MARKET INQUIRY INTO LAND BASED PUBLIC PASSENGER TRANSPORT MAIN REPORT NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION 19 February 2020 i Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... ii List of figures .......................................................................................................................................... iv List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 1 1. MARKET INQUIRY PROCESS................................................................................................... 1 2. BACKGROUND TO THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ...................... 9 3. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK................................................................................................. 26 4. PUBLIC TRANSPORT AS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM .......................................................... 41 5. SUBSIDIES IN THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT SECTOR ............................................................. 61 6. THE RAIL SECTOR .................................................................................................................. 91 7. SUBSIDISED BUS CONTRACTS IN URBAN AREAS ........................................................... 126 8. RURAL TRANSPORTATION AND RURAL BUS CONTRACTING ........................................ 166 9. BUS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM IN SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................ 178 10. MINIBUS TAXI INDUSTRY ..................................................................................................... 224 11. INTERPROVINCIAL BUS OPERATIONS .............................................................................. 263 12. COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS IN THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT SECTOR ................................. 290 13. PUBLIC TRANSPORT SAFETY ............................................................................................. 300 14. STATE OF TRANSFORMATION IN THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT INDUSTRY ...................... 316 15. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................... 328 16. ANNEXURES .......................................................................................................................... 339 ii List of tables Table 1: Key milestones during the Inquiry ............................................................................ 5 Table 2: Linking the ToRs to Chapter layout ......................................................................... 7 Table 3: Public transport usage ........................................................................................... 20 Table 4: Overview of the regulators in the public passenger transport sector ...................... 27 Table 5: Transfers and subsidies to PRASA from 2014/15 to 2018/19 ................................ 69 Table 6: Transfer payments to Gautrain from 2014/15 to 2017/18 ...................................... 71 Table 7: Urban rail commuter operating subsidy per passenger 2017/18 ............................ 71 Table 8: Share of public transport funding for infrastructure vs operations, 2018/19 ........... 80 Table 9: Public transport related subsidies 2014/15 to 2018/19 .......................................... 83 Table 10: Long distance routes operated by Shosholoza Meyl ............................................ 98 Table 11: Railway network coverage per region ................................................................ 103 Table 12: Properties of railway operations and railway infrastructure ................................ 113 Table 13: Metrorail business express vs Gautrain – travel times and fares ....................... 120 Table 14: Current status of bus subsidy contracts ............................................................. 131 Table 15: Allocation of funds per province, 2015/16 .......................................................... 134 Table 16: Allocation of funds per province, 2016/17 .......................................................... 134 Table 17: Sample of routes serviced by Algoa .................................................................. 141 Table 18: Sample of routes serviced by AB350 ................................................................. 142 Table 19: Districts of Limpopo - the extent of subsidisation in the province ....................... 145 Table 20: Features of BRT system .................................................................................... 182 Table 21: Summary of current BRT/IRPTN implementation .............................................. 191 Table 22: Summary of progress of IRPTN implementation ................................................ 199 Table 23: Summary of selected route related conflicts in the period 2016 -2019 ............... 234 Table 24: Proportion of minibus taxis financed by each credit provider (%) ....................... 240 Table 25: Extracts of taxi associations’ oral submissions .................................................. 243 Table 26: Market share for developmental credit advanced to minibus taxis (%) ............... 245 Table 27: Provinces where moratoriums have been imposed ........................................... 251 Table 28: Company profiles for selected bus operators ..................................................... 264 Table 29:Top 10 bus operators in arrears for the use of bus terminal facilities at Park Station as of June 2018 ................................................................................................................ 280 Table 30: Autopax financial performance 2013-2018 ........................................................ 285 Table 31: Fares charged minibus taxis and Metrorail ........................................................ 294 Table 32: Minibus taxis points of origin and destination in Gauteng North ......................... 295 Table 33: Ownership patterns of financial institutions servicing bus and minibus taxi industry ......................................................................................................................................... 317 Table 34: Level of transformation at bus manufacturing level ............................................ 319 Table 35: Transformation at the commuter bus level ......................................................... 320 Table 36: Implementation plan for Public Transport Market Inquiry recommendations ...... 329 iii List of figures Figure 1: Modes of land based public passenger transport in South Africa ........................... 9 Figure 2: Mode of transport used for school and work 2013-2016 ....................................... 19 Figure 3: Households use of public transport (per cent) per province (2016) ....................... 20 Figure 4: Spending as a share of total household spending (selected countries) ................ 22 Figure 5: Monthly household income per capita spent on public transport to work by geographic location ............................................................................................................. 23 Figure 6: Monthly household income per capita spent on public transport to work by sector 24 Figure 7: TRP participation rate by minibus taxi operators from 2006/07 to 2018/19 ........... 76 Figure 8: PTOG expenditure and estimates from 2014/15 to 2020/2021 (R “000) ............... 77 Figure 9: Public Transport Network Grant from 2016/17 to 2017/18 (R’000) ....................... 78 Figure 10: Ridership 2015 vs subsidy allocation 2017/18 .................................................... 79 Figure 11: Subsidy transfers for Gautrain and Metrorail from 2015/16 to 2018/19 (R’000) .. 94 Figure 12: Metrorail annual passenger numbers per region ................................................ 96 Figure 13: Shosholoza Meyl route network ......................................................................... 99 Figure 14: Corridors serviced by Gautrain ......................................................................... 101 Figure 15: Annual passenger trips for the GPS and APS from 2010 to 2018 ..................... 102 Figure 16: Metrorail and Gautrain routes ........................................................................... 115 Figure 17: Gautrain expansion new routes ........................................................................ 117 Figure 18: Map of municipalities in Gauteng ..................................................................... 135 Figure 19: Map of municipalities in the Eastern Cape Province ......................................... 139 Figure 20: Municipalities in Limpopo ................................................................................. 146 Figure 21: Municipalities in the Western Cape .................................................................. 148 Figure 22: Municipalities in the Free State ........................................................................ 149 Figure 23: Municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal ........................................................................ 152 Figure 24: Municipalities in the Northern Cape .................................................................. 155 Figure 25: Municipalities in Mpumalanga .........................................................................