STATE STABILITY Return of the king Succession scenarios in Saudi Arabia Social protests in the Middle East and North Africa have forced Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah to return to his country after a three-month absence. Guido Steinberg examines the political manoeuvring that is already underway to clarify the succession to the 87-year-old monarch. several different programmes. pertinent following the regime changes in The aim of this package appears to be to as- Egypt and Tunisia. Although there is no major KEY POINTS KEY POINTS KEY POINTS suage any discontent and bolster support for dissident movement in Saudi Arabia agitating • The return of Saudi Arabia’s King the regime. On 5 March, the government an- for reform or a regime change, there is poten- Abdullah to his country in February after nounced that all marches and protests were tial for political instability around the royal a three-month absence demonstrated the banned, indicating the regime’s desire to main- succession, particularly at the stage when the regime’s desire to reassure the population about the stability of the kingdom. tain control through inducements and en- candidate pool begins to shift from the genera- forcement. This is especially important given tion of Ibn Saud’s sons to his grandsons. • However, political manoeuvring is the king’s prolonged absence, which revived In October 2006, Abdullah seemingly for- already underway to clarify the succession, speculation about the royal succession and the malised the procedures to be followed in the with the system of succession from brother problems that may face the House of Saud over nomination of a crown prince. According to PA/1425836 to brother increasingly coming into question the next decade. the new stipulations, the potential successor to as the Saud family ages. the king must be named by an allegiance com- Succession plans mission (Hai’at al-Bai’a), which is comprised • The most likely outcome is that Since the death of Saudi Arabia’s founder, King of the 20 surviving sons of Ibn Saud; the eldest Interior Minister Nayef will follow Crown Abdulaziz bin Saud (commonly known as sons of the brothers who are either dead, inca- Prince Sultan in the succession, although Ibn Saud), in 1953, the throne has passed in pacitated or uninterested; and one of the sons such a decision only delays the difficulty succession to his oldest surviving sons. When of the current king and his crown prince. The of transferring the kingship to the third Saud was deposed in 1964, his brother Faisal commission has 35 members in total and each generation of the Saud family. took the throne, followed by his brother Kha- member has one vote. lid when Faisal was murdered by his nephew While this might have been interpreted as This article was first available online at jir. janes.com on 17 March 2011. in 1975. Khalid was followed by Fahd, who a first step towards institutionalisation, most died in 2005 and was succeeded by Abdul- observers did not believe that the traditional lah. The current king’s designated heir is his way of succession would simply be abolished. hile the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt brother Crown Prince Sultan (born in 1925), In fact, the whole process will only come into have been ousted in recent weeks, who is both the crown prince and minister of being after the accession of Sultan, demon- W Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin defence. As succession between brothers goes strating that the commission is not seen as an Abdul-Aziz returned to his country on 23 Feb- by age, next in line is interior minister Nayef immediate forum for discussion of the succes- ruary, following a three-month absence. The (born in 1933). Sultan has spent prolonged pe- sion. Furthermore, in March 2009, Nayef was 87-year-old monarch left Saudi Arabia in No- riods out of the country for medical treatment named second deputy prime minister, a po- vember 2010 to undergo back surgery in New and his role in the daily decision-making of the sition deemed to designate him as the future York, before travelling to his palace in Morocco kingdom may therefore be declining. When crown prince because this was Sultan’s position for rehabilitation. Abdullah was out of the country and Sultan in- until the death of Fahd in 2005. The succession The timing of the king’s return was unlikely capacitated, Nayef emerged as a leading figure therefore still seems likely to be arranged out- to have been a coincidence. With major social in Riyadh. side the commission process. uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, and If Nayef is positioning himself as a candi- As the age of the candidates indicates there prolonged protests in neighbouring Bahrain date for the throne, this will have an impact on may soon be a new king every two to three and Yemen, Abdullah’s return may have