Mid-Year 2017 Investment Review British Columbia First half 2017: BC Investment SALES Fundamental shift coming in BC investment market by dollar volume & number of sales DEALS GREATER THAN $5M as record first-half likely marks end of an era nprecedented levels of investment in ultimately lead to a pause in BC. Vendors Uthe first half of 2017, which involved 109 with elevated pricing expectations seeking transactions valued at $5.09B, will likely shortened conditional periods may experience mark the culmination of the latest and most a new reality posed by the shifts in the macro robust cycle of capital expenditures on BC economic factors that undergird how investors commercial real estate yet recorded in the traditionally behave and make investment (147) province. This ‘cycle of impatience’, which decisions. A refusal by a purchaser to meet $4.1B has its roots in 2012 and accelerated in 2015 these expectations could result in vendors before peaking in 2017, may be on the decline. deciding that they no longer wish to sell, thus Interest-rate increases in the U.S. and Canada, tightening supply, which could also slow rising bond yields, a change in government deal velocity in 2018 and beyond. With the at the federal and provincial levels, municipal rising cost of capital, purchasers will no longer red tape, new taxation regulation as well obtain the same leverage ratio when using as increased enforcement limiting capital debt financing to acquire properties; hence, $1.33B (82) outflows from China may start to slow purchasers will be required to contribute more investment activity in BC’s commercial real equity to a transaction than in years past. (149) estate market. The recent resurgence of the Canadian dollar has pushed up the cost of The largest commercial real estate deal in BC $2.67B capital for foreign investors, which has made history closed in the first half of 2017 with (117) Canadian assets less attractive from a price Cadillac Fairview selling a 50% non-managing $5.09B (109) perspective compared with the past three interest in both the Pacific Centre shopping $2.35B (119) years. A low Canadian dollar meant that mall in Downtown Vancouver along with a (99) (118) portfolio of 12 downtown office towers for $2.12B $2.12B foreign investors could pay more, contributing to further price increases. However, after $1.9B. The Ontario Pension Board and the $1.95B $1.95B years of rapid price escalation and cap rate Workplace Safety & Insurance Board each compression, the re-emergence of longer acquired a 25% stake. The largest retail deal in $968 (57) (85) $1.79B (82) periods of due diligence and more measured provincial history also closed in the first half of (60) (68) $1.48B $1.48B financial analysis may lessen the exuberance, 2017 with the $961M-sale of Oakridge Centre, a regional shopping centre in Vancouver, to $1.36B $920 (54) $ $ haste and impatience that characterized much $1.27B $1.4B (61) $1.4B $1.1B (62) of the transactional volume since 2015. QuadReal Property Group, the real estate arm of Victoria-based bcIMC. The sale of Demand for commercial real estate assets in Metrotower I & II in Burnaby to a private $889 (49) BC remains as strong as ever as the province is investor for $274M in the first half of 2017 also $715 (37) $2.765B (65) $734 (30) the fastest growing in Canada with the second marked the largest deal for a suburban office lowest unemployment rate (5.1%) as of August asset in BC history. The previous record had 2017. A lack of demand is not what will impact been the sale of the newly built Metrotower III $1.39B (60) investment activity in BC commercial real $1.03B (45) for $205M in 2015. These sales followed the first $852 (56) $879 (67) $724 (58) $724 estate. Supply remains the challenge. Increases billion-dollar commercial real estate transaction $643 (23) $594 (36) $594 $535 (38) in the Canadian interest rate environment and in BC history: the sale of the Bentall Centre the cost of capital as well as changes to federal office/retail complex in Downtown Vancouver and provincial taxation policy, combined with to Anbang Insurance Group Co. for $1.055B 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 greater enforcement of limitations on foreign in the first half of 2016. First Half Second Half Total Transactions capital, particularly from China, are what will continued on back page Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com Buyer purchases by asset & land deals first half 2017: COMMERCIAL ICI LAND SALES Buyer Purchases by Asset Type (Greater than $5 million and excluding parks and agricultural/agricultural business lands) January 1 to June 30, 2017 SITE SIZE PROPERTY