BATTERY POWERED VEHICLES: DON’T RULE THEM OUT Jerry Mader, Deputy Director1 Transportation Energy Center (TEC) University of Michigan November 16, 2006 ELECTRIC VEHICLE HISTORY: A TALE OF FALSE STARTS Electric vehicles (EV) are powered exclusively by a battery that is recharged from the electric utility grid. In every decade or so, like in today’s energy climate where gasoline prices have risen dramatically, policymakers and the public become aroused by the prospect of battery-powered vehicles. Although EVs sound like an unusual concept in today’s internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle world, EVs have been around for about 170 years. The first EV was invented way back in the 1830s and, when battery storage improved later in the 19th Century, EVs began to flourish. In fact, in the early part of the 20th Century, EVs outsold ICE vehicles because they were easier to start, quieter and not as smelly as gasoline cars. But, as roads improved and, with the discovery of crude oil in Texas, the gasoline cars took over. Later in the last century, the U.S. petroleum crisis of the 1970s was an event that spurred interest in the development of EVs. In 1976, Congress passed Public Law 94-413 that mandated the introduction of 10,000 EVs on U.S. roads in five years. However, U.S. policymakers’ enthusiasm for EVs soon dissipated and petroleum substitution strategies were supplanted by policies to support OPEC2 countries that would keep oil flow to the United States. The 1990s brought yet another policy initiative that focused considerable attention on market introduction of EVs. In September 1990, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) enacted the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate that required manufacturers to sell 2% EVs in 1998, ramping up to 10% in 2003. The ZEV Mandate was very unpopular with automotive manufacturers, especially General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. These companies complained that a government should not mandate a vehicle technology, but that its acceptance should be based on market forces. Eventually, General Motors sued the state of California over this issue and, as a result, the ZEV Mandate was modified to incorporate other vehicle technologies that could reduce emissions, such as hybrid electrics and hydrogen-powered cars. Although the California ZEV Mandate failed to create a sustainable EV market, it did have a dramatic impact on accelerating the development of battery and fuel cell technology. Today, as we are entering the 21st Century, the battery-powered vehicle still holds the promise for future widespread use. And, our battery-powered future should be driven more on the technical progress in battery storage and less on the wishful thinking of government policymakers. IT’S THE BATTERY STUPID In our current world where laptop computers and cell phones are commonplace, several articles found on Google use the title, Electric Auto Association “It’s the battery stupid” However, this phrase was first used a http://www.eaaev.org/History/index.html decade ago when referring to difficulties in introducing EVs 1 This paper is the third in a series of white papers written by Mr. Mader for policymakers and media representatives who are interested in energy related topics. His other papers are: “Michigan’s Energy Future: It’s too soon to panic,” December 2005, and The U.S. Petroleum Addiction: Is it Hopeless?,” May 2006. This paper, as well as the two others are available electronically at: www.engin.umich.edu/research/tec 2 Currently, OPEC is comprised of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela 1 Is the Electric Car Dead? into the marketplace. Although a somewhat crass way of putting it, the key problem in EV development has On June 28, 2006, a documentary film directed always been the performance, life and cost of available by Chris Paine was battery technology. Way back in the late 1970s, the released entitled, “Who U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded programs Killed the Electric Car?” that explored a variety of battery options, including lead-acid (Pb-acid), nickle-Iron (NiFe), sodium-sulfur This film is in the genre of a murder mystery where the “bad (NaS), silver-zinc (AgZn), Nickel zinc (NiZn), zinc guys” are the automotive industry (especially General Motors), the oil industry, weak consumers and, of course, the federal bromide (ZnBr), nickel-cadmium (NiCd), and zinc-air government. The story is told around an electric car, the EV1, th (ZnAir). But, as the 20 Century came to a close, only which was introduced in California by General Motors in 1996 to the Pb-acid battery had survived as a bonafide cost- fulfill the CARB ZEV Mandate. Some prominent members of the competitive option for EV propulsion. Nevertheless, entertainment industry, such as Phyllis Diller, Tom Hanks and during the 1990s, nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and Martin Sheen, as well