ZIMBABWE: THE ROAD TO REFORM OR ANOTHER DEAD END? Africa Report N°173 – 27 April 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. DEVELOPMENTS UNDER THE INCLUSIVE GOVERNMENT ............................. 2 A. GPA REFORM PROGRESS ............................................................................................................. 3 B. OUTSTANDING ISSUES .................................................................................................................. 6 C. RE-RUN OF THE 2008 ELECTION VIOLENCE? ................................................................................ 8 III. CONSTITUTION-MAKING ......................................................................................... 11 A. GPA PROVISIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ........................................................... 11 B. FUNDING .................................................................................................................................... 12 C. ALL-STAKEHOLDERS CONFERENCE ............................................................................................ 12 D. KEY ISSUES ................................................................................................................................ 13 1. Executive authority .................................................................................................................... 13 2. Appointment and oversight of security services ........................................................................ 14 3. Land ........................................................................................................................................... 14 4. Bill of Rights .............................................................................................................................. 14 5. Citizenship ................................................................................................................................. 14 6. Voting ........................................................................................................................................ 14 E. THE OUTREACH PROGRAM ........................................................................................................ 15 F. POLITICAL PARTY ENGAGEMENT ............................................................................................... 17 G. PROGNOSES AND POSSIBILITIES ................................................................................................. 17 IV. SADC AND THE AU ...................................................................................................... 21 V. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 24 APPENDICES A. MAP OF ZIMBABWE ......................................................................................................................... 00 B. CONSTITUTIONALISM IN ZIMBABWE: 1980-2000 ............................................................................. 00 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 00 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON AFRICA SINCE 2008 ..................................................... 00 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 00 Africa Report N°173 27 April 2011 ZIMBABWE: THE ROAD TO REFORM OR ANOTHER DEAD END? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANU- tary approval and a referendum, every step presents oppor- PF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s tunity for opposition, delay and obfuscation. much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s Both MDC parties argue that COPAC must finish its work call for early elections has increased fears of a return to before elections are held, but ZANU-PF says elections 2008’s violence. Prime Minister Tsvangirai has appealed can proceed with or without a new constitution and links for help from the region. Eventual elections are inevitable, its cooperation on democratic reforms to removal of tar- but without credible, enforceable reforms, Zimbabwe faces geted international sanctions, over which the parties have another illegitimate vote and prospects of entrenched po- no control. In late February 2011, the facilitation team’s larisation and crisis. GPA guarantors – the African Union visit to Harare resulted in a commitment from the three (AU) and the Southern African Development Community party leaders to implement their August 2010 agreement (SADC) and its South African-led facilitation team – have on outstanding GPA issues. This did not include a com- an uphill battle to secure implementation. ZANU-PF is mitment to the sequence of elections after a constitutional increasingly confident it can intimidate opponents and referendum. Nevertheless, having failed to produce an frustrate reform, and there is waning faith, internally and agreed plan themselves, the party leaders deferred to the externally, in MDC-T capacities. Mugabe’s health and facilitators to produce a roadmap for pre-election action. ZANU-PF succession turmoil are further complications. Without stronger international pressure on ZANU-PF, the The GPA guarantors and the facilitation team have until tenuous current coalition may collapse, triggering further very recently shied from addressing poor progress directly. violence and grave consequences for southern Africa. On 31 March 2011, however, the SADC troika (Namibia, Mozambique and Zambia) took note of the lack of pro- The GPA, signed by the three political parties (ZANU-PF, gress in GPA implementation and related matters and the MDC-T and MDC-M) in September 2008, was intended rise in levels of violence and intimidation and laid out to provide a foundation for response to the multiple politi- steps that must now be taken to address the situation. This cal and economic crises, but it has become a battleground is a significant development that illustrates a public hard- for control of the country’s future. As in 2008, ZANU-PF’s ening of attitudes and increasing frustration within the ability, in partnership with the unreformed security sector regional organisation toward the GPA signatories, in par- leadership (the “securocrats”), to thwart a democratic ticular ZANU-PF. The MDC-T welcomed the commu- transfer of power remains intact. The state media is still niqué, which is a direct response to the multiple grievances grotesquely unbalanced, and the criminal justice system it as well as civil society groups have expressed. ZANU- continues to be used as a weapon against ZANU-PF PF and Mugabe have countered that they will not tolerate opponents, in particular the MDC-T. external interference, even from neighbours. The next few months will determine whether SADC can follow its words The centrepiece of GPA reforms is a parliament-led consti- by producing action that advances the reform agenda and tution-making process under the direction of the Constitu- prospects for a sustainable transition. That in turn will tion Parliamentary Affairs (Select) Committee (COPAC). indicate whether the conditions necessary for credible That body launched an outreach program in the latter half elections exist. of 2010, but several civil society organisations and the MDC-T criticise it for falling far short of being inclusive The worsening climate of fear and violence means secu- and open and accuse ZANU-PF of having captured and rity sector reform (SSR) should be the most immediate manipulated the process. Many Zimbabweans, however, challenge. In addition, important institutions need to be still consider the constitution-writing exercise important strengthened, including parliamentary committees and the for moving the country forward. While drafting has begun, Human Rights, Media and Electoral Commissions. These leading toward an all-stakeholders conference, parliamen- measures should be supplemented by continued support for civil society to engage with those bodies as set out in Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End Crisis Group Africa Report N°173, 27 April 2011 Page ii the GPA. Until the draft constitution is produced, how- RECOMMENDATIONS ever, it is unlikely that even the limited SSR contained in the GPA will be meaningfully addressed. To the Inclusive Government formed pursuant to the GPA: The facilitation team recognises that it needs a constant presence in Zimbabwe. Its roadmap should propose an 1. Cooperate fully with the recommendations in the audit of what has and has not been done, what the parties communiqué of the 31 March 2011 SADC summit of can and cannot achieve. If further power-sharing is inevi- the Organ Troika on Politics, Defence and Security table, a pragmatic assessment of the current arrangement’s Cooperation. failure is needed. The guarantors and facilitation team have relied on the Joint Monitoring and Implementation 2. Make finalisation of the COPAC constitution exer- Committee (JOMIC), set up by the GPA – four members cise a priority, including by identifying and utilising from each of the three signatory parties – for evaluations, available resources and support from the GPA guaran- but it has not fulfilled