Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics IFC Bulletin No 30 The use of surveys by central banks Proceedings of the IFC Workshops in Pune June 2007, Buenos Aires December 2007 and Vienna March 2008 July 2009 The IFC Bulletins contain proceedings of meetings of the Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics. Papers in this volume were prepared for IFC-sponsored workshops entitled “The use of surveys by central banks”, held in Pune June 2007, Buenos Aires December 2007 and Vienna March 2008. Not all papers presented at the workshop are included in this volume. The views expressed are those of the respective contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IFC, the BIS, the central banks or other institutions represented at the meeting. Individual papers (or excerpts thereof) may be reproduced or translated with the authorisation of the authors concerned. 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ISSN 1991-7279 (print) ISBN 92-9131-796-9 (print) ISSN 1991-7511 (online) ISBN 92-9197-796-9 (online) Contents Foreword by the IFC Chair Manuel Marfán..........................................................................................................................1 Overall summary Paul Van den Bergh...................................................................................................................3 Session 1: Overview of central bank data collection practices Background note on data collection techniques by central banks: trends and issues Chatwaruth Musigchai, Bank of Thailand .................................................................................7 Surveys conducted by Reserve Bank of India C.L. Agarwal, Reserve Bank of India......................................................................................13 Session 2: Surveys of consumers/households Background note on surveys of households Kerry Wood and Paul Van den Bergh, Bank for International Settlements ............................23 The 2002 wave of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF): sample description and some results Ernesto Villanueva, Bank of Spain .........................................................................................28 Results of inflation expectations survey of households S.N.S. Tyagi, Reserve Bank of India ......................................................................................36 Survey on workers’ remittances Enrique Montes, Bank of the Republic (Colombia).................................................................52 National Labor Force Survey (NLFS) Dafne Vales, Central Bank of the Dominican Republic ..........................................................58 Consumer Confidence Survey in Armenia Martin Galstyan and Vahe Movsisyan, Central Bank of Armenia ...........................................63 The distribution of financial assets in Austria: some selected results of the OeNB Survey of Household Financial Wealth 2004 Peter Mooslechner, Martin Schuerz and Karin Wagner, Austrian National Bank...................67 Session 3: Business surveys Background note on surveys of the corporate sector Tracy Chan and Paul Van den Bergh, Bank for International Settlements.............................79 Use and usefulness of business survey data – the National Bank of Belgium’s case Luc Dresse, National Bank of Belgium ...................................................................................83 The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey Thérèse Laflèche, Bank of Canada ........................................................................................88 Business surveys and company accounts: implementation and use for monetary policy Ahmet N. K p c , Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.......................................................93 IFC Bulletin No 30 iii Reserve Bank of India surveys on corporate statistics V.C. Augustine, Reserve Bank of India.................................................................................. 95 Direct Reporting System: foreign direct investments of the business sector in Israel Tsahi Frankovits, Bank of Israel........................................................................................... 100 Some remarks on business surveys in the National Bank of Poland Piotr Boguszewski, National Bank of Poland ....................................................................... 104 Session 4: Surveys for the compilation of external sector statistics Background note on surveys for the compilation of external sector statistics Paul Van den Bergh, Bank for International Settlements..................................................... 115 Surveys for the compilation of external sector statistics: the experience of Banco de Portugal Paula Casimiro, Bank of Portugal ........................................................................................ 121 New collection system in Belgium for Balance of Payments BoP 2006 – use of surveys and direct reporting for BoP Daniel Desie, National Bank of Belgium .............................................................................. 127 Surveys for compilation of external sector statistics in India Narender Singh Rawat, Reserve Bank of India ................................................................... 132 Overview on external data compilation Lui Kwee Ching, Central Bank of Malaysia.......................................................................... 138 External sector surveys Erika Chaves Ramirez, Central Bank of Costa Rica............................................................ 142 Use of surveys to compile external statistics in the Central Bank of Chile Paulina Rodríguez, Central Bank of Chile ........................................................................... 145 Challenges in data compilation of foreign direct investment in a free capital flows country – the Uruguayan case Ana María Ibarra, Luis Ipar and Mariana Taboada, Central Bank of Uruguay..................... 149 Surveys as data sources for external sector statistics Endrita Xhaferaj, Bank of Albania ........................................................................................ 152 Foreign direct investment statistics: the case of the Czech Republic Rudolf Olšovský, Czech National Bank ............................................................................... 158 Mobile phone traffic data and tourist services item in Balance of Payments Matjaž Jeran, Bank of Slovenia ........................................................................................... 162 Session 5: Surveys of monetary and financial conditions Background note on surveys of monetary and financial conditions Kerry Wood and Paul Van den Bergh, Bank for International Settlements.......................... 171 The use of a survey for the compilation of the Austrian contribution to the harmonised interest rate statistics for the euro area Alois Klein, Aurel Schubert and Gunther Swoboda, Austrian National Bank....................... 176 The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Gretchen Weinbach, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ......................... 188 Survey of ownership of deposits with scheduled commercial banks in India – evolution, methodology and issues Deepak Mathur, Reserve Bank of India ............................................................................... 192 iv IFC Bulletin No 30 Direct Investment survey in Indonesia Minot Purwahono and Siti Muarofah, Bank Indonesia..........................................................198 Monetary indicators surveys Beatriz Biasone, Central Bank of Argentina .........................................................................202 Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina Statistics of monetary and financial sector; Survey on banks’ loans by purpose Amir Hadziomeragic and Vidosav Pantic, Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina...........205 Session 6: International surveys Challenges of international surveys: plans for a Eurosystem survey on household finance and consumption Carlos Sánchez Muñoz and Panagiota Tzamourani, European Central Bank .....................209 Session 7: Surveys of economics forecasts Market Expectations Survey (REM) Central Bank of Argentina Francisco Gismondi, Central Bank of Argentina...................................................................221 Summary: “A Bayesian method of forecast averaging for models known only by their historic outputs: an application to the BCRA’s REM.” Pedro Elosegui, Francisco Lepone and George McCandless, Central Bank of Argentina...224 The Economic Expectations Survey (EES) of the Central Bank of Chile Macarena García A., Central Bank of Chile..........................................................................227 Quarterly surveys of economic expectations in Colombia Héctor Zárate, Bank of the Republic (Colombia) ..................................................................230 Annex 1: Workshop programmes .....................................................................................237 Pune, India, 27–30 June 2007..............................................................................................237 Buenos Aires, 11–13 December 2007..................................................................................240