Norwegian High Speed Rail Assessment 2010-2012 Summary of Phase 2 Works Jernbaneverket 26 May 2011 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared by Atkins Transport planning and Management and are intended solely for Jernbaneverket‘s information and use in relation to the Norwegian HSR Assessment Project. Atkins Transport Planning and Management assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. Document History Job number: 5101627 Document ref: NHS Ph2 Summary Report_v2.0_issued 260511.docx Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 1.0 First Draft JT TH JT WL 11/05/11 Rev 2.0 Final report incorporating JT TH JT WL 26/05/11 Client comments Client signoff Client Jernbaneverket Project Norwegian High Speed Rail Assessment Document title Summary of Phase 2 Works Job No. 5101627 Copy No. 1 Document reference Jon Tindall Address: 3100 Century Way Thorpe Park Leeds LS15 8ZB UK Email: [email protected] Telephone: +44 113 306 6010 Table of contents Chapter Pages 1. Introduction 6 1.1. This Document 6 1.2. The Study 6 1.3. Concepts to be Assessed 7 1.4. The Material 7 1.5. Structure of the Document 9 2. Market Analysis 10 2.1. Introduction 10 2.2. Subject 1: Demand Potential for HSR Services in Norway 10 2.3. Subject 2: Analysis of Expected Amount of Ticket Revenues 17 2.4. Subject 3: Passenger Choice – Preferences for Travel & Means of Transport 23 2.5. Subject 4: Location & Services of Stations/Terminals 27 2.6. Subject 5: Market Conditions for Fast Freight Trains 37 3. Rail Specific Planning and Development 43 3.1. Introduction 43 3.2. Subject 1: Further Reviews of Single Track HSR 43 3.3. Subject 2: Track Connections 45 3.4. Subject 3: Stations on HSR Lines 53 4. Technical and Safety Analyses 57 4.1. Introduction 57 4.2. Subject 1: Technical Solutions 57 4.3. Subject 2: Risk Assessment and Analysis 69 4.4. Subject 3: Assessment of High-speed railway‘s Contribution to Transportation Safety and Security 72 5. Financial and Economic Analysis 74 5.1. Introduction 74 5.2. Subject 1: Analysis of Effects of Investment within the Road and Aviation Sectors 74 5.3. Subject 2: Estimation and Assessment of Investment Costs 77 5.4. Subject 3: Funding and Operation of the Infrastructure 79 5.5. Subject 4: Socio-economic Analyses 82 5.6. Subject 5: Uncertainty Analysis 87 6. Environmental Analysis 91 6.1. Introduction 91 6.2. Subjects 1 and 2: Landscape and Environmental Intervention Effects 91 6.3. Subject 3: Effects on Energy and Noise 93 6.4. Subject 4: Climate Related Effects 96 7. Commercial and Organisational Issues 99 7.1. Introduction 99 7.2. Scope of Work in Delivering HSR 99 7.3. Subject 1: Organisational Issues 101 7.4. Subject 2: Contractual Strategy 102 7.5. Subject 3: Commercial Strategy – Scope for Self-funding 103 7.6. Lessons from Case Studies and Market Soundings 103 Appendices 105 Appendix A. The Mandate 106 A.1. Introduction and Summary 106 A.2. Background for the Assessment Task 106 A.3. Purpose and Accomplishment 107 The Norwegian High Speed Rail Assessment – Summary of Phase 2 Works | Version 2.0 | 26 May 2011 3 A.4. The Assessment Task 108 A.5. Special Assessment Topics 110 A.6. The Organising, Financing and Time Frame for the Final Report of the Assessment 112 Tables Table 1.1 – Phase 2: Work Contracts 7 Table 2.1 – Total annual demand for key corridors in Norway for main transport modes (2010) 12 Table 2.2 – Summary of Scenario D results (model testing only – not to be used for individual option assessment) 15 Table 2.3 – Values of time per hour for long-distance private travel in Norway, NOK (2009) 18 Table 2.4 – Average values of time per hour from current study, NOK (2010) 18 Table 2.5 – Mode choice effects (Oslo-Bergen) 21 Table 2.6 – Prioritisation of intermediate station stops on HSR corridors 29 Table 2.7 – NSB Passenger satisfaction survey results 2006 – 2009 30 Table 2.8 – Summary of demand and revenue for selected stopping patterns 32 Table 3.1 – Delay statistics for existing lines 44 Table 3.2 – Norwegian requirements for safety zones on platforms 54 Table 4.1 – Types of HSR track system 64 Table 4.3 – Types of HSR rolling stock 68 Table 4.4 – Residual risk related to top events, overview 70 Table 4.5 – Residual collective risk, overview 70 Table 4.6 – Residual collective risk, point estimate overview 71 Table 4.7 – Residual collective risk of personnel overview 71 Table 4.8 – Residual individual risk of passengers and 3rd persons overview 71 Table 5.1 – Potential sources of financing for Norway HSR 80 Table 5.2 – Advantages and disadvantages of different