been whether reform is carried out in the kingdom. years, the current mode of succession involves deemed necessary to quiet any potential Abdullah has demonstrated an understanding the risk of political instability. The overriding dissatisfaction within Saudi Arabia. Although of the need for limited reform, for example by problem that the Saud family does not seem to there have been few instances of social unrest reducing the influence of powerful religious be able to solve is how to pass on the crown to in Saudi Arabia, the regime has been quick to scholars. However, Nayef is viewed within Sau- the next generation of princes, many of whom pre-empt any possibility of contagion from the di Arabia as a conservative figure, suggesting are of an age to be considered as potential candi- regional political turmoil. On the day of his he might pursue a more rigorous policy as dates. Conflicts between different groups in the return, Abdullah announced a USD36 billion king. family have hindered reaching a solution to the social benefit package to be disbursed through Such discussions have become more problem. Disagreements over succession might 34 jir.janes.com l Jane’s Intelligence Review l April 2011 STATE STABILITY PA/1425836 In October 2006, Abdullah seemingly formalised the procedures to be followed in the nomination of a crown prince. According to the new stipulations, the potential successor to the king must be named by an allegiance commission (Hai’at al-Bai’a), which is comprised of 35 members of the ruling family. well plunge the country into political turmoil, (born 1959). Both have leading positions in the transition to the next generation. While which could in turn encourage social unrest and their fathers’ respective ministries. The pros- this uncertainty has not as yet translated into lead to regime instability, especially if these con- pects of the grandsons will therefore fluctuate instability, a publicly fractious transition proc- flicts coincide with internal or external crises. in accordance with their fathers’ fortunes; with ess could encourage greater expressions of dis- the interior ministry currently in control of sent. Political stability Riyadh’s Yemen policy, Muhammad bin Nayef The succession question is the most important currently appears to have the advantage over Social stability issue threatening political stability in the his rival. Saudi Arabian society as a whole remains ex- kingdom. Although the succession has taken These conflicts will make it difficult to reach tremely stable, although sectarian and eco- place relatively smoothly since 1964, this was an agreement between the familial factions nomic issues have the potential to increase despite fierce rivalries among the leading about how to agree on the future succes- internal tensions. One of the key factors un- princes. The basic line of conflict followed a sion. The issue is furthermore complicated derpinning social stability is the administra- rift between the so-called Sudairi brothers by the sheer number of contenders. Among tion’s use of its oil revenues to provide a good and their rivals, chief among them being the the possible successors are the sons of King standard of living and prevent dissatisfaction current king. The so-called ‘Sudairi seven’ is a Faisal: the governor of Mecca, Khalid (born with the regime. group of brothers that includes the late King in 1940), foreign minister Saud (born 1942) In Saudi Arabia’s tightly policed society, dis- Fahd, Sultan, Nayef and the powerful governor and the former head of the foreign intelligence sent is both unlikely and uncommon. Howev- of Riyadh, Salman (born 1936). service Turki (born 1945). Muhammad (born er, social concerns may pose a long-term risk Following Abdullah’s death, all three 1951), the son of King Fahd and governor of to regime stability, especially when combined candidates for the throne would be Sudairis the restive eastern province, might also be a with sectarian discrimination. The Saudi Ara- – Sultan, Nayef and Salman. As well as the candidate. Others include Muhammad bin bian political system is based on an alliance be- likelihood that kings will die at increasingly Nayef and Khalid bin Sultan as well as the tween the rulers and the Wahhabiyya, a Sunni short intervals, some of the leading princes new head of the National Guard and son of religious reform movement that is fervently have demonstrated a tendency to promote the current king, Mitab bin Abdullah (born anti-Shia. As a consequence, the kingdom’s ap- the careers of their own offspring, increasing 1953). proximately two million Shias (out of a local the likelihood of conflict even within the dif- One of the strengths of the brother-to- population of around 20 million) are subject to ferent groups of princes. Most importantly, brother succession system has been that it has socio-economic and political discrimination.