VALUE FOCUS Asset Management Industry SEGMENT FOCUS Traditional Asset Managers 2017 Overview 1 Q1: Mutual Funds Market Overview 2 Q2: Traditional Asset Managers M&A Review 3 Q3: Alternative Asset Managers Asset Manager Q4: Trust Banks Multiples by Sector 4 About Mercer Capital 5 Memphis | Dallas | Nashville » 800.769.0967 » www.mercercapital.com Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Asset Management Industry Second Quarter 2017 Segment Focus Traditional Asset Managers Most traditional asset managers are in bull market territory Share Price Performance over the last year in the face of fee compression and continued Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2017 outflows from active equity products. While hedge funds and PE firms tend to dominate the RIA headlines, traditional 40% asset managers (“TAMs”) are quietly gaining market share 35% as investors question performance fees and the lack of 30% 25% transparency offered by many alternative asset managers. 20% Indeed, all five components of our publicly traded TAM group 15% in the chart to the right are up over the last year, and four of 10% them have bested the market by a fairly considerable margin. 5% We attribute the group’s gains to both systematic and non- 0% AMG BLK LM PZN WHG systematic factors. That is, the market’s gain (a systematic Traditional Asset Managers S&P 500 force affecting all stocks, especially RIAs) has clearly helped Source: SNL Financial the group’s collective AUM balance, while non-systematic forces such as solid investment performance (PZN), new account additions (BLK), and prior acquisitions (AMG/LM) similarly attribute their success to systematic (market-related) account for much of the residual success of the individual and non-systematic (marketing-related) growth factors, and components. In our experience, most well-established RIAs this group is no exception. Market Overview Second Quarter 2016 Asset Managers Index // Breakdown by Size Asset Managers Index // Breakdown by Type For the Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2017 For the Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2017 130 150 120 140 110 130 100 120 90 80 110 70 100 60 90 AUM < $10 B AUM $10 B - $100 B Mutual Funds Traditional Asset Managers AUM $100 B - $500 B AUM > $500 B Alternative Asset Managers Trust Banks S&P 500 S&P 500 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence © 2017 Mercer Capital 1 www.mercercapital.com Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Asset Management Industry Second Quarter 2017 Market Overview Second Quarter 2016 Favorable market conditions over the last twelve months Publicly traded alternative asset managers have also per- have buoyed RIA market caps to all-time highs. This almost formed well in recent months, but, like custody banks, are still seems counter-intuitive against a backdrop of fee compres- reeling from poor investment returns over the last decade. sion, fund outflows, and generally negative press (some of The value-added proposition (alpha net of fees) has been vir- it by us), but a rising market means higher AUM balances, tually non-existent for many hedge funds and PE firms over leading to greater fees and profitability, regardless of other this period despite the sector’s recent gains. headwinds facing the industry—not a perfect storm by any Once again, the RIA size graph on page 1 seems to imply that means, but good enough to outperform the broader indices smaller RIAs have significantly underperformed their larger during a relatively strong stock market rally. peers over the last twelve months. The reality, though, is that Publicly traded custody banks (BNY Mellon, State Street, this segment is the least diversified (only two components, and Northern Trust) outperformed other classes of asset Hennessy Advisors and US Global Investors, both of which managers over the last twelve months, continuing their are thinly traded) and certainly not a good representation upward trajectory over the last few years but still lagging the of how RIAs with under $10 billion in AUM are actually per- broader indices since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. forming. Specifically, Hennessy’s weakness is largely attrib- Placing this recent comeback in its historical context reveals utable to recent sub-par investment performance from its the headwinds these businesses have been facing in a low Cornerstone Growth Fund, and US Global’s focus on natural interest rate environment that has significantly compressed resource investing has taken a hit from softening commodity money market fees and yields on fixed income investments. prices. Most of our clients fall under this size category, and Their recent success may, therefore, be indicative of a rever- we can definitively say that these businesses (in aggregate) sion to mean valuation levels following years of depressed haven’t lost half their value since August as suggested by this performance, rather than a sudden surge of investor optimism graph. Other sizes of publicly traded