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Frederick, Omar Al-Shahery C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Spillover from the Conflict in Syria An Assessment of the Factors that Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence William Young, David Stebbins, Bryan A. Frederick, Omar Al-Shahery Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr609 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Iraqi Shiite tribal fighters in Baghdad, Iraq (AP photo/Karim Kadim). Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again but in differ- ent directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the regime in Damascus. Instead, this outside support has the potential to per- petuate the existing civil war and to ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geogra- phy of the Middle East. This study examines the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Leba- non, Iraq, and Jordan. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the -Uni fied Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Summary .........................................................................vii Acknowledgments ............................................................... ix Abbreviations ..................................................................... xi Prologue ............................................................................ 1 CHapTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 3 CHapTER TWO Review of the Literature Concerning Conflict Spillover .................. 7 Additional Factors from the Literature that Contribute to Conflict Spillover .......................................................................10 CHapTER THREE Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Turkey ................................15 External Support ..................................................................16 Refugees ............................................................................16 Ethnic Ties .........................................................................18 Timing/Effectiveness of Intervention ...........................................21 Government and Insurgent Capabilities ...................................... 22 Conclusions ....................................................................... 23 v vi Spillover from the Conflict in Syria CHapTER FOUR Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Lebanon .............................25 External Support ................................................................. 26 Refugees ........................................................................... 27 Fragility of Neighboring States ..................................................29 Ethnic Ties .........................................................................31 Access to Open Media ............................................................31 Perceived Uncertainty ............................................................32 Government and Insurgent Capabilities .......................................33 Conclusions ....................................................................... 34 CHapTER FIVE Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Iraq ...................................35 External Support/Intervention ................................................. 36 Refugees ............................................................................37 Fragility of Neighboring States ..................................................39 Ethnic Linkages/Cultural Ties ..................................................41 Access to Technology/Open Media ............................................ 42 Government and Insurgent Capabilities ...................................... 43 Conclusions ........................................................................45 CHapTER SIX Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Jordan ................................47 External Support ................................................................. 48 Refugees ........................................................................... 50 Fragility.............................................................................51 Ethnic Ties .........................................................................52 Access to Open Media ............................................................52 Perceived Uncertainty ............................................................53 Timing/Effectiveness of Intervention ...........................................53 Government and Insurgent Capabilities ...................................... 54 Conclusions ........................................................................55 CHapTER SEVEN Conclusions and Recommendations .........................................57 References .........................................................................61 Summary For the purpose of this study, spillover refers to the spread of violent conflict and its ramifications from civil war in Syria between the Ala- wite regime of Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus and its disjointed, albeit committed, rebel opposition. The study identifies the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Leb- anon, Iraq, and Jordan. The literature on armed conflict shows that the following fac- tors contribute directly to the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency: • External military support • Large numbers of refugees • Fragility of neighboring states. Additional factors are: • Ethnic