Thursday, Feb. 15, 2001 ! Volume 7, Number 26 Page 1 of 8 A post-Roemer look The at redistricting CDs Howey !"#$%&'()&*'(+),-*'%('./,0*120-( “Hey, I love you and your publication BUT, listen, when I read ALL that CRAP about where the Congressional Political districts are going and who will be where I JUST BUST a gut because really only one person knows and will have the final say....” - Indiana House Speaker John Gregg to HPR “Dear Mr. Speaker...Thanks for loving me. I’d hate to Report bust your gut; that sounds real messy. You realize, of course, that we know any redistricting story at this stage is going to The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink be quite speculative, but it’s a parlor game we can’t resist Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is playing. Don’t hestitate to educate us....” - HPR Publisher an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the Howey to Speaker Gregg political process in Indiana. * * * Brian A. Howey, publisher By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer Politically speaking, there are two Indianas running parallel to each other. Federally, the state has been trending Jack E. Howey, editor Republican, with the Congressional delegation going from 8 The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 to 4 Democratic in 1990 to the current 7 to 5 Republican, PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 with the GOP’s only loss the Senate seat held by Evan Bayh. Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 Statewide and locally, the state is and has been trend- [email protected] ing Democratic for a good portion of the Bayh/O’Bannon www.howeypolitics.com era, with the party dominating the governor’s office and Washington office: 202-775-3242; picking up most of the big city mayoralships, as well as the Business Office: 317-254-0535. Indiana House. The GOP is dug in to the Indiana Senate and Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or holds all of the down ballot Statehouse offices, with a 2002 fax. Call 317-254-1533. secretary of state race poised to become a proxy battle. While the Democrats will hold the trump cards in the © 2001, The Howey Political Report. All rights 2001 redistricting because Gov. O’Bannon will designate the reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- tie-breaker on any commission appointed to solve what will tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without certainly end up in a dispute, the new reality is that the on- consent of the publisher. Continued on page 2 “Maybe they have a bigger wailing wall than Ticker: Lugar weighs in on taxes p. 2 anyone else...” Bob Lang: Pillage and plunder p. 2 Dan Burton: New Clinton scandals p. 4 - State Rep. B. Patrick Bauer, on Hoosiers for Lake County & Senate Republicans p. 6 Higher Education rallying for more funding, to the Perhaps: Bayh, a new right target p. 7 Indianapolis Star Columnists: Broder, Dowd, Dooley p. 8 Thursday, Feb. 15, 2001 Page 2 of 8 SEN. SKILLMAN DOUBTS TAX RESTRUCTURING WILL HAPPEN: State Sen. Becky Skillman has expressed doubts that removing welfare off local property taxes will fly. Gov. O’Bannon’s proposal would give four or five counties significant property tax relief, but Skillman, R- Bedford, observed, they are heavily populated urban areas with extremely high welfare burdens, she said. “For 90 percent of my Carson in the 10th) and the south (Baron Senate district, it may be a 1 Redistrict, from page 1 Hill in the 9th) - let alone create another percent or 2 percent reduc- seat in the south (Speaker Gregg or tion – which likely you going demographic shifts will favor whomever) and give Roemer a chance.” wouldn’t realize any of it on Republicans in federal races in the coming your tax bill. It sounds like decade. Roemer and the Democratic something and does noth- Republicans will continue to National Committee also had seen the ing” (Mary G. Johnson, migrate out of Indianapolis, Cincinnati handwriting on the wall. “Roemer's peo- Bedford Times-Mail). She and Chicago. While that will make ple and the DNC have tried to draw him a doubts any major tax relief Indianapolis a competitive two-party city map and were never able to come up with will come out of the current for perhaps a generation, once Democratic anything that would even give them a session. “I supposed dra- areas such as the 1st and 9th CDs in The generic Democratic base, without taking matic things could happen substantial amounts away from Visclosky at the end of the legislative Region and Southeastern Indiana will session, and I know there trend