The CNN Effect in Action Palgrave Macmillan Series in International Political Communication Series editor Philip Seib, Marquette University (USA) From democratization to terrorism, economic development to conflict resolution, global political dynamics are affected by the increasing pervasiveness and influence of communication media. This series examines the participants and their tools, their strategies and their impact. It offers a mix of comparative and tightly focused analyses that bridge the various elements of communication and political science included in the field of international studies. Particular emphasis is placed on topics related to the rapidly changing communication environment that is being shaped by new technologies and new political realities. This is the evolving world of international political communication. Editorial Board Members: Hussein Amin, American University in Cairo (Egypt) Robin Brown, University of Leeds (UK) Eytan Gilboa, Bar-Ilan University (Israel) Steven Livingston, George Washington University (USA) Robin Mansell, London School of Economics and Political Science (UK) Holli Semetko, Emory University (USA) Ingrid Volkmer, University of Otago (New Zealand) Books Appearing in this Series Media and the Politics of Failure: Great Powers, Communication Strategies, and Military Defeats By Laura Roselle The CNN Effect in Action: How the News Media Pushed the West toward War in Kosovo By Babak Bahador The CNN Effect in Action How the News Media Pushed the West toward War in Kosovo Babak Bahador THE CNN EFFECT IN ACTION © Babak Bahador, PhD, 2007. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2007 978-1-4039-7519-5 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-53580-4 ISBN 978-0-230-60422-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230604223 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bahador, Babak. The CNN effect in action : how the news media pushed the West toward war in Kosovo / by Babak Bahador. p. cm. Based on the author’s Ph. D. dissertation—London School of Economics. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Kosovo (Serbia)—History—Civil War, 1988–1999—Press coverage. 2. Kosovo (Serbia)—History—Civil War, 1998–1999—Mass media and the war. I. Title. DR2087.6.P72B34 2006 948.7103—dc22 2006049547 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: May 2007 10987654321 Contents List of Tables ix List of Graphs xi Foreword by Steven Livingston xiii Acknowledgments xix Introduction xxi Abbreviations xxiii PART I The CNN Effect in Theory 1 The CNN Effect 3 Defining the CNN Effect 4 What is the Agent? 5 What is Affected? 6 Effect or Effects? 7 The CNN Effect and Globalization 12 Reach 13 Density 14 Speed 17 The CNN Effect and Global Awareness 17 2 Demonstrating the CNN Effect 21 Research Approaches in the CNN Effect Literature 22 Interview-Based Approaches 22 Media-Based Approaches 24 Quantitative Approaches 26 The Policy-Media Interaction Model 27 The Challenging CNN Effect Model—A New Research Approach 31 The Quantitative Test 34 The Coding Test 34 The Policy Substance Test 35 vi CONTENTS The Linkage Test 35 The CNN Effect and Macro Influences 37 Alternatives to the CNN Effect 41 3 The CNN Effect and War 47 The People and the CNN Effect 48 The Rise of Public Opinion 49 The Military and the CNN Effect 51 The Government and the CNN Effect 53 Diplomacy and the CNN Effect 54 Foreign Policy and the CNN Effect 57 PART II The CNN Effect in Action 4 The Kosovo Crisis 67 Background 68 Macro Influences 71 Western Political Culture 71 Political Cost 72 Political Context 73 5 The Media during the Kosovo Crisis 75 The CNN Effect Media Criteria and the Kosovo Civil War 76 Incident 1: The Drenica Massacre 79 Incident 2: The Gornje Obrinje Massacre 83 Incident 3: The Racak Massacre 85 Events or Their Media Coverage? 89 The Accumulating Effect 91 6 The Government during the Kosovo Crisis—The Macro Review 97 The Quantitative Test 98 Media Coverage versus Government Actions 102 The Coding Test 108 Framing 109 Blame 111 Propensity for Intervention 121 7 The Government during the Kosovo Crisis— The Micro Review 129 Phase 1: January 1 to February 27, 1998 130 Phase 2: February 28 to March 27, 1998 131 Policy Shift after the Drenica Massacre 133 Western Decision-Making and the Media 135 CONTENTS vii Phase 3: March 28 to September 27, 1998 137 Phase 4: September 28 to October 27, 1998 142 Policy Shift after the Gornje Obrinje Massacre 143 Western Decision-Making and the Media 145 Phase 5: October 28, 1998 to January 14, 1999 147 Phase 6: January 15 to February 