On September 11, 1992, the most AIR Tropical powerful tropical cyclone to strike the Hawaiian Islands in recorded Cyclone Model history made landfall on Kauai. Packing sustained winds of 140 mph, Hurricane Iniki pummeled Kauai and for Hawaii nearby Oahu, damaging or destroying more than 14,000 homes. AIR TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL FOR HAWAII Tropical cyclones are rare events in the Hawaiian Islands. During the past 50 years, just eight hurricanes have affected Hawaii, and useful observational and damage data are available for only two of these storms, Hurricane Iwa (1982) and Hurricane Iniki (1992). However, the scope of the damage caused by Iwa and Iniki The Eastern and Central Pacific spawn many tropical cyclones underscores the need for proactive (historical storm tracks are shown here), but only a few reach the Hawaiian Islands. The potential losses, however, can be large. risk management. If Iniki were to strike (Source: AIR) today, AIR estimates that insured losses would exceed USD 3 billion. DON’T BE FOOLED... Because the two most recent storms—Hurricanes Iwa If a storm as powerful as Hurricane and Iniki—have struck Kauai, there is a misperception Iniki were to strike near Honolulu, it that hurricane risk is limited to the western part of the island chain. However, AIR research into earlier would inflict insured losses 11 times Hawaiian cyclones that predate official record-keeping higher than those that would result found that all of the islands are at equal risk. from a recurrence of Iniki. The AIR Overall the AIR model is a Tropical Cyclone Model for Hawaii is comprehensive approach to estimating wind damage with a an essential tool for catastrophe risk remarkable level of information ... management developed using the most The return periods that this model predicts are similar to estimates I up-to-date meteorological research and have seen in the scientific literature. The AIR model is assuming equal modeling techniques. risk across the islands. Any person or group that thinks otherwise is Novel Method for Modeling Simulated engaged in wishful thinking. Storm Tracks Due to the scarcity of historical storm track data in Gary Barnes, Professor of Meteorology at the University of Hawaii, the Central Pacific, AIR scientists developed a novel Peer reviewer of the AIR model. technique for generating the tracks of the simulated storms that populate the stochastic catalog. The AIR model uses six hourly reanalysis data —in particular, steering currents in the region every six hours since 1948—to determine steering probabilities for simulated storms at each point of their evolution. 2 AIR TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL FOR HAWAII Capturing Directional Effects on Surface Wind Speeds with High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data To realistically capture surface wind speeds, the model must account for variation in the local environment. Winds arriving from the open ocean, for example, will be faster than winds that have traveled over mountains or forests, all else equal. Using the most recent satellite-derived, high-resolution land use/land cover N and elevation data from the United States Geological NW NE X Survey (USGS), the AIR model captures the effects of W E surface friction based on the direction of the wind at SW SE S each location. For example, in the Honolulu region of 0 3 6 12 18 24 Miles Oahu, a south wind will be relatively unobstructed as it approaches off the Pacific Ocean. In contrast, winds Winds arriving from the open ocean will be faster than those that have first traveled over land. (Source: AIR) from the northwest will degrade as they travel over built- up urban regions. The Industry’s First Comprehensive View of Damage Functions Account for Unique Hurricane Risk Across the North Atlantic, Construction Types and Regional Variation Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific Basins in Building Vulnerability Hurricane risk in the tropical Atlantic and the Central Pacific Hawaii’s building stock has changed over the past four are inversely correlated. During El Niño, high sea-surface decades and displays significant variability regionally and temperatures and low vertical wind shear enhance hurricane by age. Residential structures unique to Hawaii include risk in the Central Pacific. But the same upper-level changes single wall wood frame (see box), “tofu block” structures, in wind speed and direction that cause low vertical wind and hale. AIR engineers have developed wind damage shear in the Central Pacific lead to increased wind shear functions for 71 different construction classes, each (and thus, lower hurricane risk) in the tropical Atlantic. This further classified by height and by age. These damage inverse correlation is explicitly accounted for in the AIR functions reflect differences in: Tropical Cyclone Model for Hawaii, creating the industry’s — Regional construction practices first comprehensive view of hurricane risk across the North — Evolution of building codes Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins. — Historical tropical cyclone experience SINGLE WALL WOOD FRAME: A PREVALENT AND VULNERABLE BUILDING TYPE IN HAWAII Most single-family and duplex homes in Hawaii are wood frame construction, and about 40% of them are single wall wood frame. Because these structures have load-bearing walls made of thin plywood boards, they have greater susceptibility to wind damage. Single wall wood frame homes fared poorly during Hurricane Iniki and Hurricane Iwa and are among the most vulnerable construction types in Hawaii. 