Foreword This report provides advice to Ministers on the options open to the UK in the field of space exploration. It was agreed by the Minister for Science and Innovation and the Terms of Reference were approved by the Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills in May 2008. The report builds on the advice offered to BNSC by the UK Space Exploration Working Group in September 2007 and takes account of reports from other expert bodies and discussions with international partners and other experts. The work was carried out by a small team seconded in to BNSC. The economic analysis was carried out by London Economics who were selected by a competitive bid. The review was overseen by a Steering Committee taken from BNSC, STFC and DIUS1, and including an independent member. Review team Jeremy Curtis (STFC) – Review Leader Prof Louise Harra (Mullard Space Science Laboratory, UCL) Prof John Zarnecki (Open University) Prof Monica Grady (Open University) For London Economics Charlotte Duke – Economics Team Leader Rodney Buckland (independent consultant) Steering Committee Prof Keith Mason (Chairman UK Space Board, CEO STFC) – Chairman Dr David Williams (DG BNSC) Dr David Parker (Director Space Science and Exploration, BNSC) Mark Beatson (Head of Science and Innovation Analysis, DIUS, now BIS) Lord Alec Broers (independent member) 1 DIUS merged with BERR in June 2009 to create the Department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) 2 IN CONFIDENCE Table of contents 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 7 1.1 The issue ........................................................................................................ 7 1.2 Timing ............................................................................................................ 7 1.3 Options ........................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Background and Rationale ............................................................................. 8 1.5 Analysis.......................................................................................................... 8 1.6 Option 1 – Reduced option .......................................................................... 10 1.7 Option 2 – The current position ................................................................... 12 1.8 Option 3 – Enhanced robotic programme .................................................... 12 1.9 Option 4 – Integrated human and robotic programme ................................. 13 1.10 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 15 2 Background and issues for the UK ...................................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Overview of this report ................................................................................ 18 2.3 The wider space scene and the UK's role .................................................... 19 2.4 What is space exploration? .......................................................................... 21 2.5 International space exploration scene .......................................................... 25 2.6 Plans of other nations ................................................................................... 28 2.7 Commercial players ..................................................................................... 31 2.8 Opportunities for the UK and UK strengths ................................................ 33 2.9 Use of space for skills and education ........................................................... 34 2.10 Current UK space policy and opportunities ................................................. 37 2.11 Choices for the UK ...................................................................................... 38 2.12 Summary Points ........................................................................................... 38 3 Options for UK investment in space exploration ................................................. 40 3.1 Implementation of options ........................................................................... 41 3.2 Option 1: Reduced option ............................................................................ 44 3.3 Option 2: Current baseline option ................................................................ 46 3.4 Option 3: Enhanced robotic option .............................................................. 50 3.5 Option 4: Human and robotic option ........................................................... 57 4 Summary .............................................................................................................. 68 4.1 Options considered....................................................................................... 68 4.2 Synthesis of benefits .................................................................................... 69 4.3 Meeting Government aims ........................................................................... 77 UK Space Exploration Review 3 4.4 Resources required ....................................................................................... 79 4.5 Delivery........................................................................................................ 81 4.6 Timing .......................................................................................................... 81 4.7 Partners ........................................................................................................ 82 4.8 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 84 Appendix A Terms of Reference ...................................................................... 86 A.1 Summary .............................................................................................. 86 A.2 Purpose ................................................................................................. 86 A.3 Background .......................................................................................... 87 A.4 Global context ...................................................................................... 87 A.5 Timing .................................................................................................. 89 A.6 Objectives ............................................................................................ 89 A.7 Methodology ........................................................................................ 90 Appendix B Plans of other nations ................................................................... 92 B.1 Europe .................................................................................................. 92 B.2 France ................................................................................................... 93 B.3 Germany ............................................................................................... 93 B.4 Italy ...................................................................................................... 93 B.5 United States ........................................................................................ 93 B.6 Canada.................................................................................................. 95 B.7 Japan .................................................................................................... 95 B.8 China .................................................................................................... 96 B.9 Russia ................................................................................................... 97 B.10 India ..................................................................................................... 97 Appendix C Details of options and costs ......................................................... 98 C.1 Options for UK investment in space exploration ................................. 98 C.2 Component elements of each option .................................................... 98 C.3 Detailed cost figures .......................................................................... 102 Appendix D Economic analysis ..................................................................... 107 D.1 Business opportunities enabled by each option ................................. 107 D.2 Case studies ........................................................................................ 111 Case study 1: Lunar drilling ....................................................................... 111 Case Study 2: Low-cost launch technology ............................................... 112 Case Study 3: Lunar communications and navigation ............................... 113 Case Study 4: Oxygen production on the Moon ........................................ 114 Case Study 5: Autonomous robots ............................................................. 115 Case Study 6: Medical applications ........................................................... 116 Case Study 7: Mini magnetospheres for radiation protection .................... 116 Appendix E Meeting the Government's Public Service Agreements............. 118 Appendix F Abbreviations ............................................................................. 123 Appendix G Acknowledgements .................................................................... 124