as a number of California’s most vocal lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries began to receive advocates for EVs have cameo appearances in the movie. One quote from the movie pretty much sums up its major theme, considerable attention from battery developers that “The murder was committed by the General Motors Company,” viewed the EV market in California as a viable entry S. David Freeman, former energy advisor to Jimmy Carter. In point. fact, Mr. Freeman has held several executive positions in California’s government agencies over the past 20 years. Criteria for Battery Development Success Battery Life This author has also had over 20 years experience in California, directly involved in the development and commercialization of Batteries are a very challenging technology to EV technologies. I have had personal experiences working with perfect. During the charging phase, they store many California agencies and I have come in contact with many electrons and, during the discharge phase, they of the technical experts shown in this film. In my opinion, the release electrons. This charge/discharge cycle must obvious purpose of this film was to embarrass the automotive be repeated many hundreds of times during the life of industry and to castigate General Motors. Unfortunately, this is a battery without any appreciable loss in battery quite a common motive of California policymakers and politicians. But, the true underlying causes for this unsuccessful function or capacity. In fact, batteries must last up to venture can be summarized as follows: 1,000 cycles to be effective for powering vehicles. In addition to cycle life, a battery must be durable . The EV1s two-passenger sports car design could only enough to last the life of the vehicle, which is usually satisfy a very small market segment. estimated to be about 15 years. Battery life is a very . Small volume production is a very costly proposition for a important success criterion because it has a large automotive company(a total of 1,100 were manufactured over four years). significant impact on vehicle economics. EV1s were leased at a loss to General Motors of about 100% of the lease cost. Battery Energy . CARB rescinded the ZEV Mandate in 2003, which Another important attribute is energy or specific canceled the regulatory benefits to the manufacturer. energy measured in watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg). During the late 1990s, when EV1s were manufactured, The specific energy of a battery translates into the battery technology was too immature. The EV1s reliable range was less than 100 miles. range or miles that a given vehicle can travel. The . The actual battery cost was over $8,000 per car. higher the specific energy of the battery, the greater the range of the vehicle. Although the film, “Who Killed the Electrical Car?” attempts to make a dramatic statement about the failure of the EV1, Battery Power electrics are certainly not dead. As battery technology improves, Battery power, or specific power, measured in watts as manufacturers better understand the unique attributes of EVs and as EV attributes are more closely aligned with market per kilograms (W/kg) is another battery needs, the EV will take it proper place as an important characteristic. Specific power is a measure of the contributor to energy efficiency and pollution reduction. acceleration performance that the battery will deliver. 2 Obviously, good acceleration is an important attribute General Motors EV1, requires about 30 kWh of for vehicle driveability. Electrics exhibit excellent capacity to provide a range of 150 to 250 miles. acceleration because electric motors deliver high Therefore, the battery cost is over $8,200 (30 x torque in an instant. $275), which is impossible to recoup at even $3 per gallon gasoline prices. Electric cars have limited Battery Cost range and higher cost than gasoline cars and are Batteries are made from various metals, such as expected to have these disadvantages for the lithium, nickel, lead, zinc, et al., and manufacturing foreseeable future. complexity varies depending upon the particular battery type. Consequently, the cost of a system can A SCENARIO FOR BATTERY POWER be quite variable. For comparison purposes, battery SUCCESS cost is measured in terms of dollars per kilowatt hour A battery is inherently a range limited power source. ($/kWh). A battery’s cost and its life will determine For example, a gallon of gas has about 65 times the its economic feasibility. energy as an equivalent volume NiMH battery. Another way of viewing this is that a typical battery Battery Comparison pack is equal to one gallon of gasoline on an energy content basis. This is a key reason why consumers Battery Comparison Chart3 will have a difficult time accepting the all-battery- Pb-acid NIMH Li-Ion powered electric car. The range limitation stifles the Specific energy 30-35 70 150 flexibility to which car drivers are accustomed.