The Congo Basin‘s forests represent 70 percent of the African continent’s forest cover and constitute a Basin in the Congo Trends Deforestation large portion of Africa’s biodiversity. Although deforestation rates in the basin are among the lowest in the tropical rainforest belt and significantly below most other African regions, this situation is projected to change. Local and regional development, demographic trends, and global demand for commodities are likely to increase internal and external pressures on natural capital. The countries of the Congo Basin—Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo—stand at a crossroads. They face the need to develop local economies and reduce poverty, but they also seek to limit the negative impacts of growth on their natural resources. The area’s forests are home to 30 million people and support livelihoods for more than 75 million people from over 150 ethnic groups. Forestry is a major economic sector, providing jobs and local subsistence from timber and non-timber products and contributing significantly to export and fiscal revenues. These countries are not yet locked into a development path that will necessarily come at a high cost to forests. They can define a new path toward forest-friendly growth. The issue is how to accompany economic change with smart measures and policy choices so that the countries can sustain and benefit from their extraordinary natural assets over the long term. Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection analyzes the Megevand Doetinchem, Streck Hourticq, Sanders, with Mosnier, current and anticipated pressures exerted by the different sectors of agriculture, transport, energy, extractive industries, and logging on the Congo Basin‘s forests. It highlights policy options and DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT opportunities to develop strategies fostering sustainable development while protecting the natural and Environment and Sustainable Development cultural heritage of the region. These opportunities include participatory land use planning, strengthening regional institutions, improving law enforcement, fostering multisectoral coordination, expanding sustainable forest management principles, and setting high standards for the extractive industries. “This study shows that a transition to a low and degraded forest cover is possible, but not a fatality. Deforestation Trends We have tools at our disposal to act in a targeted, forest-friendly way, by reconciling economic growth and forest preservation. Now is the time to make a strong stand in favor of sustainable development.” in the Congo Basin Raymond Mbitikon, Executive Secretary, Central Africa Forests Commission (COMIFAC) Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Carole Megevand THE WORLD BANK with Aline Mosnier, Joël Hourticq, ISBN 978-0-8213-9742-8 Klas Sanders, Nina Doetinchem, and Charlotte Streck SKU 19742 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Carole Megevand with Aline Mosnier, Joël Hourticq, Klas Sanders, Nina Doetinchem, and Charlotte Streck © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 16 15 14 13 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of the content contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Megevand, Carole. Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9742-8. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this ­translation. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9742-8 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9778-7 DOI (print): 10.1596/978-0-8213-9742-8 Cover photo: Andrew McConnell/Panos. Cover design: Debra Naylor Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Megevand, Carole. Deforestation trends in the Congo Basin : reconciling economic growth and forest protection / lead author, Carole Megevand ; contributing authors, Aline Mosnier ... [et al.]. p. cm. “This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.” Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8213-9742-8 (alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8213-9778-7 (alk. paper) 1. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (Program) 2. Deforestation—Economic aspects—Africa, Central. 3. Forest protection—Africa, Central. 4. Forest degradation—Africa, Central. 5. Economic development—Africa, Central. I. Mosnier, Aline. II. World Bank. III. Title. SD664.A352M47 2013 333.750967—dc23 2012048450 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9742-8 Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Author and Contributors xv Abbreviations xvii Overview 1 Congo Basin Forests at a Glance 1 What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multisectoral Analysis 3 How to Reconcile Growth and Forest Protection Policy Options and Recommendations? 14 Note 22 References 22 Introduction 25 Note 27 Chapter 1 Congo Basin Forests: Description 29 The Forest Ecosystems in the Congo Basin 29 Deforestation and Forest Degradation 43 Notes 52 References 53 Chapter 2 What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multisectoral Analysis 57 Deforestation and Forest Degradation Dynamics in the Congo Basin 57 Agriculture Sector 68 Energy Sector 82 Transport Infrastructure Sector 89 Logging Sector 98 Mining Sector 107 Notes 112 References 115 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9742-8 v vi Contents Chapter 3 REDD+: Toward a “Forest-Friendly” Development in the Congo Basin 119 REDD+: A New Mechanism to Reduce Pressure on Tropical Forests 119 REDD+: How Can Economic Development and Forest Preservation Be Reconciled? Some Recommendations 127 Notes 142 References 142 Conclusions and Outlook 145 Appendix GLOBIOM Model—Formal Description 149 Boxes O.1 Hunger in a Land of Plenty 2 O.2 An Interactive Modeling and Awareness-Raising Exercise 4 O.3 Why Agricultural Productivity Increases Are Not Necessarily Good for Forests 5 O.4 Feeding Cities: Mixing Charcoal and Cassava near Kinshasa 9 O.5 Road Work Ahead 10 O.6 Simulating Changes Resulting from Improved Infrastructure 11 O.7 Small-Scale and Artisanal Mining and Adverse Impacts on Environment 14 O.8 A Fair Baseline 15 1.1 Variations in Forest Carbon Stocks: Key Concepts 34 1.2 COMIFAC’s “Plan de Convergence” 41 1.3 European Union’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance, and Trade ­Program 44 1.4 Highly Selective Logging Activities in the Congo Basin 49 1.5 Forest Transition Theory: Where Do Congo Basin Countries Stand? 51 2.1 More on the GLOBIOM Model: Underlying Assumptions 62 2.2 Results of the CongoBIOM Model 66 2.3 Limitations of the CongoBIOM Model and Way Forward in the REDD+ Context 67 2.4 Agriculture: Evolution in Public Policies in the Congo Basin 70 2.5 Recent Trends in Large-Scale Land Acquisition and Their Effects on the Democratic Republic of Congo 71 2.6 Land Suitability on Nonforested Areas in Congo Basin Countries 79 2.7 Political Economy of the Charcoal Trade Network (Kinshasa and Lubumbashi) 85 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9742-8 Contents vii 2.8 Kinshasa: Toward a Diversification of Woodfuel Supply 89 2.9 Assumptions under the Scenario “Transport” under the CongoBIOM Model 96 2.10 Palm Oil in Cameroon: A New Impetus? 98 2.11 On Timber Trade with China and Other Emerging Asian Markets 102 2.12 Typical Impact