types of funding 81 Table 5.3 – Core and extended/alternative economic assessment frameworks 84 Figures Figure 2.1 – Population density in Norway by municipality 11 Figure 2.2 – HSR proposed routes 13 Figure 2.3 – Example of values of time by mode (NOK per hour) 18 Figure 2.4 – Willingness to pay (NOK per return ticket) for improved in-train services (work purposes) 19 Figure 2.5 – Willingness to pay (NOK per return ticket) for improved in-train services (non-work purposes) 20 Figure 2.6 – Oslo-Bergen: HSR fare against revenue (2024) 22 Figure 2.7 – Rail-air market share (Steer Davies Gleave, 2006) 23 Figure 2.8 – Impact of factors on attractiveness of current mode (existing air users) 24 Figure 2.9 – Impact of factors on likelihood of using HSR (existing air users) 26 Figure 2.10 – Impact of tunnels on likelihood of using HSR 27 Figure 2.11 – Potential HSR corridors in Norway 28 Figure 2.12 – Conclusions on state of readiness for HSR rail demand 31 Figure 3.1 – Simple track loop 46 Figure 3.2 – Combined passing and track loop 46 Figure 3.3 – Track loops used for temporary single-track operation 46 Figure 3.4 – Length of track loop with different turnout standard. Main signals marked with simple arrows beside the tracks. 47 Figure 3.5 – Maximum capacity for temporary single-track operation, with train speeds of 200 and 300 kph 47 Figure 3.6 – One-sided passing loop. The track loop turnouts (red) could here be given the same standard as (130 kph) as the passing loop turnouts if the loop is planned to be used for overtaking in both directions 48 Figure 3.7 – Maximum capacity for temporary single-track operation, with turnout speed fixed to 100 kph. 48 Figure 3.8 – Alternative loop lengths for an ordinary, one sided, passing loop 50 Figure 3.9 – Alternative loop lengths for a two-sided passing loop for combined overtaking and passenger stop 50 Figure 3.10 – Minimum scheduled delay at overtaking. Regional and freight trains with alternative turnout speeds (diverging track). 51 Figure 3.11 – Mean number of possible freight trains per hour 52 Figure 3.12 – Track layout for single track station with 1 stopping and 1 passing, 2 stopping, or 2 passing trains 53 Figure 3.13 – Track layout for double track station with 2 stopping and 2 passing trains 53 The Norwegian High Speed Rail Assessment – Summary of Phase 2 Works | Version 2.0 | 26 May 2011 4 Figure 3.14 – TGV station at St-Raphaël 55 Figure 3.15 – Lille, Porte de Valenciennes 56 Figure 4.1 – Ballasted track with B 70 sleepers 65 Figure 4.2 – The new ICE high-speed line Nürnberg -Ingolstadt with BÖGL system 66 Figure 5.1 – Illustration of airline responses to HSR demand abstraction 75 Figure 5.2 – Illustration of HSR's potential impact on the road sector 76 Figure 5.3 – Market segment and transport service, differentiated by time and money 76 Figure 5.4 – Summary of Life Cycle Cost Model structure 78 Figure 5.5 – Uncertainty analysis tools 88 Figure 5.6 – Foresight scenarios 89 Figure 7.1 – Key roles in an HSR project 101 The Norwegian High Speed Rail Assessment – Summary of Phase 2 Works | Version 2.0 | 26 May 2011 5 1. Introduction 1.1. This Document This document represents the Summary Report of the findings of Phase 2 of the Norwegian HSR Assessment Project. It brings together the outputs of all of the different workstreams considered in Phase 2 of the project into a single document. It is a summary document only and no interpretation of the individual reports is intended. Where practicable the original writing style of the original reports has been retained. This includes the tense used as well as the style of written English. Please note that whilst due care has been taken in producing a summary, the full reports are available at http://www.jernbaneverket.no/no/Prosjekter/Hoyhastighetsutredningen/, and should be used in any technical examination of the methodology or results by other parties. The work undertaken in Phase 2 of the Norwegian HSR Assessment Project was commissioned in September 2010, and completed in February 2011. 1.2. The Study The Norwegian Rail Administration (Jernbaneverket) has been given a mandate from the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communication to assess the issue of high-speed railways in southern Norway. The assessment shall provide recommendations on long-term strategies that will form the basis of long-distance passenger traffic in southern Norway into the future. The deadline for the assessment and recommendations to the Ministry is February 2012. The Mandate is included as Appendix A of this document.