REGIONAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY FOR THE NORTH EAST OF SCOTLAND Draft for Consultation August 2020 Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy 2040 2 Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy 2040 Chair’s Foreword I am delighted to bring forward this draft Regional Transport Strategy for consultation. Nestrans’ first strategy was produced in 2008 and was ambitious and aspirational. It contained a package of over a billion pounds’ worth of new infrastructure and at the time, many thought that it was unlikely to be achieved. However, here we are twelve years later with a new Western Peripheral Route, with upgraded railway infrastructure, new and refurbished rolling stock, expanded airport terminal and runway, a new harbour under construction, Park & Ride sites, cycling infrastructure and other road schemes including a new crossing of the River Don and an upgrade at Inveramsay Bridge. However, there is still much to do. The next stage in our strategy will be less about new infrastructure and more about making the most of our assets, especially our new and upgraded assets, and influencing behaviours to optimise the networks that we have. We need to lock in the benefits to ensure that traffic growth does not undermine the progress that we have made. The success of the previous strategy was founded on sound business cases creating a balanced package of measures. It was not a wishlist of grand ideas which were undeliverable and unaffordable. This strategy also avoids lists of unattainable “nice to have” schemes, which may be superficially attractive but would not achieve the objectives of the partners. Nestrans has recently conducted studies into a number of schemes such as reopening rail lines, dualling and upgrading roads or junctions, but has determined that not all of these are likely to meet the criteria for investment. They are therefore not included as proposals in this strategy. I believe this strategy is realistic yet ambitious – a coherent package of schemes to deliver against agreed objectives. We have also thought long and hard about affordability. Projects must provide value for money (demonstrating a positive business case where benefits exceed costs) and have a realistic chance of being allocated priority in funding authorities’ budgets, whether capital or revenue. The strategy also considers the potential for external funding streams which could help to deliver interventions and help to influence travel choice. This strategy has been prepared at a time of unprecedented challenges. Covid-19 has had an immediate impact which will be far-reaching and has created huge uncertainties: the only certainty is that nothing will ever be the same again. There is also a global climate emergency and we must play our part in reducing the impact of our transport choices on the planet. Locally, successive oil and gas downturns have impacted on our economy and on transport demands. The pace of change is unparalleled. Our challenge is to put in place a strategy which will guide us through the next two decades, yet will be flexible enough to react to trends and changes as they occur. RTS 2040 is the first of a new generation of strategy with a focus on interventions to deliver against agreed objectives around equalities, wellbeing, prosperity and climate. It has been crafted in a spirit of collaboration – a strategy produced in partnership for the region and its people and will depend on partners for its implementation and delivery. It is important that individuals and organisations respond to this consultation. We would welcome your comments, thoughts and contributions. Councillor Sandra Macdonald Chair, Nestrans 3 Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy 2040 1. Introduction 1.1. Nestrans is the Regional Transport Partnership for the north east of Scotland with a statutory duty to produce and deliver a Regional Transport Strategy. This RTS is a long-term strategy for the areas of Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire, which sets the vision and direction for transport in the region for the next 20 years. 2. Background 2.1. The first Regional Transport Strategy (RTS) for the north east of Scotland was published in 2008 and covered the period to 2021. This was refreshed in 2013 to incorporate significant developments in policy and to better align it with the timeframe of the Strategic Development Plan which looked to 2035. Both the original RTS, and its predecessor the Modern Transport Strategy, contained significant infrastructure investment proposals for both road and railway. 