Even the Himalayas Have Stopped Smiling CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY AND ADAPTATION IN NEPAL 'Even the Himalayas Have Stopped Smiling' Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal Disclaimer All rights reserved. This publication is copyright, but may be reproduced by any method without fee for advocacy, campaigning and teaching purposes, but not for resale. The copyright holder requests that all such use be registered with them for impact assessment purposes. For copying in any other circumstances, or for re-use in other publications, or for translation or adaptation, prior written permission must be obtained from the copyright holder, and a fee may be payable. This is an Oxfam International report. The affiliates who have contributed to it are Oxfam GB and Oxfam Hong Kong. First Published by Oxfam International in August 2009 © Oxfam International 2009 Oxfam International is a confederation of thirteen organizations working together in more than 100 countries to find lasting solutions to poverty and injustice: Oxfam America, Oxfam Australia, Oxfam-in-Belgium, Oxfam Canada, Oxfam France - Agir ici, Oxfam Germany, Oxfam GB, Oxfam Hong Kong, Intermon Oxfam, Oxfam Ireland, Oxfam New Zealand, Oxfam Novib and Oxfam Quebec. Copies of this report and more information are available at www.oxfam.org and at Country Programme Office, Nepal Jawalakhel-20, Lalitpur GPO Box 2500, Kathmandu Tel: +977-1-5530574/ 5542881 Fax: +977-1-5523197 E-mail: [email protected] Acknowledgements This report was a collaborative effort which draws on multiple sources, but was based largely on research produced by Wayne Gum and Prabin Man Singh with Bethan Emmett. Even the Himalayas have stopped smiling: Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal Lead Authors: Wayne Gum, Prabin Man Singh and Beth Emmett Editor: Wayne Gum Contributors: Sushila Subba, Karuna Amatya and all individuals interviewed Photo Editor, Design and Print Coordinator: Anisa Draboo Photographs: Bethan Emmett and Prabin Man Singh from Oxfam GB, Govinda Joshi and Paribesh Pradhan from ICIMOD Nepal 42 Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal Contents Executive Summary.................................................................................................................. i Climate Change and Nepal ..................................................................................................... 1 The Climate and Topography of Nepal ......................................................................... 1 Climate Change is already happening ......................................................................... 2 There is More Climate Change to Come ..................................................................... 2 What Are the Likely Climate Change Impacts? ............................................................ 3 Who Are the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change? ..................................................... 5 “Even the Himalayas have stopped smiling” Nepalis speak about Climate Change....... 9 Climate Changes Observed ......................................................................................... 9 How people are adapting and what they need in future ............................................ 19 Government Actions on Climate Change ........................................................................... 23 Other non-governmental initiatives ..................................................................................... 25 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 26 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 28 Short Term Actions ..................................................................................................... 28 Long Term Actions ...................................................................................................... 29 Appendices............................................................................................................................. 31 Appendix One: Persons Met ...................................................................................... 31 Appendix Two: Snapshot of Organisations Working on Climate Change in Nepal ........................................................................................... 33 End Notes ............................................................................................................................... 35 43 Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal Climate Change, Poverty and Adaptation in Nepal Executive Summary In February and March 2009, Oxfam conducted interviews in rural communities in three ecological zones (Terai, Hills and Mountains) and in the Mid and Far Western Development Regions to capture a snapshot of how climate change is already affecting people living in poverty. The results were remarkably consistent with regional climate change projections, and deeply worrying. Nepal’s diverse topography, fragile ecosystems and extreme poverty make it very vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. It is one of the 100 countries most affected by climate change, yet it has one of the lowest emissions in the world - just 0.025% of total global Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, with around 31% of its population of 28 million living below the poverty line. Most of Nepal’s poor living in rural areas rely on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. They are vulnerable to extreme weather events; and often have poor access to information and lack resources to help them cope with and recover from weather-related disasters. Climate Change is already happening and there is more to come. Temperatures are rising; glaciers are melting; rainfall patterns are “Before the rainfall was predictable. And we knew changing. when to sow seeds, to plough land and to harvest. Production was sufficient to feed a family. Now ■ Average annual temperatures have increased by rainfall is very uncertain and crazy. I have noticed 0.06°C since the 1970s, with this figure much higher a decrease in rainfall in the last 10 years and the in high altitude Himalayan areas. monsoon is starting late. Maize production is ■ Accelerated snow and glacial melt, has hardly enough for 3 months to feed a family and increased the risk of catastrophic Glacial Lake we cannot get seeds from the last year’s Outburst Floods (GLOFs) eg: Lake Imja Tsho, a harvest…now we have 5 pathi (12.5 kg) of grain. glacier lake, did not exist in 1960; today it covers This is the only food I have for the next year.” nearly one square km. The Imja glacier that feeds Dila Pulami, Tuday Village, the lake has retreated 75 metres between 2001 Kalyan Village Development Committee, Surkhet District. and 2006. i ■ Increase in extremes of temperatures. Days and substantially reduced electricity supply, since nights are becoming warmer and cool days and Nepal relies on hydropower for 91% of nights are becoming less frequent. This is electricity generated. particularly the case at higher altitudes. More intense ‘cold waves’ that destroy winter vegetables However the impact of the glacial retreat will be felt far are reported in the Terai region. beyond Nepal’s borders with the annual glacial melt ■ More intense rainfall events causing more from the Himalayas accounting for as much as 70% of landslides and floods. the summer flow in the Ganges and 50-60% of the flow ■ Increasingly unpredictable weather patterns in Asia’s great rivers. These could become seasonal including warmer, drier winters, delays in the should the Himalayan glaciers disappear and this summer monsoon and more intense precipitation could happen within the span of 30 years. The impact events affecting production of staple crops and on riverine communities would be catastrophic and resulting in declining water resources. could affect up to 1.3 billion people in Asia including 500 million people in South Asia alone. Climate scientists predict existing trends will continue, including more intense monsoons, more severe and The predicted impacts of climate change will heighten frequent floods; less rain and snow in the winter and existing vulnerabilities, inequalities and exposure to the continued retreat of the Himalayan glaciers, many hazards. Poor and marginalised communities tend to of which are retreating faster than the world average. be those most vulnerable to climate change and least One study has predicted that with a 2°C increase in able to cope with weather-related disasters because of global temperatures by 2050, 35% of the present lack of access to information and resources to reduce Himalayan glaciers will disappear. their risk. What are the likely climate change The majority of Nepal’s population are poor farmers impacts and who are the most reliant on rainfall and occupying small parcels of land vulnerable? that can barely produce enough food for the family. They are particularly vulnerable to climate change. They often live in areas most at risk to floods and Nepal is already a country vulnerable to natural landslides and are more reliant on local natural disasters particularly floods and landslides. Yet the resources such as forests and water and would country’s diverse topography and ecosystems also therefore suffer most from the drying-up of local water make it difficult to detect patterns and plan national sources and changes to vegetation cover. Even small responses. With an increased