Contested The Sino-Indian Competition in Burma by Ivan Lidarev B.A. History, Asian Studies, Global and International Studies May 2008, Bard College A Thesis submitted to The Faculty of The Elliot School of International Affairs of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of International Affairs January 31, 2013 Thesis directed by Deepa M. Ollapally Associate Research Professor of International Affairs © Copyright 2013 by Ivan Lidarev All rights reserved ii Dedication The author wishes to dedicate this thesis to his parents, Dimitar Lidarev and Ekaterina Lidareva iii Acknowledgments Many people have contributed to this thesis. I would like to thank Dr. David Steinberg who generously helped me understand the complexities of Burmese politics and Sino- Burmese relations and encouraged me with my work. I also want to extend my gratitude to Dr. Matthew Walton who read through much of this thesis and helped me with invaluable edits, corrections and suggestions. Dr. Christina Fink was also very kind to help me get a better grasp of political transition that Myanmar has been passing through in recent years. I also would like to extend my thanks to Dr. Renaud Egreteau, Dr. Namrata Goswami, Dr. David Shambaugh, Dr. Shawn McHale and Dr. Kenton Klymer, all of who helped me with ideas, suggestions and materials. I would also like to warmly thank my two advisors, without whose valuable assistance I would not have been able to complete this work. Dr. Michael Yahuda was indeed a great help to the writing of this thesis with his vast knowledge of China and Asia, his wise comments and his sharp attention to detail. Dr. Deepa Ollapally was an outstanding thesis advisor who, with her deep understanding of Indian foreign policy, helped me navigate the stormy waters of the China-India-Burma triangle. I truly appreciate her smart and perceptive advice, her patience in reading through the endless drafts of this long thesis and her consistent moral support. I would also like to thank my parents for their constant support during the last year, particularly my mother, Ekaterina Lidareva, who proofread my entire thesis. Naturally, all mistakes and omissions in the following pages are mine. iv Abstract of Thesis CONTESTED: The Sino-Indian Competition in Burma “This thesis analyzes the Sino-Indian competition in Myanmar by focusing on the drivers of this competition, how these drivers generate competition between the two sides and how the recent liberalization of Burma’s politics will affect the competition. The work argues that the Sino-Indian competition in Burma is driven, in order of importance, by the geostrategies of the two sides, their desire to exploit Myanmar’s energy resources and their drive to gain influence in the domestic politics of their smaller neighbor. Burma’s recent liberalization and its emergence out of international isolation have made the competition between Beijing and Delhi more complex, slightly more intense and a bit more even, although the balance is still tilted in China’s favor. The thesis reaches several conclusions about the competition. It concludes that, in its essence, the competition is a question of the security of both sides and their desire to exploit Myanmar’s potential, as a transportation corridor and as an economic and energy hub. It also identifies the United States as an important influence in shaping the Sino-Indian competition in Burma. Finally, this thesis also presents Myanmar not merely as an object of the competition but rather as a subject in its own right, whose policies have major impact of the contest between Beijing and Delhi.” v Table of Contents Dedication ..................................................................................................................................................iii Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................... iv Abstract of Thesis...................................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................vii Glossary of Terms...................................................................................................................................... viii Chapter One: Introduction……………………....................................................................................... 1 Chapter Two: Background…....................................................................................................................41 Chapter Three: Geostrategy……..………….. ........................................................................................ 73 Chapter Four: Energy Competition……................................................................................................ 107 Chapter Five: Search for Influence in Burma’s Domestic Politics........................................................124 Chapter Six: Recent Developments……………………………………………………………………..144 Chapter Seven: Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………...171 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................. 188 Appendices: Abbreviations........................................................................................................................209 vi List of Figures Figure 1…………………………………………………………………………………ix Figure 2…………………………………………………………………………………74 Figure 3…………………………………………………………………………………76 Figure 4…………………………………………………………………………………86 Figure 5…………………………………………………………………………………98 vii Glossary of Terms Haat: Local marketplace Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai: A term used to describe the friendly relations between China and India in the 1950s.In Hindi it literally it means “Indo-Chinese brotherhood” Kala: Pejorative term used against Indians living in Burma. The word literally means black Pauk-Phaw: A term used to denote the close, brotherly relationship between China and Burma. It literally means “kinsfolk”. Panchsheel: The Indian name of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. In Sanskrit it literally means five virtues. Shanba: Term used to denote new Chinese immigrants to Myanmar, literally it means “new Chinese” Tatmadaw: Myanmar’s military viii Zhongnanhai: The residence of China’s top leadership. Often used to denote the Chinese government and the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party Figure 1, Myanmar: Administrative Map. Courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. Material is from the public domain. ix x Chapter One: Introduction “Geography is destiny!” This famous maxim, attributed to Napoleon, rings particularly true for Myanmar1 which is situated at the location where the cultural and political spheres of influence of China and India intersect. Geographically, Burma is part of Southeast Asia, the crossroad region where the Indian civilization encounters the Chinese one by the waters of that great maritime highway, the India Ocean, which both China and India strive to dominate. In short, Myanmar is indeed the place “where China meets India,” as Burmese author Thant Myint-U has proclaimed2. This geography has had great impact on Myanmar’s history, from Chinese invasions during the Qing Dynasty, which turned Myanmar into a tributary state, through the incorporation of Burma into the British Raj in India, to the migration of large numbers of Chinese and Indians to the country, where their descendants live to this day. As a result of this geography, modern China and modern India have seen Myanmar as part of their strategic periphery and have striven to influence it. Both sides have wanted to secure their interests in their smaller neighbor, affirm their regional preeminence and prevent other powers from gaining influence in Burma that can be used to threaten them. Following the establishment of the PRC and of ROI in the 1940s, these interests 1 Please note that this thesis uses the names Myanmar and Burma interchangeably. However, it is important to note that the official name of the Southeast Asian country was formally changed in 1989 from Burma to Myanmar. The reasons for this change are unclear but it has been speculated that the country’s military rulers believed that the new name is more ethnically inclusive and not tainted with colonial associations as the name Burma is. It is also believed that it alludes to Myanmar’s historical greatness. Nevertheless, much of the opposition has refused to accept this name change imposed by the military regime and continues,to this day, to use the name Burma. 2 This a reference to the title of one of Thant Myint-U's books, Where China meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011) 1 generated some tension between the two great powers but Burma’s policy of neutrality between the two sides, the weakness of the two giants, and their preoccupation with more important foreign policy concerns prevented this tension from escalating into a full blown competition for influence. All this changed in 1988, as a huge pro-democracy uprising against the ruling military regime drove Burma in Beijing’s hands and away from New Delhi, which had supported the uprising. The rapprochement between Beijing and Rangoon and the dramatic growth of China’s economic clout in Burma provoked a response from