COUNTRY REPORT Tanzania Comoros 2nd quarter 1997 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. 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ISSN 0969-6776 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Tanzania 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1997-98 9 Review 9 The political scene 13 The economy 17 Agriculture 19 Finance 19 Energy and water 20 Manufacturing and transport 21 Foreign trade, aid and payments Comoros 25 Political structure 26 Economic structure 27 Outlook for 1997-98 28 Review 28 The political scene 31 The economy 32 Foreign trade and payments 33 Mayotte 34 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 7 Tanzania: forecast summary (domestic) 8 Tanzania: forecast summary (external) 15 Tanzania: Union government budgets 17 Tanzania: selected financial indicators 22 Tanzania: external debt 23 Tanzania: external trade 23 Tanzania: indices of export unit values 24 Tanzania: net official development assistance 34 Tanzania: quarterly indicators of economic activity 34 Comoros: quarterly indicators of economic activity 35 Tanzania: foreign trade 36 Tanzania: UK trade 37 Comoros: foreign trade 37 Comoros: French trade EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 2 List of figures 8 Tanzania: gross domestic product 8 Tanzania: Tanzanian shilling real exchange rates 28 Comoros: gross domestic product 28 Comoros: Comorean franc real exchange rates EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 3 May 24, 1997 Summary 2nd quarter 1997 Tanzania Outlook for 1997-98: The CUF will remain disappointed in its wish for the annulment of the controversial 1995 Zanzibari presidential election. The pres- ident, Benjamin Mkapa, will spend 1997-98 consolidating his position in the face of opposition from the old guard of the ruling CCM. The anti-corruption campaign will continue. Drought will compress real GDP growth in 1997, but this should bounce back the following year. The shilling is expected to remain relatively strong as macroeconomic fundamentals improve. Review: The former CCM secretary-general, Horace Kolimba, launched a fierce attack on Mr Mkapa and his government, and then died suddenly. Divisions within the CCM have deepened as a cabinet reshuffle turned out to be a disap- pointment. Concern has been expressed over public ethics, law and order, and organised crime. The CUF has continued to allege human rights violations in Zanzibar, and is suffering from internal rifts, as is another opposition party, the NCCR. By-elections have been won by both the CCM and the opposition UDP. The IMF has authorised another drawdown under the ESAF. The introduction of VAT has been postponed, although other tax reforms are in the 1997/98 budget. A new investment code has also gone back to the drawing-board. Inflation is resurgent as drought forces food prices up: cash crops are also affected. The restructuring of the National Bank of Commerce has been confirmed. Dar es Salaam has suffered severe water shortages. The trade balance has improved and export prices remain steady. Comoros Outlook for 1997-98: The opposition will be cautious about talks with the president, Mohamed Taki Abdulkarim. France may delay sorely needed aid while Comoros’ relations with the IMF remain uncertain. The water and power parastatal, EEDC, is set for private management. Review: Unrest and strikes have challenged Mr Taki’s authority. Opposition politicians have been harassed and demonstrations crushed by force. Violent clashes on Anjouan island have left at least one protester dead. The cabinet has been reshuffled. More conservative Islamic measures have been enforced. An IMF-monitored economic programme has been instituted and pay cuts imposed on civil servants. France’s Sogea is the preferred bidder for EEDC. The MPM has suffered an election setback in Mayotte. Editor: Andrew Manley All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 4 Tanzania Tanzania Political structure Official name United Republic of Tanzania Form of state Republic, formed by the 1964 union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar Legal system Based on English common law, the 1977 Union and 1985 Zanzibari constitutions, as amended National legislature National Assembly, comprising 269 members (232 directly elected and 37 women appointed); elected members are chosen by Union-wide adult suffrage every five years; Zanzibar has its own House of Representatives of 59 members (nine women appointees), which legislates on internal matters National elections October-November 1995 (legislative and presidential); next elections due 2000 (legislative and presidential) Head of state President, elected by universal adult suffrage every five years National government The president, vice-president and Council of Ministers; last reshuffle February 1997 Main political parties The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM); Civic United Front (CUF); National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR-Mageuzi); United Democratic Party (UDP); Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) President Benjamin Mkapa Vice-president Omar Ali Juma Prime minister Frederick Sumaye Key ministers Agriculture & cooperatives Paul Kimiti Communications & transport William Kusila Community development, women’s affairs & children Mary Nagu Defence Edgar Majogo Education Juma Kapuya Energy & minerals Abdallah Kigoda Finance & planning Daniel Yona Foreign affairs Jakaya Kikwete Health Aaron Chiduo Home affairs Ali Ameir Mohammed Industry & trade William Shija Justice & constitutional affairs Bakari Mwapachu Labour & youth development Sebastian Kinyondo Lands, housing & urban development Gideon Cheyo Natural resources & tourism Zakia Meghji Science, technology & higher education Jackson Makweta Water & livestock development Pius Ng’wandu Works Anna Abdallah Central bank governor Idris Rashidi EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 Tanzania 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 GDP at market pricesa TSh bn 1,131 1,404 1,823 2,395 n/a Real GDP growtha % 3.8 3.9 3.0 4.5 4.7 Consumer price inflationa % 21.8 25.3 33.0 29.8 19.6 Population m 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.7b 30.6b Exports fob $ m 400 439 519 683 762 Imports cif $ m 1,510 1,465 1,505 1,541 1,394 Current account $ m –704 –770 –681 –629 –575b Reserves excl gold $ m 327.3 203.3 332.1 270.2 440.1 Total external debt $ m 6,495 6,655 7,095 7,333 7,658b External debt-service ratio (paid) % 39.7 28.5 18.7 17.4 17.2b Coffee productionc ’000 tons 47.1 47.9 48.5 43.5 52.0 Cotton (lint) productionc ’000 tons 76.5 68.8 48.4 44.5 84.2 Manufacturing indexa (1985=100) 110 110 101 n/a n/a Exchange rate (av) TSh:$ 298 405 510 575 580 May 24, 1997 TSh611.2:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1996b % of total Components of gross domestic product 1994b % of total Agriculture, forestry & fishing 55.7 Private consumption 89.6 Mining 1.4 Government consumption 7.7 Manufacturing 6.5 Gross fixed capital formation