AAssiiee..VViissiioonnss 3300 ______________________________________________________________________ Ampo at 50 The Faltering U.S.-Japan Relationship ______________________________________________________________________ Gavan McCormack June 2010 . Center for Asian Studies The Institut français des relations internationals (Ifri) is a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues. Headed by Thierry de Montbrial since its founding in 1979, Ifri is a non- governmental and a non-profit organization. As an independent think tank, Ifri sets its own research agenda, publishing its findings regularly for a global audience. Using an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri brings together political and economic decision-makers, researchers and internationally renowned experts to animate its debate and research activities. With offices in Paris and Brussels, Ifri stands out as one of the rare French think tanks to have positioned itself at the very heart of European debate. The opinions expressed in this text are the responsibility of the author alone. ISBN: 978-2-86592-746-3 © All rights reserved, Ifri, 2010 IFRI IFRI-BRUXELLES 27, RUE DE LA PROCESSION RUE MARIE-THERESE, 21 75740 PARIS CEDEX 15 – FRANCE 1000 – BRUXELLES – BELGIQUE Tel : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 Tel : +32 (0)2 238 51 10 Fax : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 Fax : +32 (0)2 238 51 15 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] WEBSITE: Ifri.org Japan Program, Ifri Center for Asian Studies The Japan Program of the Ifri Center for Asian Studies provides a platform for debate and the exchange of ideas among Japanese and European experts and decision makers. It also aims at strengthening the French expertise and research capability on Japan. The object- tives of the Japan Program are to: . contribute to the development of greater mutual understanding while facilitating exchanges and increasing the visibility of Japan and its national interests; . understand the dynamic of Japanese power in the wider frame of Asia’s emergence and globa- lization; . assist decision making processes by provi- ding a prospective approach based on future- oriented topics of discussion and groundbreaking analysis. Asie. Visions Asie.Visions is an electronic collection dedicated to Asia. With contri- butions by French and international experts, Asie.Visions deals with economic, strategic, and political issues. The collection aims to contri- bute to the global debate and to a better understanding of the regio- nal issues at stake. Asie.Visions is published in French and in English. Our latest publications Céline Pajon, “Understanding the Issue of U.S. Military Bases in Okinawa”, Asie.Visions 29, June 2010. Prem Shankar Jha, “A Shadow over the Himalayas: India’s Tibet Problem”, Asie.Visions 28, May 2010. John Seaman, “Energy Security, Transnational Pipelines and China’s Role in Asia”, Asie.Visions 27, April 2010. Françoise Nicolas, “Coming In From The Cold? An Update on North Korea’s External Economic Relations”, Asie.Visions 26, April 2010. 1 © Ifri G. McCormack / The Faltering U.S.-Japan Relationship Executive Summary For the last 50 years the governance of the US-Japan alliance has often been characterized by secret diplomacy and discretionary choices. In the post-war period Japan’s strategic choices have given overall priority to sustaining a strong security alliance with the United States. The preservation of the alliance has often been set above the supreme law of the land – Japan’s constitution – and above the sovereignty of the Japanese people. These practices, essentially allowing the Japanese government to evade its responsibility, have facilitated the adoption of ambivalent and contradictory policies on crucial matters of national security. The small archipelago of Okinawa, which is supporting the bulk of the US military bases in Japan, has particularly suffered from this twisted governance. Okinawa experienced discriminatory treatment under the US military jurisdiction until 1952 and, thereafter, under the authority of Tokyo. Concerns for the safety of the Okinawa people and the citizens’ repeated demands to be rid of the military bases have been disregarded. The difficult transfer of the dangerous Futenma air base in Okinawa, negotiated since 1996, has become the symbol of the complex issues surrounding the US military presence in Japan. In September 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan took office with the intention of revising the alliance in order to build “a more equal relationship with Washington”. However, the US government reacted with condescension and ire. The DPJ’s promise to relocate the Futenma base outside Okinawa resulted in the unification and strengthening of the antibase movement in the prefecture. But Tokyo’s tergiversations and the failure of Prime Minister Hatoyama to make a viable proposal to Washington turned the Japanese people against its government. As a result, the Prime Minister stepped down in early June. For the alliance to continue and strengthen through the next fifty years, both sides will have to face up to the past and reflect on the relevance of the security treaty and the governance of their relationship. 