14, 1999 149 Policy Shift after the Racak Massacre 150 Western Decision-Making and the Media 153 Phase 7: February 15 to March 24, 1999 158 Conclusion 163 The CNN Effect and the Kosovo Intervention 163 The CNN Effect and Foreign Policy 166 Insights on the CNN Effect 169 Concluding Remarks 171 Appendix: Government Sources Coded 175 Notes 185 Bibliography 217 Index 229 This page intentionally left blank List of Tables 5.1 American Television Coverage of Kosovo on Leading Networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): January 1, 1998–March 20, 1999 78 5.2 American Television Framing of the Drenica Massacre on Leading Networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): March 5, 1998–March 11, 1998 82 5.3 American Television Framing of the Gornje Obrinje Massacre on Leading Networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): September 29, 1998–October 5, 1998 85 5.4 American Television Framing of the Racak Massacre on Leading Networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): January 16, 1999–January 22, 1999 88 5.5 Television Coverage of Kosovo Massacres versus Total Coverage on Leading Networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): March 1, 1998–March 20, 1999 90 5.6 Massacres as Proportion of Overall Death and Destruction during the Kosovo Civil War: March 1, 1998–March 20, 1999 90 5.7 American Television Coverage of Kosovo as Leading Story on Leading Networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): January 1, 1998–March 20, 1999 93 5.8 American Television Coverage of Kosovo as Leading Story versus Total Coverage in Percentiles (ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN): January 1, 1998–March 20, 1999 94 6.1 Western Government Actions Preceding the Kosovo Intervention: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 100 6.2 Review of Major Spikes in both Media Coverage and Government Actions over Kosovo: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 104 x LIST OF TABLES 6.3 Western Government Policy (Press Releases and Statements) versus Diplomacy: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 107 6.4 Review of Western Government Postmassacre Framing versus Entire Period: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 110 6.5 Western Government Framing in Press Releases and Statements: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 113 6.6 Western Government Assignment of Blame in Press Releases and Statements: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 116 6.7 Western Government Assignment of Blame in Press Releases and Statements: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 120 6.8 Western Propensity to Use Force in Press Releases and Statements: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999 124 7.1 Change in Western Policy Aspects between Phases 1 and 2 135 7.2 Change in Western Policy Aspects between Phases 2 and 3 141 7.3 Change in Western Policy Aspects between Phases 3 and 4 144 7.4 Change in Western Policy Aspects between Phases 5 and 6 153 7.5 Change in Western Policy Aspects between Phases 6 and 7 160 List of Graphs 2.1 The Challenging CNN Effect Time Line 32 2.2 The Challenging CNN Effect Model 36 3.1 Aspects of Foreign Policy during Third-Party Military Interventions 60 3.2 Different Media Effects in Relation to Policy Change in Third- Party Military Intervention 63 5.1 American Television News Coverage of Kosovo on Leading Networks 77 5.2 American Postmassacre Television Framing of the Kosovo Conflict 89 5.3 American Television Coverage of Kosovo as Leading Story versus All Coverage 92 6.1 Western Governmental Actions Related to Kosovo Preceding NATO Intervention 99 6.2 American Television Coverage of Kosovo versus Government Actions 103 6.3 Western Diplomacy and Policy Leading to NATO Intervention in Kosovo 106 6.4 Western Government Postmassacre Framing 110 6.5 Western Framing Leading to NATO Intervention in Kosovo 112 6.6 Western Assigned Blame Leading to NATO Intervention in Kosovo 115 xii LIST OF GRAPHS 6.7 The Degree of Western Blame on Serbs Leading to NATO Intervention in Kosovo 119 6.8 Western Propensity to Use Force Leading to NATO Intervention in Kosovo 123 6.9 Propensity of Clear Threat to Use of Force Leading to NATO Intervention in Kosovo 126 Foreword In the opening scene of Hamlet, Shakespeare conjures up the ethereal form of the young king’s murdered father. The ghost appears first to Marcellus and Bernardo, the two night watchmen, and to Hamlet’s friend and counselor Horatio, all of whom gaze at it with great appre- hension and dread.