Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Open Access Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 1301–1342, 2014 Hydrology and www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/11/1301/2014/ Earth System doi:10.5194/hessd-11-1301-2014 HESSD © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Discussions 11, 1301–1342, 2014 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Flow regime change Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS if available. in an Endorheic basin in Southern Ethiopia Flow regime change in an Endorheic F. F. Worku et al. basin in Southern Ethiopia Title Page F. F. Worku1,4,5, M. Werner1,2, N. Wright1,3,5, P. van der Zaag1,5, and S. Demissie6 Abstract Introduction 1UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands 2Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands Conclusions References 3 University of Leeds, School of Civil Engineering, Leeds, UK Tables Figures 4Arba Minch University, P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia 5Department of Water Resources, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands J I 6IWMI Nile Basin and East Africa sub-regional office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia J I Received: 29 December 2013 – Accepted: 18 January 2014 – Published: 29 January 2014 Back Close Correspondence to: F. F. Worku ([email protected]) Full Screen / Esc Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1301 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract HESSD Endorheic basins, often found in semi-arid and arid climates, are particularly sensitive to changes in climatological fluxes such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff, re- 11, 1301–1342, 2014 sulting in variability of river flows as well as of water levels in end-point lakes that are 5 often present. In this paper we apply the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) to Flow regime change characterise change to the natural flow regime of the Omo-Ghibe basin in Southern in an Endorheic basin Ethiopia. This endorheic basin is considered relatively pristine, with the basin being the in Southern Ethiopia main source of flow to Lake Turkana, the end-point lake in the East-African rift valley. The water level in Lake Turkana shows significant fluctuation, but an increasing trend F. F. Worku et al. 10 can be observed over the past 20 yr. The reasons are currently not well understood. Of the five groups of metrics in the IHA, only those related to magnitude were found to show significant trends, with the main trend being the increase of flow during the dry Title Page season. This trend was not reflected in climatological drivers such as rainfall, evapo- Abstract Introduction ration, and temperature (which shows an increasing trend), but rather is attributed to 15 the substantial changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) in the basin. The impact Conclusions References on the basin hydrology is apparent mainly in the more humid part of the basin. The Tables Figures significant shift from forest and woodland to grassland and cropland results in a de- crease of actual evaporation and subsequent increase in (dry season) runoff. The long term trend of the increasing levels in lake Turkana are related to these trends in dry J I 20 season flows, while shorter term fluctuations of the lake levels are attributed primarily J I to anomalies in consecutive wet and dry season rainfall. Back Close 1 Introduction Full Screen / Esc Understanding the hydrology of a river and its historical flow characteristics is essential Printer-friendly Version for water resources planning, developing ecosystem services, and carrying out environ- Interactive Discussion 25 mental flow assessments. Key hydrological variables can be used to characterise the natural flow regime (NFR) of a river. These can be assessed statistically to understand 1302 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | the extent of change to that flow regime and support of hydrological and ecological assessment for ecosystem conservation (Carlisle et al., 2010). HESSD The NFR approach was introduced in aquatic ecology to support the conservation 11, 1301–1342, 2014 and restoration of ecosystems. It is defined based on five major indicators; magnitude, 5 duration, timing, frequency and variability (Richter et al., 1996; Poff et al., 1997b), and has recently been widely used in hydrology to analyse the variability and characteristics Flow regime change of stream flow as well as to help determine key parameters favourable to biota in the in an Endorheic basin river basin (Poff et al., 1997a; Stanford et al., 1996). in Southern Ethiopia Additional to characterising the NFR, the parameters used to describe the NFR sup- F. F. Worku et al. 10 port the analysis of change resulting from changing climatological and hydrological characteristics (Poff et al., 1997a; Assani et al., 2010). Anthropogenic activities such as damming, impounding, land use land cover (LULC) change, diversion and abstrac- Title