Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan of Changunarayan Municipality चााँगुनारायण नगरपालिकाको िागी जोखिम संवेदनशीि भू-उपयोग योजना December 2018 Prepared for Implemented by Changunarayan Municipality Office DanChurchAid Kharipati, Bhaktapur Jhamsikhel, Lalitpur NEPAL NEPAL In partnership with Imadole Mahalaxmi Municipality, Ward 9 Lalitpur NEPAL Prepared by Genesis Consultancy (P) Ltd. Sai Marg, Shree Mahal, Pulchowk-3 Lalitpur NEPAL Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan (RSLUP) of Changunarayan Municipality Acknowledgement <to be inserted > चााँगुनारायण नगरपालिकाको िागी जोखिम संवेदनशीि भू-उपयोग योजना December 2018 This report entitled “Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan of Changunarayan Municipality” is an outcome of the study “Prepare Integrated Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan (RSLUP) and GIS based Evacuation Route Modelling for Changunarayan Municipality” undertaken for Changunarayan Municipality by DanChurchAid (DCA) and implementing partner Friends Service Council Nepal (FSCN) with technical support by GENESIS Consultancy (P) Ltd. The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed herein are those of the consultant/author(s) and do not reflect those of Changunarayan Municipality nor DCA or FSCN. Data Sources and Credits GIS datasets and their associated attributes used in the study are developed by GENESIS Consultancy (P) Ltd. for the study. Building footprints, road network and land use data were extracted from Pleiades 0.5m MSS satellite imagery dated 3 January 2018. Geological and geotechnical investigation was undertaken during October-November 2018, community level data were collected from ward level consultative meetings during November 2018 for the study. Sources of other data and maps are cited in the report. Authorization from the owner DCA/FSCN and/or Changunarayan Municipality and the authors is required for the usage and/or publication of the data in part or whole. Front Cover Panoramic view of landscape in Sudal and Tathali area, Changunarayan Municipality photographed from Bojinee, Nagarkot on 13th December 2018. Photo by Anish Joshi Abbreviations Contents BAU Business-as-usual 1. BACKGROUND 1 BBL Building Bye Law 1.1. Introduction 1 BC Building Code 1.2. Rationale and Objectives of the Assignment 1 CC Climate Change 1.3. Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning – Concept and Context 1 DCA DanChurchAid 1.4. Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning – Framework 1 DEM Digital Elevation Model 1.5. Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan Approach 2 DMG Department of Mines and Geology 1.6. Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning in Changu Narayan Municipality 2 DRM Disaster Risk Management 1.7. Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan – Way Forward 2 DRR Disaster Risk Reduction FAR Floor Area Ratio 2. MUNICIPALITY DEVELOPMENT PROFILE 3 FSCN Friends Service Council Nepal 2.1. Built Resources 3 GIS Geographical Information System 2.1.1. Built Area Error! Bookmark not defined. 2 Ha Hectare (1 Ha = 10,000 m ) 2.1.2. Present Land Use Error! Bookmark not defined. IEC Information, Education and Communication 2.1.3. Existing Infrastructure and Services 3 INGO International Non-Governmental Organization 2.1.4. Cultural and Archaeological Heritage 4 km kilometre (1km = 1,000 m) 2.1.5. Market Centre 5 LDRM Local Disaster Risk Management 2.1.6. Land Market 6 MBT Main Boundary Thrust 2.2. Natural Resources 6 MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity 2.2.1. Forests 6 NSC National Seismological Center 2.2.2. Water Bodies 6 NSDRM National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management 2.2.3. Agriculture Land 6 PDNA Post Disaster Needs Assessment 2.3. Demographics 6 PGA Peak Ground Acceleration pph Population Per Hectare 3. Municipality Hazard Profile 8 R-A-P-D Ropani-Aana-Paisa-Dam 3.1. Geology of Changunarayan Municipality Region 8 RSLUP Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan 3.1.1. Kalimati Formation 8 HOS Humanitarian Open Space 3.1.2. Gokarna Formation 8 3.1.3. Kulekhani Formation 8 3.1.4. Markhu Formation 8 3.1.5. Tistung Formation 8 3.2. Seismotectonic of Nepal 8 3.3. Seismicity 9 3.3.1. Earthquake Catalogue of Nepal 9 3.4. Seismic Hazard Assessment and Mapping 10 3.4.1. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 10 3.4.2. Potential Earthquake Sources 10 3.4.3. Attenuation Relationship 11 3.4.4. Ground Model 12 3.4.5. Acceleration in Ground Surface 12 3.4.6. