Integrated Risk Management of Flood Disaster in Metropolitan Regions of China∗ ----To Balance Flood Disaster Magnitude and Vulnerability in Metropolitan Regions 1,3 4,2 3 2 Peijun ShiP ,P Jingai WangP ,P Mingchuan YangP ,P Ying WangP ,P 2 2 2 Yan DingP ,P Li ZhuoP ,P Junhua ZhouP P 1. Institute of Resources Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; 2. Key Lab of Environmental Changes and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; 3.Research Center for Catastrophe Exposure and Insurance, SwissRe & Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; 4. Department of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China Abstract Metropolitan regions of China are mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of major rivers, and a number of water bodies and wetlands are occupied by cities due to the greatly changes of land use. So, they face very serious danger of flood and it is urgent to improve the flood prevention level to reduce the flood disaster in metropolis of China. However, the practices of disaster reduction of recent 5 decades in China show that flood disaster is increasing with fluctuating, that is, the vulnerability of metropolis is heightening. Based on the analysis of flood in metropolitan regions of China, this report establishes a risk assessment system combining flood hazard and human and economic systems of Guangdong Province, South of China, as the case study area. And in addition, basic land use system and enterprise risk management system with the combination of government-enterprise (community)-insurance company are presented to balance flood disaster magnitude and vulnerability in metropolitan regions. Key words: China, Metropolitan regions, Integrated risk management system, Security system of land use, Vulnerability of flood In the developing countries, urbanization process has been accelerating, and the various kinds of disaster risk faced by the metropolitans areas with dense urban population have also been increasing (ICE, 1995). Quite the contrary, a great number of metropolitan areas in the developing countries are distributed in the areas with frequent natural hazards (ICE, 1995). Hence, the solution for integrated disaster risk management in metropolitan areas has become the important task for disasters reduction in these areas. China is one of the countries in the world with frequent flood occurrences, with also relatively wider scope of impact (Shi, 1996). In the middle and lower reaches of major rivers and delta areas which have frequent occurrences of flood, the urbanization areas with dense population and rapid economic and social development are widely distributed to form almost the jointed metropolitan areas (Yao, 1997). Over the last two decades, of reform and opening to the outside world, urbanization process in the wide ∗ TP PT Research Project Financial Supported by Transformation Century Talents Foundation of MOE, China Corresponding Address: [email protected]. range of areas in China has been accelerating, especially in most of the eastern coastal areas in the lower reaches of major rivers where the process of urbanization becomes all the more outstanding and therefore evident metropolitan areas are formed (Zhou et al., 1999). At the same time, frequency of flood disaster occurrence has obviously increased in these areas during this period (Shi et al., 1997), particularly the disastrous flood in Yangtse River and Huai River in 1991 (Shi et al., 1992; Gu et al., 1992), the disastrous floods in Yangtse drainage area, and the drainage areas of Nen Jiang River and Song Hua Jiang River in 1998 (Zou et al., 2002), which all occurred in the metropolitan areas in the eastern part of China with a great number of cities concentrated. Consequently, integrated flood management in metropolitan areas has caught high attention of the central and local governments as well as various kinds of insurance companies in China. In connection with the impact of the rapid changes of the land use pattern in the metropolitan areas on the intensification of flood in China, this paper mainly elucidates the model for land use on flood integrated management of “balance flood disaster magnitude and vulnerability in metropolitan regions”, and proposes, the enterprise flood risk management model integrating “government - enterprise (community) - insurance company”. 