Report No: AUS19442 Somali Poverty Profile 2016 Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey . June, 2017 Poverty & Equity Global Practice, Africa . Standard Disclaimer: . This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: . The material in this publication is copyrighted. 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This report was prepared by Utz Pape (TTL; Economist, GPV01) with substantial contributions from Mario di Filippo (Consultant, GPV01), Gonzalo Nunez (Consultant, GPV01) and Philip Randolph Wollburg (Consultant, GPV01). The chapter about Child and Youth Poverty was written by Pamela Dale (Social Protection Specialist; UNICEF) and Gonzalo I. Nunez, funded by UNICEF. The team is grateful for inputs and comments from Pamela Dale, Luca Parisotto (Consultant, GPV01), Menaal Ebrahim (Consultant, GPV01), Syedah Iqbal (Consultant, GPV01) and Verena Phipps (Senior Social Development Specialist, GSU07) as well as the peer reviewers Kevin Carey (Lead Economist, GMF07) and Kinnon Scott (Senior Economist, GPV04). Vice President Makhtar Diop Country Director Bella Bird Senior Director Carolina Sanchez-Paramo Practice Manager Pierella Paci Task Team Leader Utz Pape CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 17 PART I: OVERVIEW OF POVERTY ..................................................................................................... 22 1. MONETARY POVERTY ........................................................................................................... 23 2. MULTIDIMENSIONAL DEPRIVATION ..................................................................................... 32 3. EVOLUTION OF WELFARE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH WEST REGION ................................ 44 PART II: DEEP DIVE INTO SELECTED TOPICS .................................................................................... 53 4. REMITTANCES ...................................................................................................................... 54 5. CHILD AND YOUTH POVERTY................................................................................................ 66 6. SOCIAL PROTECTION ............................................................................................................ 75 7. CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................... 85 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 89 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................................... 91 A. FIGURES AND TABLES ........................................................................................................... 91 B. LOWER POVERTY INCIDENCE IN THE NORTH EAST REGION ............................................... 101 C. SAMPLE AND DATA COLLECTION ....................................................................................... 103 D. CONSUMPTION AGGREGATE ............................................................................................. 113 E. RAPID CONSUMPTION METHODOLOGY ............................................................................. 119 F. LABOR STATISTICS .............................................................................................................. 125 G. REMITTANCES .................................................................................................................... 131 1 Document of the World Bank FIGURES Figure 0.1: Coverage of Somali household surveys including consumption modules. .................................................. 6 Figure 0.2: Poverty incidence in Somali regions (% of population). .............................................................................. 7 Figure 0.3: Inequality and poverty within Somali regions. ............................................................................................ 8 Figure 0.4: Evolution of poverty in the North West region. .......................................................................................... 9 Figure 0.5: Population without education. .................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 0.6: School attendance. .................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 0.7: Characteristics of recipient households. ................................................................................................... 11 Figure 0.8: Value and incidence of remittances. ......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 0.9: Poverty and hunger among recipients and non-recipients. ...................................................................... 12 Figure 0.10: Child poverty by region............................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 0.11: Youth poverty by region. ......................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 0.12: Child school attendance. ......................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 0.13: Youth school attendance. ........................................................................................................................ 14 Figure 0.14: Impact of SSNs on poverty incidence. ..................................................................................................... 16 Figure 0.15: Cost of SSNs in all the Somali regions. ..................................................................................................... 16 Figure 0.1: GDP per capita, Sub-Saharan low income countries. ................................................................................ 18 Figure 0.2: Coverage of household surveys in Somali regions. ................................................................................... 19 Figure 0.3: Coverage of the SHFS. ................................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 1.1: Cross-country comparison of poverty incidence. ...................................................................................... 24 Figure 1.2: Cross-country comparison of poverty and GDP. ....................................................................................... 24 Figure 1.3: Cross-country comparison of poverty gap. ............................................................................................... 24 Figure 1.4: Cross-country comparison of poverty gap and GDP. ................................................................................. 24 Figure 1.5: Poverty incidence. ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 1.6: Poverty gap. ............................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 1.7: Poverty severity. ........................................................................................................................................ 27 Figure 1.8: Extreme poverty. ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 1.9: Impact of a consumption shock on poverty. ............................................................................................. 28 Figure 1.10: Poverty and inequality between regions. ................................................................................................ 29 Figure 1.11: Consumption distribution. ......................................................................................................................