TUESDAY, MARCH 20, 2018 WILL THE CURSE OF EQUINE FATALITY RATE SHOWS MINOR INCREASE IN 2017, DOWN 20% FROM 2009 APOLLO FINALLY FALL? While the rate of fatal equine injuries remains 20% lower than the rate in 2009, an analysis of data from The Jockey Club=s Equine Injury Database (EID) has shown a modest increase in the figures for 2017 (1.61 per 1,000 starts) compared to 2016 (1.54 per 1,000 starts). The analysis, which was performed by Professor Tim Parkin, veterinarian and epidemiologist from the University of Georgia, also confirmed a 17% drop in risk of fatal injury on dirt and a 30% drop in risk of fatal injury on turf when compared to 2009, when the EID began collecting data. AAlthough fatality rates increased this year from last year, the increase in rates is not statistically significant,@ said Parkin. AHowever, the overall decline in the rate in fatalities since the creation of the EID is statistically significant and reflects a continuously improving safety record for North American racing.@ (Click to continue to p6) Justify | Benoit photo The Week in Review, by Bill Finley IN TDN EUROPE TODAY On the hardwood, and not the racetrack, we learned this week PARISLONGCHAMP BACK IN THE LIMELIGHT that there is no such thing as an irrefutable truth in sports. It ParisLongchamp reopens after a renovation, with the first was supposed to be a certainty that a No. 16 seed cannot beat a meeting scheduled on Apr. 8. Emmanuel Roussel has the details. No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They were, entering this Click or tap here to go straight to TDN Europe. year's tournament, 0-for-135. Let's make that 1-for-136. A school you never heard of, UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) not only beat No. 1 seed Virginia Friday, they walloped them, 74-54. And perhaps that's good news for Justify (Scat Daddy) and Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon). Magnum Moon cruised to victory in Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Park, looking the part of a serious contender for the GI Kentucky Derby. He won by 3 1/2 lengths over a very good horse in Solomini (Curlin). Next up will likely be the GI Arkansas Derby and then he'll prepare to take on 19 challengers in the Kentucky Derby. The bigger challenge, however, may be the Curse of Apollo. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without having started as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. As in it's been 136 years since the feat has been accomplished. (Do you believe in omens? It has been 136 years since Apollo and it was the 136th game played between a No. 16 and No. 1 where UMBC pulled off the shocking upset). When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it is the one "rule" that has stood up year after year, decade after decade. This year, it may get its stiffest test ever. Cont. p3 Tiznow – Unbridled Melody, by Unbridled’s Song | $12,500 S&N WinStarFarm.com | (859) 873-1717 PUBLISHER & CEO Sue Morris Finley @suefinley [email protected] V.P., INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS Gary King @garykingTDN [email protected] EDITORIAL [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Jessica Martini @JessMartiniTDN Managing Editor Alan Carasso @EquinealTDN Tuesday, March 20, 2018 Senior Editor Steve Sherack @SteveSherackTDN Racing Editor Brian DiDonato @BDiDonatoTDN News and Features Editor Ben Massam @BMassamTDN Associate Editors Christie DeBernardis @CDeBernardisTDN Joe Bianca @JBiancaTDN Assistant Editor Bobby Klatt ADVERTISING [email protected] Director of Advertising Alycia Borer Advertising Manager Lia Best Advertising Designer Amanda Crelin Advertising Assistants Alexa Reisfield Michelle Benson Photo Editor/Dir. of Distribution Sarah K. Andrew @SarahKAndrew [email protected] Social Media Strategist Trempolino 1984-2018. French champion 3-year-old colt Trempolino (Sharpen Up Justina Severni {GB}–Trephine {Fr}, by Vice Regal), pictured in 2010, passed away on Monday at the Director of Customer Service age of 34. Bred by part-owner Paul de Moussac’s American arm, Mayland Stud in Vicki Forbes [email protected] Kentucky, the chestnut is best remembered as the winner of the 1987 G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. See TDN Europe/International for story. | Emma Berry Marketing Manager Alayna Cullen @AlaynaCullen Director of Information Technology THUNDER GULCH DIES AT 26 8 Ray Villa Thunder Gulch, who won the 1995 GI Kentucky Derby and Belmont [email protected] S., succumbed to the infirmities of old age. He was 26 and had been Bookkeeper pensioned at Ashford Stud since 2015. Terry May [email protected] WORLDWIDE