LOCATION PRICE LAND USE DATE $ Millions (aCres) 246 & 248 East 1st Avenue Vancouver $7,000,000 0.22 Commercial industrial* May 2017 $3000 306 Terminal Avenue Vancouver $15,500,000 0.67 Commercial May 2017 1331-1371 McKeen Avenue; 5-99 Senator Road North Vancouver $115,021,310 27.53 Commercial May 2017 $2800 922-938 West Broadway Vancouver $11,000,000 0.14 Commercial Apr 2017 5744 Byrne Road Burnaby $12,000,000 3.81 Commercial Mar 2017 $2600 303 Vernon Drive & 318 Glen Drive Vancouver $45,000,000 1.74 Commercial Mar 2017 1223 East Pender Street Vancouver $6,100,000 0.48 Commercial industrial* Mar 2017 $2400 101 West 6th Avenue Vancouver $5,000,000 0.13 Commercial industrial* Mar 2017 1994 Springfield Road Kelowna $5,000,000 1.92 Commercial Feb 2017 $2200 32290, 32336 & 32352 Lougheed Highway Mission $6,100,000 9.03 Commercial Feb 2017 15180 32nd Avenue Surrey $5,102,000 2.03 Commercial Feb 2017 $2000 494 Railway Street Vancouver $13,800,000 0.33 Commercial industrial* Feb 2017 17395 56 Avenue Surrey $6,375,000 3.76 Commercial Feb 2017 $1800 641 Lougheed Highway Coquitlam $11,400,000 1.85 Commercial Jan 2017 450 Railway Street Vancouver $6,100,000 0.15 Commercial industrial* Jan 2017 $1600 460 Railway Street Vancouver $8,550,000 0.22 Commercial industrial* Jan 2017 1055 Vernon Drive; 1010 George Street Vancouver $16,500,000 0.80 Commercial Jan 2017 $1400 711 Alexander Street Vancouver $5,100,000 0.26 Commercial industrial* Jan 2017 *modified industrial zoning also permits higher density and additional office/showroom/flex use $1200 INDUSTRIAL ICI LAND SALES (Greater than $5 million and excluding parks and agricultural/agricultural business lands) January 1 to June 30, 2017 SITE AREA $1000 PROPERTY LOCATION PRICE LAND USE DATE (ACRES) 26090 30A Avenue Langley $8,650,000 10.00 Industrial Jun 2017 $800 32915 Mission Way Mission $5,300,000 6.69 Industrial May 2017 13577 115th Avenue Surrey $6,550,000 3.62 Industrial Apr 2017 $600 8729 Aisne Street Vancouver $5,000,000 1.00 Industrial Mar 2017 88 Golden Drive Coquitlam $7,000,000 6.82 Industrial Feb 2017 $400 19715 96th Avenue Langley $5,869,825 2.99 Industrial Jan 2017 2919, 2967 188th Street Surrey $10,000,000 20.00 Industrial Jan 2017 $200 1655 Dilworth Drive Kelowna $10,600,000 8.00 Industrial Jan 2017 10900, 11111, Lot A & Lot B Twigg Place Richmond $20,281,250 13.88 Industrial Jan 2017 $ 0 ors TOP FIVE RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES (METRO VANCOUVer) t REIT es ( By Price) January 1 to June 30, 2017 v n I ompanies e C nstitutional t I SITE SIZE SITE SIZE Government * va PROPERTY LOCATION PRICE DATE i r (Acres) (SF) P ublic P 4125-4175 West 8th Avenue (Jericho lands) Vancouver $240,000,000 19.66 856,390 Feb 2017 2223 Alpha Avenue; 4500-4530 & 4554-4584 Dawson Burnaby $155,065,000 8.12 354,056 Jun 2017 1st Half Oce Retail Industrial Street; 2350, 2410 & 2430 Willingdon Avenue; 2375 Alpha Avenue * Institutional investors include pension funds, offshore 503-609 East 2nd Street, 502-631 East 1st Street, 519- North $138,500,000 10.00 435,600 Mar 2017 interests and life insurance companies 651 East 1st Street Vancouver Note: Foreign buyers have also been active 2125 Eddington Drive (Arbutus Manor site) Vancouver $115,000,000 3.93 171,191 Mar 2017 investors. Rather than identifying them separately as foreign, Avison Young is categorizing them as 1698 West Georgia Street (Chevron site) Vancouver $72,000,000 0.37 16,379 Mar 2017 institutional or private as the case may be. 2 Partnership. Performance Mid-Year 2017 Investment Review avisonyoung.com Buyer Profile First half 2017: value of sales by first half 2017: number of Private purchasers remained the most dom- type of buyer transactions by type of vendor inant buyer group in the first half of 2017 in terms of the number of deals completed, 8% 3% 15% but for the first time since 2012 did not rep- 1% resent the majority of dollar volume. Private 3% buyers accounted for 86% of all transactions 36% 1% but only 36% of total dollar volume due to 4% the significant value of institutional trans- actions that closed in the first half. The last time private buyers were responsible for less than 50% of overall dollar volume was 2012 when they accounted for 72% of total 60% purchases, but just 38% of the $2.35B invest- ed that year. However, private capital still Private Investors 70% accounted for a number of significant deals REIT in the first half, including Metrotower I & II, Institutional investors spent $1.7B on retail Canadian bank branches primarily located Sevenoaks Shopping Centre and Columbia assets, $1.27B to acquire office product and in Vancouver by various financial institutions Square.