Republican. or drawing a map that would have been are underground talks of tax Republican National Committee challenged on compactness and other restructuring. While I am sources tell HPR that Indiana is going to issues from trying to include Fort Wayne, hopeful that might happen, become a priority. One Hoosier Repub- or to drive south to Kokomo and then every day that passes lican political operative laid out the demo- over to Marion etc. Even then, it would makes it more doubtful. My graphic trending for the RNC in January. have been a reach to gain an advantage of instincts tell me the General The operative noted, “I told them that a Democrat leaning generic vote even if Assembly will take the Scarlett O’Hara approach – after a very brief and crude run through of you try to include St. Joseph , part of ‘I can’t worry about that the numbers, I started to believe that LaPorte, and then drive south to Kokomo today. I’ll worry about that Indiana very well could be at least 7-2 in or Marion. Or even efforts to get St. tomorrow’ – meaning that favor of the GOP within the next election Joseph, part of LaPorte, parts of Elkhart, until the next reassessment or two. At first they were skeptical, but and then drive the district to parts of Allen is conducted under the new after they began to crunch the numbers County and Fort Wayne; it really rules, you don’t know who and draw the maps, they are becoming becomes tough. will suffer the biggest believers, too. The numbers are really “All of the surrounding areas that blow.” hard for the Dems to map in order to have are so strong GOP - let alone the com- a Democrat seat in the north (Pete pactness argument and then effects it Continued on page 3 Visclosky in the 1st CD), central (Julia would have on the Pence seat, which Page 3 of 8 Thursday, Feb. 15, 2001 would affect the Hill numbers.” as well. Why? “With fewer members to When Roemer decided not to seek protect, the D's will have much more re-election, both Republican and Demo- ground to play with and more scenarios to cratic sources were telling HPR that this consider.” But the biggest problem the frees the map drawers to make even larger Dems will face is that the population cen- changes, and some mischief. Because of ters are so far apart that they will have to the Roemer bug out, in the end the dis- plow through strong GOP areas to give LUGAR SEEKS TAX tricts will be substantially different them a chance if they try to create one or RELIEF: Sen. Richard because Democrats have less ground to more districts. Lugar wants agricultural tax protect. Lou Jacobson, writing for relief included in this year's From the Republican perspective, Congressional Daily, observed, “Despite a tax bill. On Wednesday, Lugar reintroduced the RNC analysts are looking at the potential long-running shift toward the GOP in Roemer fallout like this: Rural America Prosperity Indiana's congressional delegation, politi- Act, which calls for elimi- 1. This allows Speaker Gregg much cal experts said the Democrats will make nating the estate tax over 10 more freedom to try and draw himself a the most of their map-making powers this years, cutting capital gains map; however, his problem continues to year.” taxes for farmers and allow- be the need to protect Hill. The HPR and Ed Fiegenbaum of ing 100 percent deductibility Republican asks rhetorically, “Would Indiana Legislative Insight agree that U.S. for health costs for the self- Gregg run without it being a sure thing? I Rep. Brian Kerns is almost certain to end insured. The legislation, first introduced last year, would doubt it.” up in the 8th CD. also includes trade, regula- 2. Will Jill Long resurface and try As for Hill, Jacobson wrote, to persuade the D's to draw her a map into tory, and risk-management “Howey doubts there are contiguous areas provisions. "We have out- the old 3rd CD? The Republican that could net Hill significantly more lined what we believe is the observes, “It would still be a leaning Democratic votes, although Feigenbaum unfinished business" of the Republican district.” Democratic sources suggests some of the Cincinnati-area farm bill, said Lugar. The are telling HPR that the 3rd and 4th CDs counties might be ceded to neighboring last farm bill, which Lugar are likely to go through the blender, with Republican Rep. Mike Pence.” wrote in 1996, put U.S. agri- 3rd CD Republican nominee Chris Residency? culture on a path toward Chocola ending up in the new 4th CD. eliminating subsidies and 3. They could still try to play If the Democrats do play out their enabling farmers to plant games with U.S.