asset managers have regarding future prospects. Further, pricing improvements for performed reasonably in line with the market over this period. this group appear to be more relative to an improved banking The outlook for these businesses is similarly market driven, environment than a change in circumstances for trust and though it does vary by sector. Trust banks are more suscep- custodial services. tible to changes in interest rates and yield curve positioning. Still, in recent quarters, most trust bank stocks outperformed Alternative asset managers tend to be more idiosyncratic but other classes of asset managers, like mutual funds and tra- still influenced by investor sentiment regarding their hard-to- ditional RIAs, as passive products and indexing strategies value assets. Mutual funds and traditional asset managers continued to gain ground on active management. A rising are more vulnerable to trends in active and passive investing. yield curve portends higher NIM spreads and reinvestment All are off to a decent start in 2017 after a strong end to 2016 income, and the market has responded accordingly—our as the market weighs the impact of fee compression against custody bank index gained 45% over the last year, surpassing rising equity prices. the broader indices and all other classes of asset managers. © 2017 Mercer Capital 2 www.mercercapital.com Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Asset Management Industry Second Quarter 2017 M&A Review We’re perplexed by the lack of transactions in the RIA valuable than ever. Since the market is trading at an all- industry. A typical year reports less than a hundred deals in a time high, many asset managers’ AUM balances are as space with almost 12,000 federally registered advisors. That well, which means higher fees, earnings, and valuations. means that less than 1% of the industry participants transact Such a high price tag makes them less appealing to in a given year. How could that be in an aging profession with buyers looking to maximize ROI. a highly scalable business model? 4. RIAs have distinct cultures that don’t jive with 1. Most RIAs are not big enough to be consistently prospective buyers. This is the case with many industries profitable. According to the Investment Adviser but seems especially true for asset managers. The Association, the “typical” SEC-Registered Investment business and its reputation have come a long way from the Adviser has $317 million in AUM, between 26 and 100 Wolf of Wall Street broker culture. Still, these businesses accounts, nine employees, and is headquartered in tend to have unique attributes that aren’t necessarily New York, California, Florida, Illinois, or Texas. It’s hard conducive to firms in different (or even the same) industries. to envision that a business of this size would generate For example, banks have taken an interest in the business enough revenue to cover overhead and professional staff for its high margins and low capital requirements. In our expenses (likely in an expensive market) and yield much experience, bank and RIA cultures often don’t mesh and profitability, particularly during a market downturn. This can become an unforeseen hurdle in a deal. is especially true if you consider that many believe $500 5. Asset managers value independence and often prefer million in AUM to be the breakeven point for many asset to transition the business internally. Most RIAs are managers to generate consistent levels of profitability employee-owned by design. To keep the company’s culture (depending on size, headcount, location, client type, etc.). and investment/client relations teams intact, principals If valuation is based on earnings, then the average RIA considering retirement will often look to the next generation does not have much to sell. of firm leadership as prospective buyers for their interest. 2. Many asset managers don’t have sustainable This avoids outside influence and appeases institutional enterprise value beyond their owner(s). A lot of investors who often seek independent RIAs wholly RIA principals have not taken the necessary steps to controlled by the firm’s principals. Buy-sell or shareholders’ transition their client relationships, investing acumen, agreements that allow younger principals to buy-in at a business development capabilities, and/or managerial discount to fair market value are commonly a means to responsibilities to any other staffers or the next generation encourage employee ownership and independence. of firm leadership. To prospective buyers, this means On balance, though, we think the outlook for asset manager there is significant risk that the RIA’s viability will not outlive M&A is more promising. The industry is still fragmented and its owners. This is part of the reason why many asset ripe for further consolidation. An aging ownership base and manager deals are structured as earn-outs—to protect the recent market gains might induce prospective sellers to the buyer against future declines in fees or earnings finally pull the trigger.