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) 12 3.4.7. Field Survey 13 3.4.8. Distribution of PGA in Changunarayan Municipality 13 3.4.9. Distribution of Intensity in Changunarayan Municipality 13 3.5. Liquefaction Susceptibility Assessment and Mapping 15 3.5.1. Factors Affecting Liquefaction Susceptibility 15 3.5.2. Liquefaction Hazard Analysis 15 3.6. Landslide and Erosion Hazard Assessment and Mapping 17 Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan (RSLUP) of Changunarayan Municipality iv | 3.6.1. Weight of Evidence (WOE) Method 17 7.1. Public Open Spaces 41 3.6.2. Factor Maps for Analysis 17 7.2. Humanitarian Open Spaces (HOS) 41 3.6.3. Erosion and Landslide Susceptibility 19 7.3. Access and Evacuation Route 41 4. Urban Growth Trend and Projection 21 Bibliography 4.1. Urban Growth Trend 21 4.2. Drivers of Growth 21 4.2.1. Biophysical Condition 22 List of Tables 4.2.2. Road Network 22 4.2.3. Access to Market, Infrastructures and Services 22 Table 1 Road network in Changunarayan Municipality 3 4.2.4. Urban Nodes 22 Table 2 Access to Membership of HH for Solid Waste Management 3 4.2.5. Political Scenario 22 Table 3 Segregation of solid waste 3 4.3. Urban Growth Projection 23 Table 4 Drinking water sources 3 4.3.1. Business as Usual Scenario 23 Table 5 Present status of sewerage and night soil disposal 4 4.3.2. Controlled Scenario 23 Table 6 Local Market Centers in Municipality 5 4.4. Regional Growth Trend 24 Table 7 Ward wise distribution of Population and Household 6 4.5. Population Growth 24 Table 8 Status of differently able population 7 Table 9 Minimum and Maximum HH income 7 5. Strategic Spatial Planning 25 Table 10 Seismic characteristics of source used for characteristics model. 10 5.1. Development Vision 25 Table 11 Seismic parameters for Earthquake Source of Gutenberg-Richter model 11 5.2. Guiding Principles 25 Table 12 Classification of liquefaction susceptibility 16 5.3. Strategies for Spatial Planning and their Context 25 Table 13 Built-up area change in each ward (2012-2018) 21 5.4. Development Constraints and Opportunities 26 Table 14 Summary of drivers of urban growth discussed in the focus group discussion in each ward 22 5.4.1. Spatial Constraints 26 Table 15 Built-up projection for BAU Scenario Model 23 5.4.2. Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation for Constraints and Opportunities 27 Table 16 Built-up projection for Controlled Scenario Model 23 5.4.3. Assigning Weightage 28 Table 17 Population projection 24 5.4.4. Weighted Linear Combination 29 Table 18 Actual population growth and Projected population growth 24 5.4.5. Suitable Settlement Areas 29 Table 5-1 Proposed ROW for different type of roads 26 Table 20 Degree of suitability of slope 27 6. Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan for Changunarayan Municipality 30 Table 21 Degree of suitability of distance to existing roads 27 6.1. Proposed Urban Form 30 Table 22 Degree of suitability of distance to existing settlements 28 6.1.1. Conservation Zone (संरक्षण क्षेत्र) 30 Table 23 Degree of suitability of distance to existing commercial areas 28 Table 24 Degree of suitability of distance to existing urban nodes 28 6.1.2. Agriculture Buffer Zone (कृ षि बफर क्षेत्र) 32 Table 25 Degree of suitability of distance to existing institutional area 28 6.1.3. Natural Resources Management Zone - Natural Corridor (प्राकृ तिक श्रोि व्यवथापन क्षत्रे - Table 26 Degree of suitability of distance to existing cultural sites 28 प्राकृ तिक कोररडोर) 32 Table 27 Suitable areas for settlement in different wards 29 Table 28 Minimum land parcel requirements for residential 39 6.1.4. Development Nodes (षवकास केन्द्र) 33 6.1.5. Land Use 37 Table 29 Name of Settlement served by HOS within 30 minute walking distance 41 6.1.6. Land Parcels 38 Table 30 Summary of HOS in Changunarayan Municipality 42 6.2. Regulations for Suitability Zones (Colour Zones) 38 Table 31 Time required for people of different settlements to reach nearest open space 57 6.2.1. Red Zone (AVOID) 38 Table 32 Travel Time for Fire Brigade to reach different HOS 58 6.2.2. Orange Zone (AVOID) 38 Table 33 Vehicular Travel Time to move from HOS to Staging Area 59 6.2.3. Yellow Zone (CONTROL) 38 6.2.4. Green Zone (PROMOTE) 38 List of Figures 6.3. Regulations for Land Parcels 39 Figure 1 Framework and process of RSLUP [Adapted from (Bendimerad 2012)] 1 6.4. Regulations for Open Spaces and Evacuation Route 39 Figure 2 RSLUP development process 2 6.5. Development Control Regulations in Hazard Prone Areas 39 Figure 3 Nagarkot Bazaar area (Left) and Changu Bazaar Area (Right) 5 7. Open Space and Evacuation Routing 41 Figure 4 Agriculture and commercial tunnel farming in Changunarayan Municipality 6 Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan (RSLUP) of Changunarayan Municipality v | Figure 5 Geological Map of the Changunarayan Municipality 8 Figure 6 Earthquake catalogue of Nepal (1996-2018 and historic earthquakes) 9 Figure 7 Historic and recent earthquakes in central region 9 Figure 8 Planar characteristics source models (black hollow rectangles) used in the study 10 Figure 9 Planar source (blue filled rectangle) used in Gutenberg-Richter source model used in this study 11 Figure 10 A logic tree model for the seismic source and GMPEs with their relative weights 12 Figure 11 Relationship between N-value and Vs 12 Figure 12 Result of the Seismic Field Survey (MASW) performed behind the Kathmandu Medical College, Duwakot, Ward 2, Changunarayan