Page tion of water and geomorphological change can impact the natural flow regime. Longer term climate change also influences hydrological flows (Risbey and Entekhabi, 1996; Abstract Introduction 15 Sankarasubramanian et al., 2001). The NFR governs the fundamental nature of streams as variations in flow regulate Conclusions References the taxonomic composition and abundance of aquatic organisms (Hart et al., 2002; Tables Figures Beche et al., 2006), and can thus be considered as a template for the spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystems (Poff and Ward, 1989; Horwitz, 1978; Schlosser J I 20 and Angermeier, 1995; Poff and Allan, 1995; Pusey et al., 2000). In the analysis of the flow regime and its ecological functions, it is important to give due attention to high J I and low flow events, their magnitude, duration, timing, frequency and rate of change Back Close because these parameters are ecologically relevant and impose critical stresses and opportunities for a wide array of riverine species (Poff et al., 1997b). Full Screen / Esc 25 Though the parameters used to define the NFR can be used as an indication of change in a river basin, these do not provide information as to the cause of those Printer-friendly Version changes. Several studies have focused on trends in stream flow characteristics and found the drivers of these changes to include changes to rainfall distributions and pat- Interactive Discussion terns, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change and human activities such as abstraction, 1303 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | damming, as well as climate change (Adnan and Atkinson, 2011; Rientjes et al., 2011a; Van Kirk and Naman, 2008). HESSD While most of these studies focus on flow regime classification (Harris et al., 2000; 11, 1301–1342, 2014 Krasovkaia, 1997; Gottschalk, 1985; Haines et al., 1988) and restoration of basins 5 impacted by damming, diversion and abstraction (Poff and Zimmerman, 2010), few basins that are as yet undisturbed have been assessed (Poff et al., 1997b). This holds Flow regime change equally for basins that are endorrheic. Endorheic or closed basins are mostly located in an Endorheic basin in semi arid to arid climates and often have a terminal lake. The water balance in in Southern Ethiopia these terminal lakes is dominated by a high evaporation loss (up to 95–100 % of the F. F. Worku et al. 10 inflow) as in Lake Turkana, the Okavango basin, Lake Chad, the Aral Sea and several other endorheic basins (Cretaux et al., 2010; Wolski et al., 2005; Avery, 2010; Kadukin and Klige, 1991; Yuretich and Cerling, 1983). The water levels in these lakes typically Title Page show a highly seasonal variability, with longer term trends in water levels attributed to changing climate such as changing rainfall patterns, global warming and human Abstract Introduction 15 influences like LULC change (World Bank, 2006; Magole et al., 2009; Hopson, 1982). The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) is a software program that can be Conclusions References applied in establishing the flow regime indicators, as well as testing for trends and Tables Figures changes in the flow regime (The Nature Conservancy, 2009). Several options for para- metric and non-parametric statistical tests are available in the model. The model anal- J I 20 yses 67 hydro-ecologically important indicators using a daily streamflow data as an input. The IHA models have been applied in several basins throughout the world to J I understand the NFR and to characterise the anthropogenic and climate impacts on Back Close water resources of the riverine system and to analyse environmental flows (Maidment and Hersh, 2006). The model can be applied to any type of daily hydrologic data, such Full Screen / Esc 25 as stream flow, river stage, ground water levels, or lake levels. It provides a powerful means for hydrologic data analysis and can be used to summarise long periods of Printer-friendly Version daily hydrologic data into a much more manageable and graphically illustrative set of hydrologic indices (The Nature Conservancy, 2009). Interactive Discussion 1304 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Several researchers have demonstrated how LULC change impacts streamflow. Wooldridge et al. (2001) used a simple model for forest and non-forest and its hy- HESSD drologic response. Lorup et al. (1998) applied model and statistical tests to investigate 11, 1301–1342, 2014 the change in hydrological response due to LULC change. LULC change such as the 5 conversion of forest land to crop land resulted in an increase of flow due to reduction of evaporation and infiltration (Fissekis, 2007; Newson, 1997; Rost et al., 2008; Pikou- Flow regime change nis et al., 2003). Okie et al. (2011) reach a similar conclusion on the impact of LULC in an Endorheic basin change on precipitation, potential evaporation and streamflow by using a simple water in Southern Ethiopia balance based on the Budyko equations (Budyko, 1974).