ISMAEL, HEMIN M., Ph.D. The Geopolitical Challenge of Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Natural Gas. (2018) Directed by Dr. Corey Johnson 160 pp. Kurdistan is a semi-autonomous region of Iraq with proven reserves of 200 trillion cubic feet (5.7 trillion cubic meters) of natural gas and 45 million barrels of oil. While oil is currently being exported to world markets from Iraqi Kurdistan, providing the region with an important source of revenue, natural gas will likely be a key source of Kurdistan’s revenues in the future. It remains an open question whether that wealth will be used to promote social and economic development and good governance or whether it will become a curse that affects the region’s well-being. This research examines the internal and external dimensions of Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) natural resource geography. Internally, KRG has policies in place to develop its natural resources; therefore, this study analyzes the Kurdistan energy policy on natural gas, and the obstacles the KRG faces such as the deal and sharing of petroleum revenue which has caused issues between Kurdistan and Baghdad governments. Externally, the research examines energy relations between Kurdistan and powerful neighbors such as Turkey and Iran and also with actors in Europe that are keen to bring Kurdish gas supplies to market. Geopolitically, this research tests how Kurdistan’s location and contingent sovereignty affects its ability to develop its resource base. The dissertation employs a case study method. The analysis is based primarily on interviews with key actors in Kurdistan, including politicians from different political parties, members of Kurdistan’s parliament, Natural Resource Commission members, and representatives of international energy companies active in Kurdistan. The project also includes analysis of official statements of the political opposition’s parties, publically available data, and news reports. KEYWORDS: Kurdistan Region, Iraq, Natural Gas Policy, Geopolitics, PUK, PDK, Russia, Turkey, Iran Azerbaijan, Energy Security THE GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGE OF IRAQI - KURDISTAN’S NATURAL GAS by Hemin M. Ismael A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of The Graduate School at The University of North Carolina at Greensboro in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Greensboro 2018 Approved by __________________________ Committee Chair APPROVAL PAGE This dissertation written by Hemin M. Ismael has been approved by the following committee of the Faculty of The Graduate School at The University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Committee Chair________________________ Committee Members_________________________ _________________________ _________________________ ____________________________ Date of Acceptance by Committee _________________________ Date of Final Oral Examination ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................................v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi CHAPTER I. OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................1 1.2 The Kurdistan Region ............................................................................5 1.3 Kurds ....................................................................................................10 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................12 2.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................12 2.2 Resource Competition between KRG and Baghdad ............................12 2.3 Ethnic Tensions, Resources, and Sovereignty .....................................13 2.4 Kurdistan Region Government Natural Gas Policy .............................14 2.5 Methodological Approach ...................................................................21 2.6 Positionality and Subjectivity ..............................................................23 2.7 Data Collection Sources .......................................................................25 2.7.1 Interviews ..............................................................................26 2.7.2 Primary Source Documents ..................................................27 2.7.3 Data Analysis ........................................................................29 2.7.4 Aims and Objectives .............................................................29 III. NATURAL GAS POLICY OF KURDISTAN ....................................................31 3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................31 3.2 KRG Natural Gas Policy ......................................................................34 3.3 Natural Gas Infrastructure of Kurdistan ..............................................40 3.3.1 Electric Generation from Natural Gas ..................................44 3.3.2 Subsidies ...............................................................................46 3.3.3 Ways to Develop Natural Gas in Kurdistan ..........................47 3.4 The Importance of The Kurdistan’s Natural Gas .................................52 3.5 Kurdistan Gas Industry and Problems .................................................54 3.6 Dana Gas Company .............................................................................57 iii 3.7 Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Kurdistan Democratic Party ...........60 3.8 Baghdad and Erbil Conflict on Petroleum Revenues Sharing .............66 3.9. Interview Analysis ..............................................................................68 3.10. Summary of Issues ............................................................................69 3.11 Gas Fields and Disputed Territories (Kirkuk-Mosul) ........................70 3.11.1 Interviews Analysis .............................................................73 3.12. Iraq ....................................................................................................75 3.13 Summary ............................................................................................78 IV. GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS ................................................................80 4.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................80 4.2 The Geopolitical of Kurdistan’s Natural Gas and Actors ....................82 4.3 Russia and Turkey’s Energy Relationship with Kurdistan ..................84 4.4 Turkey ..................................................................................................90 4.5 Iran .......................................................................................................95 4.6 Europe, Turkey and Kurdistan Energy Relations ................................98 4.7 The United States’ Role .....................................................................101 4.8 Azerbaijan ..........................................................................................102 4.9 Energy Policy: Comparing Azerbaijan and KRG ..............................104 4.10 TANAP ............................................................................................112 4.11 Energy Security ................................................................................116 4.12 Security Issues .................................................................................119 4.12.1 ISIS and Militias Groups ..................................................123 4.13. Kurdistan and Geographical Limitations ........................................124 4.14 The Future of Kurdistan’s Gas Industry ..........................................128 4.14.1 Domestic Demand and Local Issues' Scenario .................128 4.14.2 Foreign Demand and External Issues' Scenario ................131 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................133 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................133 5.2 Recommendations for Kurdistan Gas Sector .....................................140 5.3 Limitations of the Dissertation...........................................................142 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................143 APPENDIX A. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................159 APPENDIX B. MAIN GAS FIELDS IN KURDISTAN REGION CURRENTLY .......160 iv LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1. Simple Example of Data Sources and Collection Methods .................................28 Table 2. Gas Fields in Kurdistan........................................................................................43 Table 3. Electricity Price in Iraq- Kurdistan by Iraq Currency..........................................47 Table 4. Potential Gas Production in Kurdistan ................................................................52 Table 5. Kurdistan Political Party’s Election Result 2013 ................................................65 Table 6. Potential Turkish Genel Energy Production .......................................................95 Table 7. Kurdistan Gas Production and Turkish Gas Need ...............................................95 Table 8. Turkey and