Inside Ukraine October 23, 2014 №34 Content The Government Policy . 1 Risk of sabotage and terrorist attacks on the eve of elections . 1 The issue of IDPs has got a legal solution . 2 Economic Situation . 4 Ukrainian credit-rating outlook is still negative . 4 Further outflow of foreign investment recorded in Ukraine . 5 Gas talks are ongoing . 6 Political competition . 8 War for the electorate of Party of the Regions . 8 An effort to discredit young democratic parties . 9 Batkivshchyna’s fight for opposition status . 10 Inside Ukraine 34 The Government Policy Elections in a number of majoritarian districts The Verkhovna Rada has finally adopted the law in Donbas may be disrupted by pro-Russian mili- on protection of the rights and freedoms of IDPs. tants. Such a development will play into the hands They have received the right to unemployment state of the Kremlin, which continues to speculate on benefits, free housing for six months, health care the idea that the Russian-speaking population of and education services at the place of actual resi- the East does not have its representatives in the dence and a simplified procedure of business regis- Parliament. In addition, there can be sabotage and tration. Such problems are burning issues for all the terrorist attacks in the cities of Donbas, which are Ukrainians. They can be resolved through abolition controlled by Ukrainian authorities, as well as in of the institute of state registration, which exists regional centers of the East and South in order to since the Soviet era, binds citizens to one place and intimidate voters and reduce turnout. It should reduces their mobility. However, due to the urgent be noted that turnout of voters in these regions is need to solve the problems of IDPs, the Parliament usually lower than in western and central regions gave preference to creating benefits for this group of the country. of people, but not reforming the whole system. Risk of sabotage and terrorist attacks on the eve of elections Russia will be trying to disrupt the democratic population of Ukraine. In addition, reduction in parliamentary elections in the Donbas districts the number of MPs will complicate the President’s controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. The task regarding parliamentary majority, as majori- Kremlin is interested in reducing the number of tarian MPs will play a leading role in creation of majoritarian districts in which elections are held. the pro-presidential faction. This will allow Russia to further speculate about Pro-Russian forces will have a minimum repre- ignoring the Russian- The Kremlin sentation in the new Parliament that does not sat- speaking population of is interested isfy Moscow. For the first time in years, commu- Donbas and the fact that in disrupting nists risk not to be in the Verkhovna Rada. Former authorities in Kyiv do elections in Donbas “regionals”, which have been a “fifth column” of the not represent the entire Kremlin for a long time, have also little chances to Inside Ukraine 34 1 The Government Policy get a mandate. The only Russia’s lever of influence ern Ukraine. No doubt that their activities are aimed in the Parliament can be some majoritarians, rep- at destabilizing the situation in Ukraine. The Security resentatives of “Strong Ukraine” and “Opposition Service of Ukraine (SBU) has intensified efforts to bloc”, although the chances to overcome the elec- neutralize such groups over the past few weeks. toral threshold are miserable for the latter. Last week extremist groups were neutralized in Parliamentary elections certainly will not be Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv. held in nine districts of Donetsk region and six dis- Their task was to organize terrorist and sabotage tricts of Luhansk region. Taking into account that acts on the day of elections. The SBU also proved Crimea and Sevastopol delegate 12 representatives the involvement of Russian citizens in organization to the Verkhovna Rada according to majoritarian of the protest held by National Guard soldiers on districts, even under the Elections will not October 13 and mass unrest near the Verkhovna most optimistic scenario, take place in 27 Rada on October 14, 2014. the future Parliament will districts for certain Another indication of potential escalation of consist only of 423 MPs. the situation in Donbas on the day of elections is Holding elections in another four districts of Russia’s attempts to coordinate diverse groups of Donetsk region is of serious concern, because militants in Luhansk region. On October 21, 2014, even without escalation of the situation, voting Mykola Kozitsyn, Oleksiy Mozgovyi and leader of process can be organized only at several polling the so-called LNR Ihor Plotnytskyi made a state- stations. It should be noted that there are 32 elec- ment on establishing a single command center. toral districts in Donbas. It should be noted that during the nominal There is a high probability of terrorist attacks truce, militants’ leaders