22 March 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Automobile Manufacturers / Auto Parts & Equipment (Auto Parts (Japan)/Tire (Japan)/Auto (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT/MARKET WEIGHT/OVERWEIGHT Auto, Auto Parts Sector Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW Masahiro Akita 81 3 4550 7361 [email protected] 2016 China survey: Nissan, Jatco, Calsonic Koji Takahashi 81 3 4550 7884 Kansei, Unipres, Akebono Brake [email protected] ■ 2016 China survey: We recently toured factories and other facilities operated by Nissan (7201) and its suppliers in China, the world’s largest automobile market and one for which there is concern about near- to medium-term demand. Our visit took in Dongfeng Motor Company Limited (DFL)—Nissan’s JV with Dongfeng Motor Corp.—as well as manufacturing arm Dongfeng Motor Passenger Vehicle’s factories at Huadu and Dalian. Among suppliers, we toured Jatco (Guangzhou) Automatic Transmission, Calsonic Kansei (Guangzhou) Components Corp., Unipres Guangzhou Corp./Unipres Precision Guangzhou Corp., and Akebono Brake subsidiary Akebono Corp. (Guangzhou). We report here on where these companies think the Chinese market is headed and how their profits are faring. ■ Market views mixed, but optimism unwarranted: China’s automobile market reached 24.6mn units in 2015. All of the companies we spoke with expect continued gradual market growth over the longer term, but views differed on the near- to medium-term outlook. Tax breaks introduced at end- 2015 appear to be buoying demand, but the actual sales environment remains difficult. This has overseas brands struggling while local Chinese automakers—the tax cuts’ primary beneficiaries—gain market share. However, the prevailing view is that the best-positioned brands are those with the strongest new product pipelines, which is borne out by Japanese OEMs’ solid performance so far. Interestingly, some companies also believe that, with the tax cuts’ expiration at end-2016 likely to pressure demand in 2017, the Chinese government could announce additional stimulus measures. Our overall impression is that the Chinese market does not warrant optimism over the near term. Note that our China automotive team forecasts demand of 27.58mn units (+12.1% YoY) in 2016 and 27.56mn (−0.1%) in 2017. ■ Nissan’s Chinese sales could rise appreciably again in CY16: Nissan’s Chinese sales totaled 1.25mn units (+6.3% YoY) in 2015, making this the company’s second-largest market worldwide after the US (25% weighting). Nissan guides for Chinese sales of 1.3mn units (+4.0% YoY) in 2016 but we assume it will have an even higher internal target. Recently released models including the Murano, Qashqai, and Lannia have been selling well, and other new models including the Maxima are set for a China launch in 2016. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 22 March 2016 2016 China survey Nissan Motor (7201, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥1,250) Dongfeng Motor Company Limited (DFL) We visited Dongfeng Motor Company Limited (DFL), Nissan’s Chinese JV with Dongfeng Motor Corporation, for an update on China’s automobile market and Nissan’s operations there. The Chinese market reached 24.6mn units (+4.7% YoY) in 2015, and DFL expects continued gradual growth over the longer term. It expects growth to remain driven by the SUV and MPV segments, which accounted for a respective 32% and 11.7% of total demand in 2015 (from 11.3% and 3.7% in 2010). By region, demand is expanding well in western China (29% of total sales in 2015 vs. 24% in 2011). Excluding urban markets centered in eastern China, first-time buyers account for around 80% of total demand and are expected to remain a key source of support for the overall market. In addition, vehicle ownership in China remains at just 100 per 1,000 population vs. a global average of 200 vehicles per 1,000, and DFL accordingly sees substantial opportunities. However, the company is less optimistic on near-term demand. Although tax breaks on new-car purchases were introduced at end-2015, the sales environment remains difficult. This has overseas brands struggling while local Chinese automakers—the tax cuts’ primary beneficiaries—gain market share. DFL concludes that the best-positioned brands are those with the strongest new product pipelines. Nissan’s Chinese sales totaled 1.25mn units (+6.3% YoY) in 2015, making this the company’s second-largest market worldwide after the US (25% weighting). Nissan guides for Chinese sales of 1.3mn units (+4.0% YoY) in 2016 but we assume it will have an even higher internal target. Nissan’s Chinese passenger car business is being driven by Dongfeng Motor Passenger Vehicle (DFL-PV). DFL-PV accounted for 1.02mn units (+12.0% YoY) of Nissan’s Chinese passenger car sales in 2015 and is expected to sell 1.08mn units (+5.8%) in 2016. Recently released models including the Murano (launched in Aug 2015), Qashqai (Oct 2015), and Lannia (Oct 2015) have been selling well, and other new models including the Maxima are set for China launch in 2016. Note that the Venucia brand launched in 2014 only sold 122,000 units in 2015 for a 1.6% share. DFL-PV had 960 dealer locations as of 2015 (Nissan 750, Venucia 210), putting its urban coverage ratio at a world-class 85%. The company has also been aggressively pursuing sales financing as a strategic imperative and financed a high 28.4% of sales this past January. A “Young Nissan” promotional campaign launched at the end of 2014 targeting young buyers has contributed to an improvement in Chinese consumers’ overall opinion of the Nissan brand. A particular selling point for young consumers has been Nissan’s advanced safety technology i-Safety, included in the new Lannia launched in tandem with the campaign. DFL-PV’s manufacturing capability comprises factories at Huadu (No. 1 and 2 lines), Xiangyang, Zhongzhou, and Dalian. The local procurement ratio averages 93% for the Nissan brand and 99% for Venucia. Figure 1: Dongfeng Motor Company - Dongfeng Nissan Figure 2: Dongfeng Motor Company - Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company Passenger Vehicle Company Source: Photographed by Credit Suisse Source: Photographed by Credit Suisse Auto, Auto Parts Sector 2 22 March 2016 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company, Huadu plant We visited Dongfeng Nissan’s Huadu plant, a key production base of the Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company (DFL-PV). The facility, consisting of three units—No. 1 plant, No. 2 plant, and the powertrain plant—is also located close to a supplier park housing roughly 200 companies. Models manufactured at No. 1 plant (annual capacity 350,000 units), which started production in May 2004, include the March, Sunny, Tiida, Sylphy, and Livina. No. 2 plant (capacity 250,000 units/year) started production in January 2012 and mainly produces Sylphy, Lannia, and e30 models. In this visit, we toured No. 2 plant, a QCT benchmark facility employing the Alliance Production Way (APW) and among the global Nissan sites boasting a massive production scale. The plant, in addition to following the exemplary In-Sight/On-Sight process, is also a minimum Total delivery Cost (TdC) plant that keeps logistics cost to the minimum. Production here complements production at the existing plant (making it easier to raise or reduce production of certain models or total volume) via a flexible system supported by a wide-and-short production line (Full-Kit; automation-compatible). The plant is also environment-friendly, meeting the Nissan Green Program’s target for low VOC/CO2 emissions. We came away impressed by the automation of parts delivery to the assembly through the use of the kit and AGVs. The plant has also debuted a large, high-speed feed press with servo cushion in the press forging process and the Nissan Stand Line (NSL) hybrid body system, as well as introducing the water-based 3Wet system in the HEM and painting processes—all firsts for China. Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company, Dalian plant We also visited DFL-PV’s Dalian plant. With annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles, the plant started production in October 2014 and mainly produces the X-Trail and Qashqai. DFL-PV has set itself a medium-term goal of lifting the Dalian plant’s competitiveness from its middling position within the global Nissan-Renault alliance in 2015 to a leading position by 2019. We found it particularly impressive that the company has apparently attained 17% cost savings in its press forging process with a machine that combines equipment by IHI of Japan and JIER of China. The body assembly process has automation for 83% of its work, significantly higher than 56% ratio at Huadu No.2 plant. The painting process uses flash- off drying, the first such use in China, as well as a water-based 3Wet system and compact application, which enable Dalian plant to achieve 50% greater CO2 reduction and energy savings compared with Huadu No.2 plant. DFL-PV also aims to reduce capital spending and labor costs through the use of AGVs starting with preliminary parts supplies and through the adoption of a pit-less skid conveyor and the automation of tire and seat assembly. Figure 3: Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company Figure 4: Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company (Huadu No.2 plant) (Dalian plant) Source: Photographed by Credit Suisse Source: Photographed by Credit Suisse Auto, Auto Parts Sector 3 22 March 2016 Jatco JATCO (Guangzhou) Automatic Transmission We also visited JATCO (Guangzhou) Automatic Transmission, Jatco’s manufacturing and sales facility in China.