2 © Ifri G. McCormack / The Faltering U.S.-Japan Relationship Contents INTRODUCTION: Ampo 50 – Ambiguous Celebration ....................... 4 SECRET DIPLOMACY AND THE UNDEMOCRATIC MANAGEMENT OF THE ALLIANCE ................... 6 Discretionary Power: An Alliance Set “Above the Supreme Law” ............................... 6 Revelations and Disclosing of the Bilateral Secret Agreements ............................................ 7 The Ambivalent Japanese Posture toward Nuclear Weapons ............................................................ 9 More Transparency Needed against Efforts to Conceal the Truth ........................................ 10 AMPO AND OKINAWA .......................................................................... 12 The Controversies Surrounding the Retrocession of Okinawa .................................................... 12 The Nye Doctrine: No Peace Dividends for Okinawa ............. 13 The 1995 Crisis and the Futenma Saga ................................... 15 The 2006 Roadmap on US Forces Realignment ...................... 16 The 2009 Guam Treaty ............................................................... 18 ALLIES ADRIFT – THE IMPOSSIBLE REBALANCING OF THE ALLIANCE ... 20 US Resistance to the DPJ Project to Build an “Equal Relationship” .............................................. 20 DPJ to Revise the Guam Treaty, Provoking US Fury ............. 22 Revisiting Ampo: Reassessing the Role of US Forces in Okinawa ..................... 24 The DPJ’s New Stance Fuels the Anti-Base Movement in Okinawa ...................................................................................... 26 Kengai Kokugai (Outside Okinawa, Outside Japan)? DPJ’s Tergiversations on Futenma ..................................................... 27 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................... 32 ANNEXES ........................................................................................... 34 3 © Ifri G. McCormack / The Faltering U.S.-Japan Relationship Introduction: Ampo 50 – Ambiguous Celebration On 19 January 2010, the Foreign and Defense Ministers of the US and Japan, in a statement to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the signing of the treaty on mutual cooperation and security, jointly declared that “the U.S.-Japan Alliance plays an indispensable role in ensuring the security and prosperity of both the United States and Japan, as well as regional peace and stability. The Alliance is rooted in our shared values, democratic ideals, respect for human rights, rule of law and common interests. The Alliance has served as the foundation of our security and prosperity for the past half century and the Ministers are committed to ensuring that it continues to be effective in meeting the challenges of the 21st century.”1 The year of the “Golden Jubilee” anniversary of the US-Japan alliance should be an opportune time to reflect on it. Should the treaty continue unchanged, be straightened out and revised if necessary, or even ended or replaced with something else? Instead, however, such reflection is blocked by a combination of shocking revelations about the past and intense political hype and rhetoric. The 1960 “Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security”2 (commonly known, from the Japanese abbreviation for anzen hosho joyaku, as Ampo) was adopted in 1960, replacing the 1951 San Francisco “Treaty of Peace with Japan,” which was the post-war Gavan McCormack is Professor Emeritus at the Australian National University. He is an expert of modern East Asian, especially Japanese politics and intellectual, political, and environmental history. He has published numerous articles and books on the US-Japan relations, including: Client State: Japan in the American Embrace, New York and London, Verso, 2007. 1 “Joint Statement of The U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee Marking the 50th Anniversary of the Signing of The U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security,” January 19, 2010, by Minister for Foreign Affairs Okada, Minister of Defense Kitazawa, Secretary of State Clinton, Secretary of Defense Gates. http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/joint1001.html. 2 The 1960 treaty of security is a very narrow agreement for the defense of Japan (in the “Far East” according to Article 6), and has never been revised. The actual term Nichibei