UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Vehicle Integration in Support of a 100% Renewable Electric Grid DISSERTATION Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Engineering with a concentration in Environmental Engineering by Kate E. Forrest Dissertation Committee: Professor Scott Samuelsen, Chair Professor Barbara Finlayson-Pitts Professor Stephen Ritchie 2019 i © 2019 Kate E. Forrest ii DEDICATION To my family for their unconditional love and support ii TABLE OF CONTENTS NOMENCLATURE ............................................................................................................................ v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................. xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................. xiv CURRICULUM VITAE ..................................................................................................................... xv ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... xix Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Goal ...................................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Objectives ............................................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 2. Background and Literature Review ........................................................................... 10 2.1 Barriers to a 100% Renewable Electric Grid ...................................................................... 10 2.1.1 Future Electric Load Demand ...................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Renewable Energy Resources ..................................................................................... 13 2.1.3 Balancing Net Load Dynamics to Meet 100% Renewables ......................................... 15 2.2 Transportation Considerations for the Deployment of Zero-Emission Vehicles ............... 23 2.2.1 Zero-Emission Vehicle Options .............................................................................. 25 2.2.2 Present and Future Vehicle Energy Demands ....................................................... 29 2.2.3 Vehicle Travel Patterns .......................................................................................... 31 2.2.4 Vehicle Deployment Strategies ............................................................................. 41 2.2.5 Vehicle-Grid Integration Impacts ................................................................................ 50 2.3 Zero-Emission Technologies for the Dynamic Support of a 100% Clean Electricity Grid .. 52 2.4 Remaining Gaps in Literature ............................................................................................ 56 Chapter 3. Approach ................................................................................................................... 61 Chapter 4. Electricity and Hydrogen Demand to Achieve Transformation of the Heavy Duty Vehicle Sector to Zero-Emission Vehicles ................................................................................... 71 4.1 Characterization of Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Vehicle Integration onto the Grid with Probable Charging and Fueling Strategies ............................................................................... 71 4.2 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Model ................................................................................................ 76 4.2.1 Model Source Data and Validation ............................................................................. 76 iii 4.2.2 Battery Electric Vehicle Charging Model .................................................................... 85 4.2.3 Hydrogen Demand Model ........................................................................................... 93 4.3 Sensitivity Analyses for Zero-Emission Vehicle Feasibility ................................................ 95 4.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis for Battery Electric Vehicle Feasibility ......................................... 95 4.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Refueling Demand ....................... 101 4.4 Chapter Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................. 106 Chapter 5. Strategies that Achieve a) a 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions and b) a 100% Clean Electric Grid with Vehicle-Grid Integration ............................................................................... 109 5.1 Strategies for Achieving an 80% Reduction in Grid GHG Emissions with Expanded Zero- Emission Heavy Duty Vehicle Deployment ............................................................................ 110 5.2 Strategies for Achieving a 100% Clean Electric Grid with Vehicle-Grid Integration ........ 115 Chapter 6. The Impact of Zero-Emission Vehicle Integration on Grid Balancing Requirements, GHG Emissions, Air Quality, and Levelized Cost of Energy ....................................................... 120 6.1 Grid Balancing Requirements .......................................................................................... 120 6.1.1 Grid Balancing Requirements for 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions ....................... 120 6.1.2 Grid Balancing Requirements for 100% Clean Electric Grid ..................................... 132 6.2 GHG Emissions ................................................................................................................. 146 6.3 Air Quality Analysis .......................................................................................................... 151 6.3.1 Air Quality Impacts of Zero Emission Vehicle Deployment ...................................... 152 6.3.2 Air Quality Impacts of a 100% Clean Electric Grid .................................................... 162 6.4 Levelized Cost of Energy .................................................................................................. 167 6.4.1 Levelized Cost of Energy for 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions Scenarios ............... 167 6.4.2 Levelized Cost of Energy for a 100% Clean Electric Grid .......................................... 170 6.5 Chapter Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................. 175 Chapter 7. Summary, Conclusions, and Future Work ............................................................... 180 7.1 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 180 7.2 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 180 7.3 Future Work ..................................................................................................................... 183 References ................................................................................................................................. 185 Appendix .................................................................................................................................... 210 iv NOMENCLATURE AC Alternating Current BenMAP Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program BESS Battery Energy Storage System BEV Battery Electric Vehicle CARB California Air Resources Board CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent CPR Current Policy Reference DC Direct Current E3 Energy + Environmental Economics, Inc. EO Executive Order EVSE Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles GGE Gallons of Gasoline Equivalent GHG Greenhouse Gas GW Gigawatt HDV Heavy Duty Vehicle LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy LDV Light Duty Vehicle MW Megawatt O3 Ozone P2G Power-to-gas PEV Plug-in Electric Vehicle PFCEV Plug-in Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle PM Particulate Matter (PM2.5 and PM10 refer to maximum particle diameter) v NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards RMSE Root mean square error SOC State-of-charge TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone V2G Vehicle-to-grid VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOCs Volatile Organic Compounds ZEV Zero-emission vehicle vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Projected GHG Emissions Reductions under California Policies ................................ 2 Figure 2. 2016 Total California GHG Emissions: 429.4 MMTCO2e as reported by the California Air Resources Board ................................................................................... 3 Figure 3. 2015 California Daily NOx Emissions: 2300 tonnes as reported by the California Air Resources Board ................................................................................................... 4 Figure 4. A Scenario for 80% Reduction in Passenger Vehicle GHG Emissions [24] .................. 6 Figure 5. Historical Trends in California per Capita Electricity Consumption (1960 to 2017). .......................................................................................................................