Assessment of the Nuclear Power Industry – Final Report June 2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. For EISPC and NARUC Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Assessment of the Nuclear Power Industry Study 5: Assessment of the Location of New Nuclear and Uprating Existing Nuclear Whitepaper 5: Consideration of other Incentives/Disincentives for Development of Nuclear Power prepared for Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council and National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. Navigant Consulting, Inc. 77 South Bedford Street, Suite 400 Burlington, MA 01803 781.270.0101 www.navigant.com Table of Contents Forward ....................................................................................................................................... ix Basic Nuclear Power Concepts ................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 5 1. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Early Years – (1946-1957) ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.1.1 Shippingport ............................................................................................................................. 11 1.1.2 Power Reactor Demonstration Program ............................................................................... 13 1.2 First Privately Developed Nuclear Power Plants .............................................................................. 21 1.3 Turnkey Era ............................................................................................................................................ 23 1.4 Post Three Mile Island Period (1979-1995) ......................................................................................... 31 1.5 Deregulation (1996-Present) ................................................................................................................. 35 2. EISPC POWER MARKET OUTLOOK AND LOCATIONAL STUDY ..................... 38 2.1 Coal Plant Retirement Analysis ........................................................................................................... 40 2.2 Uprate Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 45 2.3 Cancelled Plant Locations ..................................................................................................................... 49 2.4 U.S. Nuclear Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 50 2.5 World Nuclear Outlook ........................................................................................................................ 53 3. NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION ECONOMICS .................................................... 56 3.1 Construction Costs ................................................................................................................................. 56 3.2 Operating Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 62 3.2.1 Fuel Storage ............................................................................................................................... 69 3.2.2 Fuel Cycle .................................................................................................................................. 69 4. REGULATORY ISSUES ..................................................................................................... 72 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 72 4.2 Atomic Energy Commission Era .......................................................................................................... 73 4.3 Beginning of Nuclear Regulatory Commission ................................................................................. 76 4.4 Post Three Mile Island ........................................................................................................................... 77 4.5 Shift in Regulatory Policies ................................................................................................................... 81 4.6 Impacts on Nuclear Industry Safety .................................................................................................... 86 4.7 State Regulatory Issues.......................................................................................................................... 86 4.8 International Regulatory Structures .................................................................................................... 94 5. NUCLEAR SAFETY EVENTS ........................................................................................... 96 Whitepaper 5: Consideration of other Incentives/Disincentives for Development of Nuclear Power Page i Study 5: Assessment of the Location of New Nuclear and Uprating Existing Nuclear 5.1 Overview of Emergency Planning Criteria ........................................................................................ 96 5.1.1 Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone ........................................................ 96 5.1.2 Ingestion Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone ................................................... 96 5.1.3 International Nuclear Event Scale .......................................................................................... 97 5.1.4 Radiation Exposure .................................................................................................................. 98 5.2 Accident Overviews .............................................................................................................................. 99 5.2.1 Windscale Fire ........................................................................................................................ 100 5.2.2 Three Mile Island .................................................................................................................... 103 5.2.3 Chernobyl ................................................................................................................................ 112 5.2.4 Fukushima ............................................................................................................................... 119 6. LONG-TERM FUEL STORAGE ..................................................................................... 136 6.1 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 136 6.2 Wet Storage ........................................................................................................................................... 139 6.3 Dry Cask Storage .................................................................................................................................. 141 6.4 Consent-Based Siting ........................................................................................................................... 143 6.5 Repositories ........................................................................................................................................... 146 6.6 Transportation ...................................................................................................................................... 148 7. ASSESSING NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES ................................................................ 150 7.1 Overview of Types of Nuclear Reactors ........................................................................................... 150 7.1.1 Pressurized Water Reactors .................................................................................................. 151 7.1.2 Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) .............................................................................................. 152 7.1.3 High Temperature Gas Reactors .......................................................................................... 152 7.1.4 Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors ..................................................................................... 154 7.1.5 Molten Salt Reactors............................................................................................................... 154 7.1.6 Small Modular Reactors ........................................................................................................ 155 7.2 Commercially Available Advanced Reactors .................................................................................. 155 7.2.1 Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR) ......................................................................... 155 7.2.2 Advanced Passive 1000 (AP1000) ........................................................................................ 156 7.2.3 Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) ..................................................... 157 7.2.4 Advanced CANDU Reactor 1000 (ACR-1000) ................................................................... 158 7.2.5 U.S. Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor (APWR) ......................................................... 159 7.2.6 U.S.