Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend ASHESI UNIVERSITY The Demographic Transition and The Demographic Dividend: Does Ghana Stand A Chance? By Constance Awontayami Azong Undergraduate Thesis Report submitted to the Department of Business Administration, Ashesi University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration May 2020 Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend ii DECLARATION I hereby declare that this thesis is my original work and that no part of it has been presented for another degree in this university or elsewhere. Candidate’s Signature: …………………………………………………… Candidate’s Name: Constance Awontayami Azong Date: …………………………………………... I hereby declare that the preparation and presentation of this thesis was supervised in accordance with the guidelines on supervision of theses established by Ashesi University Supervisor’s Signature: …………………………… Supervisor’s Name: Dr. Stephen Emmanuel Armah Date: ………………………………………. Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS “I have observed something else under the sun. The fastest runner doesn’t always win the race, and the strongest warrior doesn’t always win the battle. The wise sometimes go hungry, and the skillful are not necessarily wealthy. And those who are educated don’t always lead successful lives. It is all decided by chance, by being in the right place at the right time”. With much gratitude to the Lord for making this work complete. My profound gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Armah, for being there in every stage of my thesis, I say, God, bless you. An exceptional thanks to my lecturer, Ms. Esther Afoley Laryea, for your vast networks. I was able to collect most of my study data, thanks to you. My deepest gratitude goes to researchers and students at RIPS for making time to talk to me in short notice. And a special thanks to Akua, a Ph.D. student at RIPs, for your enormous support in my data collection. I am especially grateful to the Ashesi University class of 2020; you guys are great! Your technical knowledge and collaborative spirit kept me going. Thanks to all my peer reviewers for your constructive and excellent feedback. I am most grateful to my family, who inspire me daily. I am humbled and honored. My final gratitude to all young people, you are doing great, keep on keeping on because I will too. Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend iv DEDICATION I dedicate the work to the vibrant youth of Africa Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend v ABSTRACT There is a lot of talk on this new wind of economic benefit – the “demographic dividends.” Many regions of the world have had their share of the demographic transition and dividend. Still, most countries in Africa are yet to receive it or might even miss it if they do not put in place the necessary structures and systems to reap it. The study, therefore, seeks to find the state of Ghana concerning the dividend. It explores the preconditions of attaining the dividend, which might have delayed Ghana’s chances of harnessing the DD and the roles stakeholders should play to enable Ghana capitalized on its demographic transition and dividend. The study, through a qualitative research approach, made use of both primary and secondary data collection sources. Content analysis was used to analyze the data. The analyses revealed that to gain and maximize the DD, Ghana must invest in the areas of education, health, governance, and economy. Ghana can leverage on the DD if this is done. However, there are significant challenges, such as a high dependency ratio and a low level of education among the youth that needs great attention. Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS BECE – Basic Education Certificate Examination DD – Demographic Dividend DT – Demographic Transition FDI – Foreign Direct Investment GDP – Gross Domestic Product IMF – International Monetary Fund NABCO – Nation Builders Corps NAS – National Academy of Sciences NTA – National Transfer Accounts PPP – Purchasing Power Parity RIPS – Regional Institute for Population Studies SDGs – Sustainable Development Goals SSA – Sub-Saharan Africa SHS – Senior High School TFR – Total Fertility Rate UN – United Nations UNFPA – United Nations Fund for Population Activities/United Nations Population Fund WICD – Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital WPP – World Population Prospects WW II – World War Two Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend vii TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................. iii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS .................................................................... vi LISTS OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ x LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi DEFINITION OF TERMS ............................................................................................... xii CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 The demographic transition and demographic dividend .............................. 1 1.1.2 Demographic dividend in the SSA context ......................................................... 4 1.2 Problem Statement ............................................................................................... 6 1.3 Research Question ..................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Research Objectives .................................................................................................. 8 1.5 Relevance of the Study .............................................................................................. 8 1.6 Scope of the Study..................................................................................................... 9 1.7 Overview of Research Methodology......................................................................... 9 1.8 Outline of the Study .................................................................................................. 9 CHAPTER TWO – LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................. 11 2.1 Overview of the Literature Review ......................................................................... 11 2.2 Theoretical Perspective of the Demographic Dividend .......................................... 11 2.2.1 The Pessimistic Theory ..................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 The Optimist Theory ......................................................................................... 13 2.2.3 The Neutralist Theory ....................................................................................... 15 2.3 Empirical Perspective of the Demographic Dividend ............................................. 16 2.4 The Demographic Structure of SSA........................................................................ 17 Running Head: Ghana’s Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend viii 2.5 The Economic and Demographic Structure of Ghana ............................................ 20 2.5.1 The Economic Structure of Ghana ................................................................... 20 2.5.2 The Demographic Structure of Ghana ............................................................. 20 2.6 Key Demographic Transition Policy Variables ...................................................... 26 CHAPTER THREE – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................................. 28 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 28 3.2 Research Strategy .................................................................................................... 28 3.3 Research Scope ....................................................................................................... 29 3.3.1 Study Population............................................................................................... 29 3.3.2 Area of Study .................................................................................................... 29 3.4 Sampling Strategy ................................................................................................... 30 3.5 Data Collection ........................................................................................................ 30 3.6 Framework for Data Analysis ................................................................................. 31 3.7 Validity and Reliability ........................................................................................... 31