Who’s winning the Elections on Facebook: Key U.S. Senatorial and Congressional Races A Study by www.ElectionArena.com September 13, 2010 Background – Facebook and Elections – In Jan 2010, Scott Brown won against Martha Coakley in the Special Elections for the Massachusetts U.S. Senate seat vacated by the passing of U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy – At the time of the elections, Brown had close to 100K supporters on his Facebook page, compared to around 16K on Coakley’s page – Heralded as a brilliant social media campaign, it prompted more and more candidates to invest in social media towards the Mid Term Elections 8 weeks before the elections, we checked: - Who is doing better on Facebook? - Can Facebook pages predict the election results? - How does it compare to the NY Times Race Ratings, and to 538’s Model? U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook Overall, U.S. Senate Republican Candidates are doing much better than Democrats on Facebook - Even if we exclude McCain as an outlier (with 668K Supporters), Republicans are still 75% of Total Direct Supporters for Major Party U.S. Senate Races on Facebook (3 times as many Republican supporters as there are Democratic ones) Democrats McCain Supporters Republicans - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Congressional Elections - Supporters on Facebook Overall, U.S. Congressional Republican Candidates are also doing better than Democrats on Facebook - Republicans hold 63% of Total Direct Supporters for Major Party U.S. Congressional Races on Facebook* Democrats Republicans - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 * Included only the “99 Seats in Play” according to the NY Times website Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission Notable U.S. Senatorial Races Predictions 538 Facebook State Candidates NY Times Model Supporters 86% Republicans out of Marco Rubio 56% chance Florida Toss Up Total Direct Supporters for Republican win Kendrick Meek Race on Facebook 83% Republicans out of Sharron Angle 54% chance Nevada Toss Up Total Direct Supporters for Democratic win Harry Reid Race on Facebook 68% Republicans out of Dino Rossi Leaning 54% chance Washington Total Direct Supporters for Republican win Patty Murray Democratic Race on Facebook 74% Republicans out of Rob Portman 88% chance Ohio Toss Up Total Direct Supporters for Democratic win Lee Fisher Race on Facebook Notable U.S. Congressional Races Predictions State/ 538 Facebook Candidates NY Times District Model Supporters Alan Grayson 90% Democrats out of Florida 8 CD Toss Up 59% chance Republican win Total Direct Supporters for Daniel Webster Race on Facebook Allen Boyd 80% Republicans out of Florida 2 CD Toss Up 59% chance Democratic win Total Direct Supporters for Steve Southerland Race on Facebook Ron Klein Leaning 95% Republicans out of Florida 22 CD 57% chance Democratic win Total Direct Supporters for Allen West Democratic Race on Facebook Glenn Nye 94% Republicans out of Virginia 2 CD Toss Up 59% chance Republican win Total Direct Supporters for Scott Rigell Race on Facebook Joe Donnelly 73% Republicans out of Indiana 2 CD Toss Up 66% chance Democratic win Total Direct Supporters for Jackie Walorski Race on Facebook Baron Hill 77% Republicans out of Indiana 9 CD Toss Up 58% chance Republican win Total Direct Supporters for Todd Young Race on Facebook Harry Mitchell 74% Democrats out of Arizona 5 CD Toss Up 66% chance Republican win Total Direct Supporters for David Schweikert Race on Facebook Notable U.S. Congressional Races Predictions – Cont’ State/ 538 Facebook Candidates NY Times District Model Supporters Bobby Bright Leaning 80% Republicans out of Alabama 2 CD 74% chance Republican win Total Direct Supporters for Martha Roby Democratic Race on Facebook Scott Murphy Leaning 82% Republicans out of New York 20 CD 72% chance Democratic win Total Direct Supporters for Chris Gibson Democratic Race on Facebook Is it only good campaigning on Facebook by Republicans, or are we going to see surprises In November? U.S. Congressional Primaries Predictions State / District Republican Candidates Democratic Candidates Dan Kapanke (97%) Wisconsin 3 CD Bruce Evers Sean Duffy (98%) Julie Lassa (99%) Wisconsin 7 CD Daniel Mielke Joe Reasbeck Glenn Urquhart (42%) Delaware AL Michele Rollins (41%) New Hampshire Frank Guinta (80%) 1 CD Richard Ashooh Charles Bass (47%) New Hampshire Anne McLane Kuster (64%) Jennifer Horn (36%) Katrina Swett 2 CD Robert Giuda (17%) Massachusetts Jeffrey Perry (73%) William Keating (61%) 10 CD Joseph Malone Robert O’Leary Andy Harris (57%) Maryland 1 CD Rob Fisher Charles Djou (88%) Hawaii 1 CD John Giuffre U.S. Senatorial Primaries Predictions State Republican Candidates Democratic Candidates Ron Johnson (79%) Wisconsin Dave Westlake Christine O’Donnell (73%) Delaware Michael Castle New Bill Binnie (53%) Kelly Ayotte (28%) Hampshire Ovide Lamontagne (12%) Garry Berntsen (68%) New York Jay Townsend Eric Wargotz (42%) Barbara Mikulski (98%) Maryland James Rutledge (39%) Christopher Garner Stephens Dempsey (13%) Cam Cavasso (86%) Daniel Inouye (82%) Hawaii John Roco Andrew Woerner Luckily, for these we only need to wait a few more days Key U.S. Senatorial Races - Details U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Florida NY Times Toss Up 538 Model 56% chance Republican win - Marco Rubio is poised to win the Elections with more than 5 times as many Facebook supporters as Facebook 86% Republicans out of Total Kendrick Meek’s Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Marco Rubio Kendrick Meek - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Nevada NY Times Toss Up 538 Model 54% chance Democratic win - Sharron Angle is poised to win the Elections with more than 5 times as many Facebook supporters as Facebook 83% Republicans out of Total Harry Reid’s Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Sharron Angle Harry Reid - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Ohio NY Times Toss Up 538 Model 88% chance Republican win - Rob Portman is poised to win the Elections with nearly 3 times as many Facebook supporters as Lee Facebook 74% Republicans out of Total Fisher’s Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Rob Portman Lee Fisher - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Washington NY Times Leaning Democratic 538 Model 54% chance Republican win - Dino Rossi is poised to win the Elections with more than twice as many Facebook supporters as Patty Facebook 68% Republicans out of Total Murray’s Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Dino Rossi Patty Murray - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Wisconsin NY Times Toss Up 538 Model 64% chance Democratic win - Seems like Ron Johnson will win the GOP primaries - Russ Feingold is poised to win the Elections Facebook 70% Democrats out of Total Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Russ Feingold 79% out of Total Direct Ron Johnson Republican Supporters for Race on Facebook Dave Westlake - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Delaware NY Times Leaning Republican 538 Model 75% chance Republican win - Seems like Christine O’Donnell will win the GOP primaries Facebook 86% Republicans out of Total - She is also poised to win the Elections Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Chris Coons 73% out of Total Christine O'Donnell Direct Republican Supporters for Race on Facebook Michael N. Castle - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New Hampshire NY Times Toss Up 538 Model 67% chance Republican win - Seems like Bill Binnie will win the GOP primaries - He is also poised to win the Elections Facebook 79% Republicans out of Total Direct Supporters for Race on Supporters Facebook Paul W. Hodes 53% out of Total Direct Bill Binnie Republican Supporters for Race on Facebook Kelly Ayotte 28% Ovide Lamontagne 12% Jim Bender 6% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics.