FEWS NET/WFP Joint Trip Report Activity Name: WFP- FEWS NET Joint mid-Belg season assessment Reported by: Zerihun Mekuria (FEWS NET) and Alemu Berhe (WFP) Dates of travel: 22 to 30 April, 2015 Area Visited: North Wollo, South Wollo and North Shewa zones of Amhara Region Reporting date: 02 May, 2015 Highlights of the findings: The onset of the February to May Belg 2015 has been delayed by more than six weeks in North and South Wollo zones and the rain started towards the end of March (20 – 25 March) except for the North Shewa zone where the current Belg started around mid-January and resumed in mid-March for about three to four days. The amount of the rainfall is ranges from low to heavy but distribution is uneven. In all Belg benefiting areas of northeastern Amhara, it has been unusually warmer and drier since mid-March. Except for the timely planting in mid-January in some areas in North Shewa zone, Belg planting as well delayed by about six to eight weeks in most highlands of northeastern Amhara. Delay on the onset of Belg rains and prolonged drier periods in the season has resulted in a much below average planting coverage where the current planting is about 42%, 51% and 26% of the normal area is planted in North Wollo, South Wollo and North Shewa zones respectively. Except for few crops planted in January in North Shewa zone which are currently at fruit setting stage, most of the crops planted are at early vegetative stage and some seeds remained aborted. Crops at the fruit setting stage are likely to survive and those at the vegetative stage have a minimal chance to survive with low yielding should the rain resumed in early May. Normal Meher 2014 harvest favoured the availability livestock feed from crop residue and pasture. However, in particular in the highlands of North and South Wollo zones the crop residue reserve is depleted. In the highlands of North and South Wollo zone, farmers are opting to alternative strategies to cope with the animal feed shortage. Market supply for both major staple food (sorghum and maize) which are transported from the surplus producing areas. Market price for maize and sorghum which are supplied by traders are continuously declining since September 2014 in North and South Wollo and North Shewa zones. Although price for other locally grown crops like barley and wheat has shown some increases, it has been observed that the price of pulses has increased significantly in all markets; in particular the increase in the lentils price is very sharp. Livestock supply is normal and price is stable or showing a slight increase. Labour supply has shown an increasing trend, despite a limited demand in the market. However, the wage rate for unskilled labour remained stable. Even though six rounds of relief assistance was planned for 2014 Belg beneficiaries, only two rounds of assistance was provided this far. From 2015 allocations, three rounds of PSNP resources were distributed to beneficiaries in North and South Wollo Zones so far. However, 15% contingency resource was released only for Dawunt Woreda. On the other hand, 3 – 4 rounds of PSNP cash and 20% of contingency was distributed to beneficiaries in South Wollo Zone. For North Shoa Zone, 3 – 4 rounds of PSNP resource were distributed and it is only for Gishierabel Woreda that 15% contingency has been released . Though Meher 2015 beneficiaries caseload is notified for most of the eligible woredas, some woredas did not completed targeting so far. No relief assistance for the 2015 is dispatched/distributed in all the visited Page 1 of 9 woredas and some are even concerned about the notified caseload is being lower than the scale of the problem. Belg Rainfall Progress: As per the normal historical trend, Belg rainfall usually starts in mid-January in most northeastern Belg receiving areas of Amhara Region. February to May Belg 2015 rainfall has been delayed by about two months in most Belg benefitting areas of North and South Wollo zones. Despite a highly erratic and very small spatial coverage of 1 or 2 days shower rainfall in mid-February, Belg has started in around 23 to 24 March 2015. North and South Wollo zones have received three to five days rainfall during 23 to 28 of March where the amount is varies from heavy to light rainfall. However, the amount and distribution in North Shewa zone highland Belg benefitting areas is much better compared to North and South Wollo zones, although the cumulative is still below from the historical average. Tarmaber, Menz Gera and Menz Mamma woreda highlands in the North Shewa zone received rain sufficient for land preparation and planting in around mid-January 2015. These areas received 3 to 4 days of rains in January where many farmers used it for land preparation