Volume 25, Number 4 Fourth Quarter 2005 RISKnewsletter Published by the SOCIETY for RISK ANALYSIS Specialty Group Leaders Provide Reports from the Field Adam M. Finkel As the new chair of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Specialty Groups Committee, I asked the chair of each group to take a stab at an end-of-the-year “report from the field”—to give SRA members unable to keep up with developments outside their own area of special interest a brief sense of what might be new and exciting in other specialties. I appreciate the thoughtful submissions and hope they will spur interest in related sessions that the groups are sponsoring at the 2005 SRA Annual Meeting in Orlando, 4-7 December. Exposure Assessment Katherine Walker What’s hot in exposure assessment? Since some form of ex- studies. Much of exposure measurement research has been posure assessment is an integral part of the risk assessment focused on concentrations of contaminants in various media paradigm, efforts to improve the methodology are ongoing in but has shed little light on the relationship between exposure many research areas. I’ll highlight and human health. Two large new just a few: federal health studies are seeking . to give SRA members to remedy this problem, the Na- Clean Air Regulations and Mer- tional Children’s Study and the cury Exposures in Fish: Just this unable to keep up with Agricultural Health Study. past March, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promul- developments outside their National Children’s Study: Spon- gated the Clean Air Mercury Rule, sored by a consortium of federal the first rule any national govern- own area of special agencies, the National Children’s ment has produced to not only cap, interest a brief sense of Study will follow over 100,000 chil- but also reduce, emissions of mer- dren in 96 centers around the United cury from coal-fired power plants. what might be new States, studying the effects of a Together with the EPA’s Clean Air wide variety of “environmental” fac- Interstate Rule, the Mercury Rule and exciting in tors on health and development. is projected to reduce mercury emis- Children will be followed before sions by about 70%. other specialties. birth until they reach the age of 21. Analysis of exposures to mercury Both natural and man-made envi- through its transport, deposition, ronmental factors will be evaluated, transformation, and uptake in aquatic organisms played an im- including biological and chemical factors, physical surround- portant part in developing the rule. The potential risks posed to ings, social factors, behavioral influences, genetics, cultural women of childbearing age and to their unborn children from and family influences, and geographic location. See http:// eating fish contaminated with methylmercury was a key finding nationalchildrensstudy.gov for details. of the analysis. See http://www.epa.gov/air/mercuryrule for more information. The Agricultural Health Study: The Agricultural Health Study Regulations like the Clean Air Mercury Rule often rely on plans to do for agricultural workers and their families what the theoretical risks estimated by integrating projected exposures previous study hopes to do for children. The multiyear study with dose-response data derived from very different types of (Reports from the Field, continued on page 4) Inside RISK President’s Message ....................... 2 Member News ................................. 9 Committees ................................... 12 2005 SRA Annual Meeting ............. 3 SRA-Europe .................................. 10 Specialty Groups ........................... 13 Chapter News.................................. 7 SRA-Japan .................................... 11 News and Announcements ........... 14 Regulatory Risk Review .................. 8 Journal Call for Papers .................. 12 Advertisements............................. 15 2005 SRA Annual Meeting information on page 3 2 President’s Message Risk Analysis—For the People The tragedy of Hurricane Katrina should give pause envelope of understanding could be expanded with prop- for anyone in the risk business. I am writing on 5 Sep- erly designed messages. tember, while there are, likely, people still dying in iso- Irrelevant communications. To what extent did lated quarters of the New Orleans area. Although there messages contain the information that citizens needed will be better evidence later, the passage of time can most? Where they did not, the system should be rede- also blur both memory and emotion. The “blame game” signed to identify the facts that are most critical to citi- is currently a repeated phrase. One can safely assume zens’ needs (and do not go without saying). Evaluating that it will be played long after this column is published. this possibility requires determining whether communi- What might fade, though, is the “shame game” of won- cations were driven by public health concerns (focused dering whether we have somehow been part of this on the welfare of the audience) or public affairs con- risk management failure. cerns (focused on the image of the source). The theme of my presidential columns has been how Inappropriate communicators. To what extent did we can create behaviorally realistic risk analyses. My citizens so disdain the messenger that they ignored critical, first column considered the appropriate level of com- comprehensible information? Where that happens the plexity, as dictated by risk realities and decision mak- messenger needs to be improved or replaced. Evaluat- ers’ needs. The second considered how to identify be- ing that possibility requires looking at the perceived hon- havioral determinants of system performance and use esty and competence of both the individual communi- research results (rather than ad hoc assumptions) to cators and the institutions that they represent. estimate them. The third considered using expert judg- Inadequate analysis. To what extent did communi- ment wisely, recognizing the experts are people, too. cators not know what to say, because the risks had not I had planned to conclude by writing about behavior- been analyzed properly? Where that happens, officials ally realistic risk communications. I hoped to close the should remain silent until they have done their home- loop (begun with the first column) by reflecting on how work. Evaluating this possibility requires looking at the to give people the information that they need in a form staffing and work practices of the official organizations. that they can process efficiently. These goals clearly Impossible situations. To what extent did communi- were not achieved for many people along the Gulf Coast. cators have nothing useful to say? Where that is the case, An investigation worthy of those who perished, those the honest thing to say is that “You’re on your own”—and who had their lives disrupted, and those who labored to try to be more useful the next time. Evaluating this possi- save them would examine the roles played by the fol- bility requires risk analyses that are realistic about the be- lowing factors: havior and performance of official organizations. Irrational citizens. To what extent did people fail to do These are intellectually challenging evaluations. Like sensible things, despite getting good information in a timely other forensic work, they are best pursued in a nonpar- fashion? Where this happens, an emergency system that tisan manner, with the needed natural, engineering, and relies on communication fails the test of behavioral real- behavioral science expertise. Lawyers have a valuable ism. Evaluating this possibility requires empirically estab- role as experts in legal constraints, but not as arbiters of lishing citizens’ goals and beliefs (for example, did they politically acceptable truths. Having local residents on know the risks, but stay behind for loved ones? Did they the team should increase its relevance to their concerns, hear conflicting messages and not know which to trust? realism about their circumstances, and comprehensibil- Did they stick around for the looting?—not nice behavior, ity to others like them. Their presence should also help but not necessarily irrational). to sustain the passion for getting it right next time. Incomprehensible communications. To what ex- tent did citizens not understand what they were told? Where they do not, either the emergency system should be abandoned or better communications are needed. Evaluating this possibility requires evidence regarding Baruch Fischhoff how actual messages were interpreted and how far the Pittsburgh, PA The Society for Risk Analysis RISK newsletter, Fourth Quarter 2005 3 2005 SRA Annual Meeting “25th Anniversary of SRA: Past, Present, and Future of Risk Analysis” 4-7 December, Buena Vista Palace Resort & Spa, Orlando, Florida Technical Sessions Die Hard Risk Analysts Monday-Wednesday, 5-7 December—Hundreds of individual Attend the last session on Wednesday, 7 December (3:30- presentations on topics covering engineering, exposure, dose 5:00 p.m.) and you will receive an official SRA-designed T- response, economics, decision analysis, ecological risk as- shirt and have the chance to win full credit toward 2006 SRA sessment, food and water, biological stressors, risk commu- Annual Meeting fees. nication, law, and others. Wednesday Roundtable Discussions Plenary Sessions A variety of roundtable discussions will take place noon- Monday, 5 December, 8:30-10:00 a.m.—25th Anniversary of 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday, 7 December (order a box lunch): SRA: Past,