INFORMATION EDWARD BONNIE PASSES AWAY 9 International Editor Edward S. "Ned" Bonnie, an accomplished horseman, attorney Kelsey Riley @kelseynrileyTDN and equine advocate, passed away Saturday night in Louisville [email protected] at the age of 88, according to family members. European Editor Emma Berry [email protected] Associate International Editor Heather Anderson @HLAndersonTDN Newmarket Bureau, Cafe Racing Sean Cronin & Tom Frary [email protected] 60 Broad Street, Suite 100 Red Bank, NJ 07701 732-747-8060 | 732-747-8955 (fax) www.TheTDN.com TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 3 OF 9 • THETDN.COM TUESDAY • MARCH 20, 2018 Will the Curse of Apollo Finally Fall? Ironically, these two are scheduled to square off in the Arkansas Derby, and if either wins, they might just be the (cont. from p1) Kentucky Derby favorite. But what Magnum Moon did not about that curse? make his debut until Jan. 13, While it's still asking a lot of a horse winning a maiden special to win the Derby with so little weight race at Gulfstream. seasoning and just three months or Trained by Todd Pletcher, so after their first career start, undefeated and an easy common sense tells you it can be winner of the prep for the done. The "2-year-old" rule is not an Arkansas Derby, he won't irrefutable truth. even be the favorite in that The typical Kentucky Derby field of race. Justify will. the modern era bears no Trained by Bob Baffert, resemblance to the ones that lined Justify debuted Feb. 18 with up in 1948, >58 or >68. Back then, a dazzling maiden win at most horses had already run 12 or 13 Santa Anita. He backed that times prior to the Derby and, up with a 6 1/2-length win in probably, six or seven times as a a Mar. 11 allowance, 2-year-old. They were tough and another performance that experienced and had an advantage was nothing less than over a horse that had not been battle sensational. When it comes Magnum Moon | Coady photo tested. That's no longer the case. It to talent, it's quite possible will be hard to find a Derby starter this year who has had more that he has no equal among a 3-year-old male crop that is good than six or seven career starts or a lengthy 2-year-old campaign. and deep. KEENELAND OPENING WEEKEND STAKES Closing tomorrow, March 21 $1 MILLION TOYOTA $500,000 CENTRAL BANK BLUE GRASS (G2) ASHLAND (G1) 3-Year-Olds, 9 Furlongs 3-Year-Old Fillies, 8.5 Furlongs To Be Run Saturday, April 7 To Be Run Saturday, April 7 $300,000 MADISON (G1) $250,000 COMMONWEALTH (G3) 4-Year-Olds and up, F&M, 7 Furlongs 4-Year-Olds and up, 7 Furlongs To Be Run Saturday, April 7 To Be Run Saturday, April 7 $200,000 SHAKERTOWN (G2) $200,000 APPALACHIAN (G2) 3-Year-Olds and up, 5.5 Furlongs (turf) PRESENTED BY JAPAN To Be Run Saturday, April 7 RACING ASSOCIATION 3-Year-Old Fillies, 8 Furlongs (turf) To Be Run Sunday, April 8 $150,000 KENTUCKY UTILITIES TRANSYLVANIA (G3) 3-Year-Olds, 8.5 Furlongs (turf) $150,000 BEAUMONT (G3) To Be Run Friday, April 6 PRESENTED BY KEENELAND SELECT 3-Year-Old Fillies, 7 Furlongs & 184 ft To Be Run Sunday, April 8 TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 4 OF 9 • THETDN.COM TUESDAY • MARCH 20, 2018 That's just not how it is done anymore. been getting lately, Santa Anita has dropped the Big Cap purse The effects of how trainers now prepare horses for the Derby from $1 million to $600,000. have already been seen. Like Justify, Bodemeister (Empire "It's one of the most historic races, not only at Santa Anita, but Maker) was trained by Baffert and did not start at two. After in all of racing," Hammerle said. "We absolutely want to do winning the Arkansas Derby, he finished second in the 2012 something. The Dubai World Cup went back to dirt a few years Kentucky Derby. Curlin (Smart Strike), another Arkansas Derby ago and, lo and behold, the Pegasus came up two years ago. We winner that did not start at two, finished third in the 2007 kind of waited to see what would happen with the Pegasus. Kentucky Derby and went on to win the GI Preakness S. There had been some talk about the Pegasus coming to Santa Horses like Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) and Good Magic Anita, but it's been decided now that it will stay in Florida. (Curlin), top Derby contenders that raced at two, might have an "If we do not move [the Santa Anita H.] now, it's our fault. edge on Magnum Moon and Justify--but just an edge. Pigs will Looking at the calendar, we have a few places in mind. We could never fly. But a horse who has not raced at two will win a move it to opening day, but, to me, that's not the right thing to Kentucky Derby, perhaps as soon as this year.