Organized by: BUILDING RESILIENCE OF MONGOLIAN RANGELANDS A TRANS-DISCIPLINARY RESEARCH CONFERENCE June 9-10, 2015 Sponsoråd by: -1- DDC 636.07845 M-691 Copyright © 2015 by Nutag Action and Research Institute All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of the authors or publisher. Tsogt Print 2015. Printed in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia ,6%1 ISBN 978-99962-971-7-5 Proceedings of Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-disciplinary Research Conference, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, June 9-10, 2015 Edited by: María E. Férnández-Giménez Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, USA Batkhishig Baival Nutag Action and Research Institute, Mongolia Steven R.Fassnacht Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, USA David Wilson Nutag Action and Research Institute, Mongolia Translated by: Chimgee Ganbold Dugermaa Vanluu Munkhzul Purevsuren Peace Bridge Training Center, Mongolia -2- Contents Acknowledgement of Conference and Proceedings Funders Proceedings Sponsors Statement Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans‐disciplinary Research Conference – Preface Maria E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, Steven R. Fassnacht, Batkhishig Baival PART I Rangeland Ecology and Management 1 Mongolian Rangeland Ecological Capacity, and Results of Studying Opportunities of Using It in Rangeland Management Bulgamaa Densambuu, Budbaatar Ulambayar, Ankhtsetseg Battur, Sainnemekh Sainnemekh, Nyam‐Ochir Gankhuyag, Bestelmeyer Brandon 2 Towards a National GIS Model to Map Terrestrial Ecosystems in Mongolia: A Pilot Study in the Gobi Desert Region Michael Heiner, Batsaikhan Nyamsuren, Galbadrakh Davaa, Bayarjargal Yunden, Zumberelmaa Dash, Ariungerel Dorjgotov, Jeffrey Evans, Henrik von Werden, Joseph Kiesecker 3 Is Overgrazing A Pervasive Problem Across Mongolia? An Examination of Livestock Forage Demand and Forage Availability from 2000 to 2014 W Gao, J.P. Angerer, Maria E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, R.S. Reid 4 Distance‐to‐Well Effects on Plant Community Based on Palatability and Grazing Tolerance in the Desert‐steppe of Mongolia Amartuvshin Narantsetseg, Sinkyu Kang, Dongwook Ko 5 Changes in Soil Properties along Grazing Gradients in the Mountain and Forest Steppe, Steppe and Desert Steppe Zones of Mongolia Baasandorj Ya, Khishigbayar J, Maria E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, Tsogtbaatar J, Delgertsetseg R, Chantsallkham J 6 Land Degradation Assessment in Gobi‐Altai Province Oyudari Vova, Martin Kappas, Tsolmon Renchin, Jan Degener 7 Satellite‐based Assessments on Regional Summer and Winter Conditions Triggering Massive Livestock Loss (Dzud) in Mongolia Sinkyu Kang, Keunchang Jang, Bolorerdene Lkhamsuren 8 Phenology of Stipa krylovii roshev. and Stipa tianschanica var. Klemenzii roshev., Species Dominating the Vegetation Communities of Hustai National Park Tserendulam Ts, Oyuntsetseg B, Nyambayar D, Bayarsaikhan U PART II Climate Change and Hydrology 9 Spatial Changes in Climate across Mongolia Niah B. H. Venable, Steven R. Fassnacht, Alyssa D. Hendricks 10 How Unusual Was the 21st Century Drought in Mongolia? Placing Recent Extremes in an 1100‐ Year Context? Amy E. Hessl, Neil Pederson, Oyunsanaa Byambasuran, Kevin Anchukaitis, Caroline Leland 11 Earlywood, Latewood, and Adjusted Latewood Correlations to Precipitation: A Test Case from the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia J. Marshall Wolf, Niah B.H. Venable 12 Characterizing Environmental Low Flows in Terms of Magnitude, Duration and Frequency Scott J. Kenner, Soninkhishig Nergui, Tumurchudur Sodnom, Tsogzolmaa Khurelbaatar 13 A Journey Down the Tuin: the Hydraulics of an Internal Draining River from the Khangai Mountains to the Gobi Desert Steven R. Fassnacht, Niah B.H. Venable, Jigjsuren Odgarav, Jaminkhuyag Sukhbaatar, Gelegpil Adyabadam PART III Institutional Innovations in Mongolian Rangelands 14 What Matters Most in Institutional Design for Community‐Based Rangeland Management in Mongolia? Tungalag Ulambayar, Maria E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, Batbuyan Batjav, Batkhishig Baival 15 What Explains Positive Social Outcomes of Community‐Based Rangeland Management in Mongolia? Tungalag Ulambayar, Maria E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, Batbuyan Batjav, Batkhishig Baival 16 Do Formal, Community‐based Institutions Improve Rangeland Vegetation and Soils in Mongolia More than Informal, Traditional Institutions? Robin S. Reid, Chantsallkham Jamsranjav, Maria E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, Jay Angerer, Altanzul Tsevlee, Baasandorj Yadambaatar, Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav, Tungalag Ulambayar 17 Time Series Analysis of Satellite Greenness Indices