and planting. There has also been 2 to3 days of rainfall which was rated as low in some parts in February. An improved amount and distribution of rainfall resumed in mid-March where most of the Belg benefitting areas received rains for about 4 to 5 days and farmers used this opportunity for another wide scale of planting. In all Belg rainfall receiving areas of northeastern Amhara, it has been warmer and drier since mid-March. Belg Season Agricultural Activities and Crop Performances: North Wollo Zone: In North Wollo, Belg season has contributed for about 11.8% of total cultivated land (Belg+Meher) and for about 8.8% of the total Zonal production in 2014. The 2015 Belg season planting was late by more than a month from normal year due to late onset of rainfall. Even though Wadla, Meket and Gidan Woredas have received showers of rainfall on February, most Woredas (Gubalafto, Gidan, Habru, Lasta and Wadla) received adequate moisture for planting of crops on 19 – 21 March 2015. In general, the rainfall was low in amount and poor in its distribution as well as experienced longer dry spells. These have caused the area planted to significantly reduce. Accordingly, about 13842 hectares of land (42.5% of ploughed land) was planted mostly with Barley. About 50% of the planted area was sown beyond the normal planting window. About 31615 hectares of land (which is more than double of this year) was planted in 2014.One can expect a drastic reduction in Belg production from such decline in planting Page 2 of 9 coverage for this year. In addition, low productivity due to moisture stress could be another phenomenon to be expected in the near future. The planted crops are currently at seedling and vegetative growth stage. Only early planted Barley is resisting the moisture stress. Most crops in Gubalafto, Wadla and Meket Woredas are starting to wilt. To the extent, about 486 hectares of Barley have not germinated and 446 hectares was already wilted in Meket Woreda. As per the focus group discussion with farmers and Woreda Early Warning (EW) people in Gubalafto, Wadla and Meket Woredas, as well as Zonal DPFSPCO, the existing crops that are at seedling and vegetative growth stages would not survive unless rains received during beginning of May. Eventhough precipitations received, the crop production is expected to be below normal. Belg season moisture stress has influenced the land preparation for long cycle Meher crops as well. Barley crop at seedling stage in Denkana Kebele of Meket Woreda – North Wollo Zone South Wollo Zone: Belg season contributed for about 17.1% of the total cultivated land and for about 12.4% of total production (Belg + Meher) in 2014. Desssie Zuria, Legambo, Delanta and Tenta Woredas are almost totally Belg dependent Woredas. Most Woredas received adequate rainfall for planting on 16 – 19 March 2015, which is late by more than a month. However, showers of rainfall were also reported on January and February that enabled to plant in few areas in Legambo and Desssie zuria Woredas. Accordingly, only about 53576 hectares (53.2% of ploughed land) was planted this year with different crops like Barley, Wheat, Wild Oats, Field peas, Fava beans and Flax within the whole Zone. This area coverage was 58.3% of last year achievement. Especially some Kebeles in Desssie zuria Woreda missed planting due to serious moisture stress. The existing crops can survive if and only if they receive rainfall during the first week of May. Even though the Belg season planting window is over, Ginbotie (variety of Barley crop) can be planted in some sloppy areas. The overall planted land for 2015 Belg season is very low as compared to previous years and with the prevailing moisture stress in all Woredas, the expected production is likely to be below normal. Page 3 of 9 Prepared land that has missed planting at Geragnmeda of Dessiezuria Woreda – S.Wollo Zone North Shewa: The Belg season has contributed for about 10.8% of total cultivated land (Belg + Meher) and for about 5.7% of total production in 2014. Planting was performed in January, February and March following showers of rain in different Woredas. Out of the total planted 18504 hectares of land (26.4% of ploughed area), 8735 hectares was planted in January, 995 hectares in February and 8774 hectares in March. The main crops planted include: barley, teff, and some pulses. Based on the rainfall pattern, the crop performance varies from place to place. Those crops planted in January (especially Barley) are at flowering and fruit setting stage and can survive with low/without moisture but will end with low productivity. The crops planted in February are at vegetative stage and can survive subjected to the availability of rains in the beginning of May.