School Organisation Data Supplement 2019 2 CONTENTS FIGURES AND CHARTS INDEX .............................................................................................................................. 4 PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5 DEMOGRAPHIC AND OTHER FORECASTING DATA ....................................................................................... 7 1. NURSERY & EARLY YEARS PROVISION ....................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Existing Provision ................................................................................................................................ 10 1.2 Future Provision .................................................................................................................................. 11 2. PRIMARY ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 2.1 Existing Provision ................................................................................................................................ 12 2.2 Forecasting Influences ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Future Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 14 3. SECONDARY .......................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Existing Provision ................................................................................................................................ 23 3.2 Forecasting Influences ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.3 Future Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 24 4. POST-16 ................................................................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Existing Provision ................................................................................................................................ 29 4.2 Forecasting Influences ........................................................................................................................ 29 4.3 Future Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 29 5. INCLUSION & SPECIAL NEEDS ........................................................................................................................ 32 5.1 Special Educational Needs Provision .................................................................................................. 32 5.2 Provision in Mainstream Schools through Learning Resource ........................................................... 34 5.3 Elective Home Education .................................................................................................................... 34 5.4 Children without a School Place .......................................................................................................... 34 5.5 Medical Tuition by the LA .................................................................................................................... 35 5.6 SEN Progression onto Post-16 and Employment ............................................................................... 35 3 FIGURES AND CHARTS INDEX Figure 1: School Population by Sector ...................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Pupil Numbers by School Year and Age Group ....................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Map showing all Schools in the Borough ................................................................................. 9 Figure 4: Number of Children Funded at Private Nursery Providers ................................................... 10 Figure 5: Actual Numbers of Pupils in Maintained Nursery Units ........................................................ 11 Figure 6: Pupil Mobility across all Primary Schools listed by Cluster ................................................. 15 Figure 7: Primary Schools List with Current and Forecast Numbers, Capacity and Surplus Places16 Figure 8: Ethnic Data for Southend Primary Schools ............................................................................ 17 Figure 9: Pupil Numbers Attending Southend Schools Who Travel in From Outside the Borough . 17 Figure 10: Primary School Attended against Home Catchment Area ................................................... 18 Figure 11: Borough Births, Admissions to Reception & School Capacity ........................................... 19 Figure 12: Forecast of Primary Reception Admissions & Total Populations ....................................... 19 Figure 13: Births in the Borough by Geographical School Grouping (Clusters) ................................. 19 Figure 14: Map showing all Primary Schools in the Borough ................................................................ 20 Figure 15: Reception Year Forecasts Demand by Group Area .............................................................. 21 Figure 16: Known Larger Housing Developments and Overall Totals by Primary School Group ..... 22 Figure 17: Secondary Schools List with Current and Forecast Numbers ............................................ 25 Figure 18: Ethnic Data for Southend Secondary Schools ...................................................................... 26 Figure 19: Secondary 11-16 Actual & Forecast Rolls and Year 7 .......................................................... 26 Figure 20: Pupil Mobility Data for Southend Secondary Schools.......................................................... 26 Figure 21: Destination of Year 6 Leavers – Summer 2018 ...................................................................... 27 Figure 22: Essex Resident Pupils on Roll in Year 7 at Southend Secondary Schools ....................... 28 Figure 23: Year 7 Southend Resident Pupils on Roll in Rochford and Castle Point Secondary Schools ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 Figure 24: Summary of Year 7 Out Of and Into Borough Migration....................................................... 28 Figure 25 a & b : Post-16 Student Numbers on Roll at Southend Schools ........................................... 30 Figure 26 : Current Post-16 Student Numbers by School and School Year ......................................... 31 Figure 27: Post-16 Actual & Forecast numbers in Secondary Schools ................................................ 31 Figure 28: Numbers of Pupils with Special Needs by School Phase .................................................... 32 Figure 29: SEND Progression onto Post-16 and Employment ............................................................... 35 Figure 30: Southend Special Schools and PRU provision List .............................................................. 36 Figure 31: Special Schools and PRU - Pupil Numbers by Education Phase with Historic Totals ...... 36 Figure 32: Special Schools and PRU - Percentage of Pupils from outside Southend Borough ........ 37 Figure 33: Schools Bases in Mainstream Schools - Pupil Numbers by Education Phase with historical data .............................................................................................................................................. 37 Figure 34: Pupils Receiving Miedical Tuition by LA including historical data ..................................... 37 Figure 35: Pupils with Special Educational Needs Attending Mainstream Schools ............................ 38 4 PREFACE Southend on Sea Borough Council, all Southend schools, partner agencies and children and young people themselves aim to secure continuous improvement across the key areas of: Improving Children’s health and wellbeing, Keeping young people safe and protected from harm, Supporting vulnerable children and families, Improving children’s educational attainment and future prospects. This Data Supplement is to give a clear analysis of demography, the organisation of school places, and the need to add, remove, relocate or otherwise re-organise school places. No consultation is required and the Supplement’s publication is for information only. An electronic copy of the Data Supplement is available on the Southend-on-Sea Borough Council website. Significant pupil number changes over recent years In 2010/11, the birth rate in Southend peaked at 2,289. Numbers fluctuated over the following five years with a small overall drop, (see figure eleven on page nineteen) with some areas of the borough seeing increases. Since 2015/16 the reduction in the total number of births in the borough has continued in line with national trends. Since 2014/15 the overall primary numbers have increased steadily up to 15,135 in 2018/19, as the higher birth rates fill the primary schools year on year (see figure