CLIMATE CHANGE Prof. Petteri Taalas Director General/FMI Secretary General/World Meteorological Organization 2016-19 FACTORS AFFECTING CLIMATE P. Taalas 2 TEMPERATURE 20 000 BC - 2100 AD P. Taalas 3 TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN FINLAND 1847-2014 FMI Director General WMO Global Atmosphere Watch/Finland Baranov, Russia CO2 Mukteshvar India CH4 P. Taalas 5 CO2 BUDGET (2003-2012) 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 92% 4.3±0.1 GtC/yr 45% 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 8% + 27% 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr 27% Calculated as the residual FMI Director General of all other flux components 4.11.2015 6 INTEGRATED CARBON OBSERVING SYSTEM EC ESFRI, HQ at DYNAMICUM 120 M€ ~50 stations, annual budget >12 M€ FMI Director General 4.11.2015 7 OBSERVED CHANGES +0,85 C +19 cm FMI Director General 4.11.2015 WHAT HAS CAUSED THE WARMING ? 04/11/2015 9 WARMING OF OCEANS/HEAT CONTENT 1958-2009 P. Taalas 10 MELTING OF GLACIERS 1945-2010 P. Taalas 11 AMOUNT OF LARGE DISASTERS GROWING 4.11.2015 FMI Director General 12 ARCTIC SEA ROUTES IN SEPTEMBER 2006-2059 RED=ICE STRENGHTENED VESSEL, BLUE=NOT P. Taalas L. Smith, 2014 13 HEAT WAVES IN EUROPE August 2003, 66 000 Deaths July-August 2010, 55 000 Deaths Finnish Meteorological Institute 04/11/2015 14 CO2 EMISSIONS 1750-2011 OBSERVED CHANGES CO2 +40 % CH4 +150 % N2O +20 % TOP CO2 EMITTERS Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%) P. Taalas 16 EMISSIONS-WARMING TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION 2081-2100/1986-2005 TWO DEGREE GOAL BUSINESS AS USUAL WATER CYCLE 2081-2100 IPCC FMI Director General 4.11.2015 IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE IN TROPICS & MID- LATITUDES (RCP 6) EXTENSION OF GROWING SEASON 1971–2000 ń 2070–2099 (A1B-scenario) DAYS P. Taalas 21 SEA LEVEL RISE 1700-2100 04/11/2015 22 2000-2500? FMI Director General CO2 LIFETIME Susan Solomon, U of Colorado FMI Director General 04/11/2015 24 Lähde: OECD/IEA, 2014 TEOLLISUUSMAIDEN PÄÄSTÖKEHITYS JA INDC:T CONCLUSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE ALREADY OBSERVED • More weather related disasters and larger economic losses • In Northern Europe flooding risk is increasing WE MAY AFFECT CLIMATE 2060 ONWARDS BY CUTTING EMISSIONS • So far the carbon emissions have been dramatically increasing CHANGE WILL AFFECT AGRICULURE, ECONOMY AND REFUGEES • 1 billion potential refugees • Already one factor behind African and Arabic crises LARGEST CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC • New businesses • Military interest P. Taalas 27 THANK YOU! 4.11.2015 P. Taalas 28.