2.2. There has been considerable progress in delivering these infrastructure improvement elements of the previous strategies which have included: Road • Opening of the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route; • Dualling the A90(N) between Balmedie and Tipperty; • Inveramsay Bridge road upgrade to remove signals and a single track section of road on the A96; • Construction of the Diamond Bridge across the River Don in Aberdeen; • Airport Link Road and Park & Ride site at Craibstone in Dyce; and • Maintenance and improvement of roads and bridges on the strategic road network. Rail • A new rail station at Laurencekirk; • Re-doubling of the Aberdeen to Inverurie railway line; • Introduction of a new local rail service linking Montrose to Inverurie; • Rail freight gauge enhancements and freight facilities at Raiths and Craiginches; and • A new rail station at Kintore, currently under construction and due to open later in 2020. Walking and Cycling • Several active travel projects including major investment on the Deeside Way and Formartine & Buchan Way, investment in Integrated Travel Towns, facilities for cyclists including cycle parking at schools and development of new cycle routes and upgrades across the region. 4 Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy 2040 Bus • Upgrades to Peterhead and Fraserburgh bus stations, interchanges and Ellon Park & Ride site; • Real time passenger information for all bus services; • Enhancements to bus priority including a new section of bus lane on King Street, bus gate at Bedford Road, expansion to bus lane hours of operation on Great Northern Road and introduction of bus lane enforcement; • Operation of a fleet of hydrogen buses in and around Aberdeen as part of the European-funded Hydrogen Bus Project; and • Ticketing initiatives, including GrassHopper, a multi-operator integrated ticket. 2.3. Alongside these achievements, works are also underway with commitment to construction of: • Grade separation of the A90/A937 junction at Laurencekirk; • Haudagain roundabout improvements; • Dualling of the A96 between Aberdeen and Inverness; • Aberdeen to central belt railway journey time reductions; and • Upgraded access to the new Aberdeen South harbour. 2.4. Non-infrastructure achievements during the period of the previous RTS have included: • The creation of the multi-partner Getabout brand to promote sustainable travel and establishment of the Getabout bike roadshow; • Launch of the Co-wheels car club in Aberdeen; • Growth of demand responsive transport service provision, particularly the A2B service in Aberdeenshire; • The adoption of a health and transport action plan and launch of the Transport to Health Information Centre (THInC); • Delivery of a number of pre-project studies to make the case for improvements; and • Successful lobbying at Scottish and UK level for improvements to the region’s connectivity through air and rail service improvements. 2.5. The private sector has also achieved a number of transport improvements including: • Extension to the runway at Aberdeen International Airport; • Upgrades to Aberdeen International Airport terminal and parking facilities; 5 Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy 2040 • Improvements at Aberdeen, Peterhead & Fraserburgh harbours; • Introduction of a new airport bus service, service 727, now providing a 24-hour service; • New buses introduced on a number of key corridors across the region and • New rolling stock introduced on the Aberdeen to London rail route and sleeper service. 2.6. Further developments are underway including: • Aberdeen South harbour construction; and • Refurbished trains that are being introduced on the Scottish inter-city routes. 3. Key trends to 2020 3.1. The Nestrans Annual Monitoring Report provides information and background data to support the development of this RTS. It monitors 48 key indicators and highlights a number of key trends. The most recent monitoring report will be published in June 2020 and sets out the key trends in transport across the north east, pre-Covid-19, these are summarised in the points below. • Rail patronage saw significant growth from 4.6 million passengers in 2010/11 to 5.6 million in 2015/16. There has however been a decline in recent years to just over 4 million passengers in 2018/19, reflecting the economic downturn and substantial disruption due to ongoing rail improvement works. Patronage levels at Inverurie, Portlethen and Laurencekirk remain higher than their 2010/11 baseline levels whilst Aberdeen and Dyce have seen the greatest decreases in passengers over this time period. • Traffic in the north east has been slowly increasing since 2013, up to around 4.4 billion vehicle kilometres in 2018. Taking account of the growth in vehicle kilometres in the preceding decade, this has led to a growth in traffic of around 5% between 2008 and 2018. • The number of passengers through Aberdeen Airport reduced from its peak of 3.7 million in 2014 although there was some recovery through 2017 and 2018 as passenger numbers rose above 3 million passengers once again. At the time of writing, Aberdeen International Airport provided links to 41 destinations in 15 countries. • Passengers using Northern Isles ferry services through Aberdeen Harbour decreased from a peak of 156,000 in 2015 but recovered to 150,000 in 2018. Aberdeen-Lerwick is still showing an overall increase of 14% from the 2007 baseline. Aberdeen-Kirkwall is showing a decrease of 8% from the baseline. • The volume of freight through Peterhead and Aberdeen Harbours has seen an increase between 2016 and 2018, following a previous reduction, and now sits at 5.3 million tonnes. The two ports carry around 8% of Scotland’s maritime freight.