for Assessing Vegetation Response to Community Based Rangeland Management J.P. Angerer, J.K. Kretzschmar, J. Chantsallkham, K. Jamiyansharav, R. Reid, Maria E. Fernandez‐ Gimenez 18 Management of Dzud Risk in Mongolia: Mutual Aid and Institutional Interventions Eric D. Thrift, Byambabaatar Ichinkhorloo 19 Resilience, Values and Ecosystem Services: Innovations in Rangeland Governance Caroline Upton, D. Dulmaa, N. Nyamaa 20 Dzud and Thresholds of ‘Property’ in Mongolian Pastoralism Daniel J Murphy 21 Contemporary Mobility of Herders in Central Mongolia Azjargal Jargalsaikhan, Batbuyan Batjav, Batkhishig Baival, Tungalag Ulambayar, Tamir Lhagvasuren, Solongoo Tsogtbaatar 22 Evolution of Common Resource Tenure and Governing: Evidence from Pastureland in Mongolia Plateau Yaoqi Zhang, Amartuvshin Amarjargal 23 To Fence or Not to Fence? Perceptions and Attitudes of Herders in Inner Mongolia Yecheng Xu, Yaoqi Zhang, Liping Gao, Guanghua Qiao, Jiquan Chen PART IV Social and Economic Development in Rural Mongolia 24 Social‐Ecological Vulnerability Analysis for the Green Development Policy Implementation in Local Level of Mongolia Altanbagana Myagmarsuren, Suvdantsetseg Balt, Chuluun T, Nominbolor Kh, Kherlenbayar B 25 Early Warning System for Pastoral Herders to Reduce Disaster Risk by Using a Mobile SMS Service Suvdantsetseg Balt, Akihiro Oba, Yan Wanglin, Altanbagana Myagmarsuren 26 The Influence of the Booming Mining Industry on the Agricultural Sector in Mongolia Wei Ge, Henry W. Kinnucan 27 How Does Local Mining Impact on Rural Immigration? The Case of Mongolia Amartuvshin Amarjargal, Yaoqi Zhang, Jiquan Chen 28 Planning an Agent‐Based Network for Livestock Production and Meat Distribution in Mongolia Wanglin Yan, Aikihiro Oba, Suvdantsetseg Balt PART V Methods of Knowledge and Data Integration in Coupled Natural‐Human Systems 29 The MOR2 Database: Building Integrated Datasets for Social‐ecological Analysis Across Cultures and Disciplines Melinda J. Laituri, Sophia Linn, Steven R. Fassnacht, Niah Venable, Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav, Tungalag Ulambayar, Arren Mendezona Allegretti, Robin Reid, Maria Fernandez‐Gimenez 30 Modeling System Dynamics in Rangelands of the Mongolian Plateau Ginger R.H. Allington, Wei Li, Daniel G. Brown 31 Participatory Mapping and Herders’ Local Knowledge on Mongolia’s Landscapes and Socio‐ ecological Boundaries Arren Mendezona Allegretti, Melinda Laituri, Batbuyan Batjav, Batkhishig Baival 32 Integrating Herder Observations, Meteorological Data and Remote Sensing to Understand Climate Change Patterns and Impacts across an Eco‐Climatic Gradient in Mongolia M.E. Fernandez‐Gimenez, J.P. Angerer, A.M. Allegretti, S.R. Fassnacht, A. Byambasuren, J. Chantsallkham, R. Reid, N.B.H. Venable 33 Comparing Herders' Observations of Climate Change Impacts with Weather and Remote Sensing Data Odgarav Jigjsuren, Batkhishig Baival, Kherlentuul Nayanaa, Azjargal Jargalsaikhan, Khurelbaatar Dash, Bayarmaa Badamkhand, Amarzaya Bud Acknowledgement of Conference and Proceedings Funders The Organizing Committee of the Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-disciplinary Research Conference would like to acknowledge all supporters and organizers of this conference. Major funding for this conference was provided by the US National Science Foundation (CNH Program Grant No. BCS-1011), the Embassy of the United States of America, and The Reed Funk Foundation Account at Utah State University. Additional support was provided by the Climate-Resilient Rural Livelihoods Project (JFPR 9164-MON) funded by Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction administered by Asian Development Bank, The Nature Conservancy’s Mongolian Program, The Sustainable Fibre Alliance and Land Test LLC. We thank our colleagues and partners from Colorado State University’s Warner College of Natural Resources, Nutag Action Research Institute, American Center for Mongolian Studies, Research Institute of Animal Husbandry, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Institute of Geography and Geo-Ecology, Mongolian Foundation of Science and Technology, Mongolian Society for Rangeland Management, and the Center for Nomadic Pastoralism Studies for their collaboration and support in preparing for this conference. All these contributions have been instrumental in maintaining this highly successful program. CLIMATE-RESILIENT RURAL LIVELIHOODS PROJECT (JFPR 9164-MON) INTRODUCTION The Climate-Resilient Rural Livelihoods (JFPR 9164-MON) Project is a program that is being implemented in Buutsagaan, Zag and Khureemaral soums of Bayankhongor aimag from June 2012 to June 2016, funded by Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction administered by Asian Development Bank. The total project budget is 2.8 million US dollars, out of which 2.5 million