1. Rapid Urbanization Process in Metropolitan Areas of China Fig. 1 Population Density of China (1997) Fig. 2 Distribution of Cities of China (1995) 19 92 19 ig. 3 Distribution of nighttimes lamplight index of China (1992,1996, 1998) Notes: the fig.3 numbers means to shown in Table 1. China is a developing country. Since reform and opening to the outside world, the Chinese economy has been experiencing rapid development, which is driving the accelerated urbanization process. From 1980 to 2000, the ratio of urban population to the total national population has been increased to from only 9.2% to 19%. According to forecast, by 2010 and 2050, this ratio will reach 39% and 49%, respectively (General Team for Urban Social and Economic Survey of the State Statistics Bureau of China, 1999). As the Chinese population is mostly distributed in the eastern areas of China, where the density of population and cities and townships also basically conforms to the pattern of population distribution (See Figure 1), most metropolitan areas in China are also concentrated in eastern part of China (See Figure 2). To indicate the Chinese urbanization process and its distinct and unique regional distribution, using the DMSP/OLSD data of non-radiating nighttime lamplight index, the spatial-temporal distribution of the Chinese urbanization has been measured (Zhuo, 2002). Figure 3 presents the Chinese urbanization distribution in 1982, 1996 and 1998. Table 1. Index of Lamplight of 10 Metropolitan Areas in China N o. Name 1992 1996 1998 1 Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan Region 0.362 0.410 0.495 2 Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Region 0.360 0.401 0.483 3 Zhujiang Delta Metropolitan Region 0.358 0.415 0.476 4 China North Plain Metropolitan Region 0.331 0.367 0.449 5 Shangdong Peninsula Metropolitan Region 0.303 0.337 0.423 6 Central Section of Liaoning Metropolitan Region 0.282 0.313 0.357 7 Harbin-Daqing-Qiqihar Metropolitan Region 0.298 0.306 0.350 8 Wuhan Metropolitan Region 0.234 0.270 0.347 9 Central Section of Hunan Metropolitan Region 0.212 0.245 0.311 1 0 Sichuan Basin Metropolitan Region 0.196 0.254 0.300 Table 2. Basic Conditions of Population and Economy of 10 Metropolitan Areas in China N Populatio GDP Industry Coun Area o. Metropolitan Region 2) n (billion Output (billion ties (kmP P 4 (10P )P RMBYuan) RMBYuan) 1 Yangtze River Delta 74 7570 9336.7 1110 2800 2 Beijing-Tianjin-Tangsh 56 4789 4428.2 475 796 3 Pearl River Delta 45 7222 3718.7 509 923 4 Central Plain of China 45 3853 2897.0 224 256 5 Shangdong Peninsula 34 5841 3490.4 403 464 6 Central Section of 39 7824 3075.0 341 483 7 Harbin-Daqing-Qiqihar 18 6889 1907.1 203 244 8 Wuhan Metropolitan 32 6898 3172.5 283 265 9 Central Section of 31 5119 2618.2 172 454 1 Sichuan Basin 77 1312 6811.6 347 401 It is clear, therefore, that the sum index of lamplight indicating the level of urbanization in the metropolitan areas is obviously higher than that of the surrounding areas. Table 1 illustrates the sum index of lamplight of 10 metropolitan areas in China in 1992, 1996 and 1998. From this Figure, it is clear that Yangtse River Delta, Jing-Jin-Tang Area and Pearl River Delta are the regions with the highest degree of urbanization in the metropolitan areas in China. Table 2 shows the basic conditions of population and economy of 10 metropolitan areas in China. It is clear from the Table 1 that the three foregoing areas with the highest degree of urbanization also correspondingly have the highest GDP, and especially the density of population, GDP and industrial output value per unit area in these regions are the highest. Hence, it can be considered that the metropolitan areas in China are also the regions which have the advanced economic development. Consequently, once hit by natural disasters, losses in these metropolitan areas will be enormous. 2. Flood Intensification Process of Metropolitan Areas in China China is a country with frequent flood disasters. Property loss due to flood has been the highest among numerous natural disasters. Figure 4 presents the county-level annual average flood-times distribution pattern in China. Figure 5 and 6 offers the county-level annual average flood-times distribution pattern in China from 1949-1999 and from 1978-1998. Fig. 4 Times of County Flood in China (1949-1998) Notes: the fig.4 numbers means to shown in Table 1. Fig. 5 Times of County Flood in China (1949-1966) Fig. 6 Times of County Flood in China (1976-1998) Notes: the fig.5 and fig.6 numbers means to shown in Table 1 140 120 100 From these Figures, it is obvious that flood in 80 60 China is mainly distributed in the middle and lower times 40 reaches of major rivers in the eastern part of China. 20 What’s obvious is that the floods during the period 0 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994/a of 1978-1998 were more frequent than the period of 1949-1966, which indicates that over the 20 Fig.7 Flood Times in 10 Metropolitan Areas (1949-1998) years since reform and opening to the outside world, flood in China have been increasing, and the increase of flood-times in the foregoing ten metropolitan areas in China are all the more obvious (See Figure 7 and Figure 8).