Mykola Kozitsyn and and intimidation of election commissioners on the Pavlo Driomov announced the creation of the so- day of elections in the Donbas districts controlled called Cossack and Stakhanov People’s Republics, by Ukrainian authorities. There are a great number which were not subordinated to LNR. Clashes of pro-Russian citizens in Kramatorsk, Sloviansk between LNR militants and Oleksiy Mozhovyi’s and Artemivsk. They actively supported the sepa- units based in Alchevsk became more frequent. ratists and may be used by Russian security services Ukrainian authorities are interested in such fight- to disrupt the electoral process. ing between militants, as Militants In addition, sabotage SBU has intensified it allows Kyiv to neutral- intestine wars groups have been repeat- struggle against ize weakened and poorly are advantageous edly detected in the largest Russian subversive coordinated groups of to Ukrainian cities of southern and east- groups separatists one by one. authorities The issue of IDPs has got a legal solution The upcoming elections sped up the adoption unit of local administration on social protection is- of the law “On ensuring rights and freedoms of sues at the place of actual residence. A relevant cer- internally displaced persons”. Its consideration in tificate is issued free of charge on the submission the Verkhovna Rada has been delayed for a long day and is valid for six months. Registration of IDPs time. The law provides for additional mechanisms is carried out through the Unified State Register of of IDPs’ social security from the government. internally displaced persons. Record on registration These mechanisms will The Parliament of IDP’s residence place is put in the certificate of help these individuals to created legislative registration, and not in the passport. This is due to adapt to the new place of framework for IDPs the fact that many IDPs visit territories controlled residence. by pro-Russian separatists from time to time, and In order to obtain an IDP status, residents of such a record in the passport may become a reason Donbas and Crimea need to apply for a structural to be prosecuted by terrorists. 2 Inside Ukraine 34 The Government Policy Internally displaced persons get the right to re- not exercise the right to vote, enjoy administrative ceive social payments (pensions, unemployment and health care services, primary and secondary and disability benefits) in accordance with the laws education at the place of Problems of IDPs of Ukraine at the place of actual residence registra- residence. In addition, represent tion. They may change the place of voting with- the citizens can register the problems out changing the voting address and register legal companies at the place of all Ukrainians entities under the simplified procedure. Internal of registration, and not at migrants are provided with the possibility of free the place of actual residence. It greatly complicates temporary residence within six months from the business activity. date of registration, purpose loan for house con- Thus, problems of IDPs are a matter of na- struction (with the interest rate which cannot be tional reforms. Instead, the Parliament created higher than the NBU discount rate), transportation a number of exceptions The Parliament of movable property and facilitation of returning to only for internally dis- chose making their previous residence place. These opportunities placed persons. Such exceptions and are mainly provided by local state administrations exceptions and privileg- not implementing and local authorities. Measures on ensuring the re- es increase corruption reforms ception, travel, accommodation and resettlement risks. At the same time, of internally displaced persons are financed by the an opportune moment for the abolition of reg- state budget of Ukraine and the local budgets. With istration institute and geographic restrictions for reference to international law, the law also envis- doing business has been lost. ages that sooner or later the aggressor country will On the other hand, the issue of IDPs required compensate these costs and direct expenses of in- its urgent solution due to the upcoming winter and ternal migrants. crisis in the Ukrainian economy. The economic cri- The problems faced by internal resettlers are a sis will result in increased unemployment rate and concentrated essence of the problems faced by av- more complicated adaptation process at the new erage Ukrainians. They have clearly demonstrated place of residence. 15 thousand people out of 420 how outdated the institution of registration is. thousand IDPs have applied to the state employ- It exists since the Soviet era, though in a slightly ment centers. And only 3 thousand were assisted in modified form. Without state registration, one can- finding employment. Inside Ukraine 34 3 Economic Situation International rating agencies continue to esti- national currency require an increase in foreign mate Ukraine’s credit risks as high and Ukrainian investment.