3 AIR TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL FOR HAWAII Pre-UBC 1985 UBC 1985 UBC 1991 IBC 2003/2006 (uplift ties required) (adopted (opening after Iniki) protection A COMPONENT-BASED APPROACH 1988 and prior or internal TO MODELING COMPLEX 1989 - 1992 pressure design) 1993 - 2007 INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES The AIR model employs a robust, component-based 2008 and later approach to estimate potential losses to industrial facilities. AIR assesses the overall vulnerability of various kinds of facilities (such as chemical plants and Relative Vulnerability oil refineries) based on the vulnerabilities of individual assets —the components and sub-components—that the facility comprises. The model implicitly accounts Residential Wood Frame (Kauai) for more than 550 distinct industrial components The AIR model accounts for temporal—and regional—variation in building code adoption and implementation. based on detailed, site-specific engineering-based risk assessments conducted through AIR’s Catastrophe Risk Engineering (CRE) service. Estimating Losses to Buildings Under Construction The vulnerability and replacement cost of a building Leveraging Air’s Detailed Industry Exposure under construction vary over the course of the project. Database for the United States For this reason, the AIR model supports the builders’ To produce the most reliable estimates of industry losses, risk line of business for both residential and commercial the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for Hawaii makes use of the construction, which features time-dependent cost comprehensive, high-resolution industry exposure database functions, or ramp-up curves, as well as damage (IED) developed for the entire United States. AIR builds the IED functions for wind that are based on extensive, by compiling detailed information about risk counts, building component-level analysis during each phase of characteristics, and construction costs, as well as information construction. The model estimates average annualized on policy terms and conditions. The IED provides a foundation project losses and losses for each phase of construction, for all modeled industry loss estimates. taking into account the seasonality of storms. For projects already under way, users can enter percent completed to estimate risk to the remaining part of the project. INCLUDING INDIVIDUAL BUILDING CHARACTERISTICS AND MITIGATION MEASURES TO YIELD A MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF BUILDING DAMAGE The AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for Hawaii accounts for individual risk characteristics of structures, such as window protection, and mitigation features such as hurricane clips. These characteristics can be evaluated singly and in combination, yielding a more accurate assessment of wind vulnerability. 4 AIR TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL FOR HAWAII Air Validates Its Models from the Bottom Up—and the Top Down EXTREME DISASTER To ensure the most robust and scientifically rigorous model SCENARIOS AS TOOLS FOR possible, each model component is independently validated DETERMINING LARGE LOSS against multiple sources and data from historical events. AIR POTENTIAL modeled wind speeds, for example, are validated against To help assess large loss potential in Hawaii, observation data from actual storms. four Extreme Disaster Scenarios (EDS events) are included in the model. These EDS events It doesn’t matter how well modeled wind speeds match are realistic and scientifically sound hypothetical observed wind speeds, however, if the final losses don’t tropical cyclones that would inflict very high make sense. Modeled losses yielded by the AIR Tropical damage on the Hawaiian Islands, if they were Cyclone Model for Hawaii have been carefully validated to occur. To create the four EDS events, AIR against reported losses from PCS and other sources, by scientists generated deterministic variations on event and by line of business. Hurricane Iniki by changing parameters such as central pressure and wind duration, yielding 140 140 KAPAA BARKING 120 hypothetical—yet scientifically plausible— 120 SANDS 100 100 mph) ( mph) ( 80 d WIND SPEED storms more powerful than Iniki. Each of these d 80 ee p ee 60 (MPH) S p 60 S nd 40 i EDS events would make landfall on Oahu near nd 140 i 40 W W 20 20 80 0 Honolulu, where most exposures are located. 0 Observed Simulated Observed Simulated 0 140 LIHUE 120 100 mph) ( d 80 ee p 60 S 140 HONOLULU nd i 40 120 W 20 100 mph) 0 ( 80 Observed Simulated d ee p 60 S nd i 40 W 20 0 Observed Simulated I conclude that the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for Hawaii has been developed using prudent AIR modeled wind speeds consistently reproduce observed and verified scientific and patterns.