Battery Electric Bus and Facilities Analysis FINAL REPORT January 2020 Prepared for: Prepared by: Electric Bus Analysis ______________________________________________________________________________ Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 1 1 Background - MCTS Fleet, Facilities, and Service Profile .................................................................... 5 1.1 Bus Fleet and Maintenance Facilities............................................................................................ 5 1.2 Bus Routes and Service Profile...................................................................................................... 6 1.3 New BRT Route ............................................................................................................................. 6 2 Status of North American Electric Bus Industry .................................................................................. 8 2.1 Electric Buses In-service and on Order ......................................................................................... 8 2.2 Electric Bus Manufacturers ........................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Available Electric Bus Models ..................................................................................................... 11 3 Electric Bus Charging Options ............................................................................................................ 17 3.1 Depot Charging ........................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 In-route Charging ........................................................................................................................ 19 4 MCTS Operational Analysis ................................................................................................................ 21 4.1 Projected Electric Bus Energy Use .............................................................................................. 21 4.2 Depot Charging Analysis ............................................................................................................. 23 4.2.1 Range per Charge & Replacement Ratio ............................................................................. 23 4.2.2 Depot Charging Load & Electricity Cost .............................................................................. 28 4.2.3 Depot Charging Infrastructure Cost .................................................................................... 31 4.3 In-route Charging Analysis .......................................................................................................... 34 4.3.1 Required Charging Network ................................................................................................ 34 4.3.2 In-route Charging Time ....................................................................................................... 38 4.3.3 In-route Charging Electricity Cost ....................................................................................... 40 4.3.4 In-route Charging Infrastructure Cost ................................................................................. 40 5 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 44 5.1 Current Generation Buses (MY2020) .......................................................................................... 45 5.2 Future Buses ............................................................................................................................... 48 6 Emissions Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 50 7 Fleet Electrification Business Plan ..................................................................................................... 53 7.1 Pilot Program and BRT Route Business Plan ............................................................................... 53 ______________________________________________________________________________ i Electric Bus Analysis ______________________________________________________________________________ 7.1.1 Equipment and Charging Strategy ...................................................................................... 53 7.1.2 Electric Bus Pilot Program Operational Considerations ...................................................... 55 7.2 Full Fleet Transition Business Plan .............................................................................................. 56 7.3 Fleet Electrification – Operational Changes ................................................................................ 62 7.3.1 Bus Scheduling .................................................................................................................... 62 7.3.2 Bus Maintenance ................................................................................................................ 63 7.3.3 Cold Weather Operations ................................................................................................... 64 7.3.4 Charge Monitoring .............................................................................................................. 65 7.3.5 Charging Infrastructure Maintenance ................................................................................. 66 7.3.6 Contingency for Loss of Grid Power .................................................................................... 66 Figures Figure 1 MCTS Bus Routes ............................................................................................................................ 7 Figure 2 Proposed BRT Route ....................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 3 Commercially Available SAE J1772 Compatible Chargers ............................................................ 18 Figure 4 SAE J1772 Connector .................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 5 Typical In-route Charger Installation ............................................................................................ 20 Figure 6 Average High and Low Temperature, Milwaukee, WI ................................................................. 22 Figure 7 Projected Electric Bus Energy Use in MCTS Service ...................................................................... 22 Figure 8 Calculation of Reliable Range at Bus Mid-life ............................................................................. 24 Figure 9 Distribution of MCTS Daily Bus Miles ............................................................................................ 26 Figure 10 Electric Bus Replacement Ratio versus Range per Charge – Fond du Lac Garage ..................... 27 Figure 11 Projected Weekday Charging Load, MCTS Depot Charging ....................................................... 30 Figure 12 Main Components of Depot Charging Electrical Infrastructure................................................. 32 Figure 13 Ground and Overhead Mounting Options for Depot Chargers ................................................. 32 Figure 14 Conceptual Layout of Depot Chargers at Kinnickinnic Depot .................................................... 33 Figure 15 Depot Charging Conceptual Design Cost Estimates ................................................................... 33 Figure 16 Conceptual In-route Charging Network for MCTS Service Area ................................................. 36 Figure 17 Distribution of In-route Charge Times on MCTS Routes ............................................................. 38 ______________________________________________________________________________ ii Electric Bus Analysis ______________________________________________________________________________ Figure 18 Projected Average Electricity Cost for MCTS In-route Charging ................................................ 40 Figure 19 Main Components of In-route Charger ...................................................................................... 42 Figure 20 Conceptual In-route Charger Layout at Three Potential Charging Locations ............................ 42 Figure 21 Conceptual In-route Charger Cost Estimate .............................................................................. 43 Figure 22 Projected Life Cycle Costs of MY2020 Buses (2018$/mile) ........................................................ 46 Figure 23 Incremental Cost of Electric Buses versus Diesel Buses ($/mile)................................................ 46 Figure 24 Comparison of Charging Options for Different Route Types ...................................................... 47 Figure 25 Projected Life Cycle Cost for Model Year 2020 – 2050 Buses..................................................... 49 Figure 26 Cumulative Incremental Costs of Fleet Electrification – Depot Charging ................................... 59 Figure 27 Cumulative Incremental Costs of Fleet Electrification – In-route Charging................................ 59 Tables Table 1 MCTS Bus Facilities ........................................................................................................................... 5 Table 2 North American Electric Bus Manufacturers