Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Core dataset, 2017 Page 1 of 211 cambridgeshire.gov.uk CONTENTS CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Using this document .................................................................................................................................. 5 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Health Profile summary for Cambridgeshire and districts .............................................................. 15 2. GEOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Cambridgeshire and the districts – geography and main administrative boundaries .................... 19 2.2 Demography, housing growth and land use.................................................................................... 19 Population estimates ............................................................................................................................... 20 Population forecasts: background to short, medium and long term forecasts to 2036 ......................... 24 Population forecasts: CCC Research Group and ONS long term forecasts to 2036 ................................ 25 Population forecasts: CCC Research Group and ONS short and medium term forecasts to 2026 ......... 28 Population forecasts: CCC Research Group and ONS by age group - short and medium term forecasts to 2026 ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 Population forecasts in market towns: CCC Research Group short and medium term forecasts to 2026 ................................................................................................................................................................. 42 Population forecasts in wards: CCC Research Groups forecasts to 2026 ................................................ 44 Population change and house building ................................................................................................... 45 Population density ................................................................................................................................... 47 Fertility, components of population change, national insurance number registrations and ethnicity .. 49 3. RELATIVE DEPRIVATION AND WIDER DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH ........................................................ 56 3.1 Relative deprivation......................................................................................................................... 56 3.2 Socio-economic factors and wider determinants influencing health and wellbeing ...................... 62 Child poverty ........................................................................................................................................... 62 Child development and educational attainment .................................................................................... 64 Employment, worklessness, income and benefits .................................................................................. 68 4. LIFESTYLES, RISK FACTORS AND HEALTH AND WELLBEING ..................................................................... 77 4.1 Excess weight ................................................................................................................................... 77 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 77 Adults ....................................................................................................................................................... 81 4.2 Physical activity................................................................................................................................ 85 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 85 Adults ....................................................................................................................................................... 88 4.3 Smoking ........................................................................................................................................... 91 Prevalence in children ............................................................................................................................. 91 Prevalence in adults................................................................................................................................. 93 Page 2 of 211 Smoking cessation ................................................................................................................................... 96 4.4 Alcohol use ...................................................................................................................................... 99 Children ................................................................................................................................................... 99 Adults ..................................................................................................................................................... 101 4.5 NHS Health Checks ........................................................................................................................ 104 4.6 Drug use ......................................................................................................................................... 106 Children ................................................................................................................................................. 106 Adults ..................................................................................................................................................... 107 4.7 Sexual health ................................................................................................................................. 109 4.8 Under 18 conceptions and births .................................................................................................. 113 4.9 Falls and hip fracture ..................................................................................................................... 115 5. SCREENING, VACCINATION AND IMMUNISATION ................................................................................ 119 5.1 Adult screening .............................................................................................................................. 119 5.2 Children ......................................................................................................................................... 121 5.3 Influenza ........................................................................................................................................ 122 6. LEVELS OF ILLNESS AND HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE SERVICES ............................................................. 124 6.1 Cardiovascular conditions (coronary heart disease, high blood pressure and stroke) ................. 124 Latest prevalence and modelled estimates ........................................................................................... 124 Trends and local patterns ...................................................................................................................... 126 6.2 Respiratory conditions (asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) ............................. 132 Latest prevalence and modelled estimates ........................................................................................... 132 Trends and local patterns ...................................................................................................................... 134 6.3 Long term and high dependency conditions (cancer and diabetes) ............................................. 138 Latest prevalence................................................................................................................................... 138 Trends and local patterns ...................................................................................................................... 139 6.4 Mental health (psychoses, depression, dementia and learning disability) ................................... 142 Latest prevalence and modelled estimates ........................................................................................... 142 Trends and local patterns ...................................................................................................................... 144 Self-harm ............................................................................................................................................... 151 Suicide and injury of undetermined intent ........................................................................................... 153 6.5 NHS hospital services ..................................................................................................................... 155 Inpatient hospital admissions ................................................................................................................ 155 Accident and emergency attendances .................................................................................................