Frontiers of Statistics and Forecasting in Celebration of the 80th Birthday of George C. Tiao Humanities and Social Sciences Building Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan December 17~18, 2013 The Chinese Institute of Probability and Statistics Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica DGBAS, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. Welcome Dear Friends: On behalf of the organizing committee, it is my great privilege and honor to welcome you to the conference “Frontiers of Statistics and Forecasting” to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor George C. Tiao. A leading figure in statistics, George has had a great impact on many econometricians and statisticians around the world, especially in the Chinese community. It is particularly fitting to have the celebration hosted by the Academia Sinica and sponsored jointed by The Chinese Institute of Probability and Statistics, Institute of Economics, Institute of Statistical Science, and the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. Many of you took a long journey, including from Sao Paulo, London, Madrid, Illinois, New Jersey, Washington DC, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Tokyo, to join the celebration. To you, we say “thank you”. In the next two days, you will hear many of George’s innovative contributions in statistics and economics. However, the conference cannot cover all of George’s contributions. He is instrumental in the developments of statistical education and research in Taiwan, Beijing, and Hong Kong, and in the establishment of the International Chinese Statistical Association. He is also the founding chair-editor of Statistica Sinica. He has co-established both the annual NBER/NSF Time Series Conference and the Conference for Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business. We have benefited greatly from George. Please join me in expressing our sincere thanks to George. Happy Birthday George! Sincerely, Ruey S. Tsay, Chair of the Organizing Committee Organizing Committee Ruey S. Tsay Chairman, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Chun-houh Chen Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Yi-Ting Chen Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Ching-Shui Cheng Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Ray Yeutien Chou Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Jing-Shiang Hwang -Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Kamhon Kan Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Shin-Kun Peng Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Local Committee Tzu-Pu Chang Chairman, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Ci-Ren Jiang Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Jen-Che Liao Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Chang-Ching Lin Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Yin-Jing Tien Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan Tso-Jung Yen Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taiwan How people look at George C. Tiao? We thank The Institute of Mathematical Statistics for granting permission to post this article on our conference website and this program book. Organizing Committee, Frontiers of Statistics and Forecasting About George GEORGE C. TIAO EDUCATION: 1955 B.A. in Economics, National Taiwan University 1958 M.B.A. in Banking and Finance, New York University 1962 Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin (Title of thesis: Bayesian Analysis of Statistical Assumptions) HONORS: Awarded the Ford Foundation Dissertation Fellowship (1961-62); Elected Fellow of the American Statistical Association (1973); Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1974); Elected Member of Academia Sinica (1976); Elected Member of International Statistical Institute (1980); Honorary Professor, Fudan University, Shanghai (1989); Honorary Professor, Yunnan University, Kunming (1992); Distinguished Service Medal, by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taipei (1993); Julius Shiskin Award, by the Washington Statistical Society, the National Association for Business Economics, and the American Statistical Association (2001); Samuel S. Wilks Memorial Medal Award, by the American Statistical Association (2001); Honorary Professor, Peking University, Beijing (2002); Doctor Honoris Causa, Universidad Carlos III De Madrid (2003); Honorary Doctorate, National Tsing Hua University (2003); Statistician of the Year Award, by the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association (2005); 2005 Stratospheric Ozone Protection Award, member of a research “Tiger” Team given the award by the EPA (2005). PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: 1962-65 Assistant Professor of Statistics and Commerce, University of Wisconsin, Madison 1965-66 Visiting Associate Professor, Harvard Business School 1966-68 Associate Professor of Statistics and Business, University of Wisconsin, Madison 1968-81 Professor of Statistics and Business, University of Wisconsin, Madison 1970-71 Visiting Professor, University of Essex, Colchester, England 1973-75 Chairman, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin, Madison 1975-76 Visiting Chair Professor, National Taiwan University, Taipei 1980-81 Visiting Ford Foundation Professor of Statistics, University of Chicago 1981-82 Bascom Professor of Statistics and Business, University of Wisconsin, Madison 1982-97 W. Allen Wallis Professor of Statistics, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago 1987-94 Research Fellow, Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei 1996 Visiting Chair Professor, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu 1997-03 W. Allen Wallis Professor of Econometrics and Statistics, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago 2001 Distinguished Visiting Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 2002- Distinguished Research Fellow, Xian Statistical Research Institute, Xian 2003- W. Allen Wallis Professor of Econometrics and Statistics (emeritus), Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago PROFESSIONAL SERVICE: Associate Editor, Journal of the American Statistical Association (1976-81); Member, Review Board, American Statistical Association/Bureau of the Census Research Project (1978-87); Chairman, Business and Economics Section, American Statistical Association (1980-81); Member, Ad Hoc Emergency Committee, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1979-81); Senior Advisor, Bureau of Statistics, Taipei (1976-); Member, Technical Council, Air Pollution Control Association (1976-81); Member of Council, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1979-83); Member, U.S. Census Advisory Committee (1979-85); Associate Editor, Journal of Time Series Analysis (1980-88); Associate Editor, Journal of Business&Economic Statistics (1981-88); Member, NSF Panel for the Mathematical Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellowships (1983-90; Chair, 1986 and 1990); Member, Board of Academic Advisors, Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei (1982-; Chair, 1994-96); Member, Finance Committee, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1984-87); Member, Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, National Research Council (1985-88); Nominating Committee, American Statistical Association (1988-89); Member, International Committee, American Statistical Association (1990-93); Founding President, International Chinese Statistical Association (1987-88); Founding Chair Editor, Statistica Sinica (1988-93); Member, Review Board, Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation for International Exchange (1989-91; 1993-98; 2000-2002); Member, Board of Academic Advisors, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei (1991-); Advisor, Chung Hua Institution of Economic Research, Taipei (1985-); Advisor, National Statistical Bureau, Beijing (1992-); Member of Council, Academia Sinica , Taipei (1993-); Chair, Search Committee for Editor of Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (1994); Advisor, National Tsing-Hua University, Hsinchu (1994-97); Member, Advisory Committee, Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, National Health Research Institute, Taipei (1996-; Chair 1996-2001); Member, Wilks Memorial Medal Committee, American Statistical Association (1997-99); Principal Advisor, Quantitative Finance Program, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu (1997-); President, Chinese Economic Association in North America (1999); Member, Advisory Board, School of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu (1999-); Member, Advisory Board, Econometric Theory (1999-); Member, Advisory Board, University Centers for Excellence Program, Ministry of Education, Taipei (1999-); Chair, Advisory Committee, Department of Business Statistics and Econometrics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing (2001-); Chair, International Relations Committee, American Statistical Association (2003-). MEMBERSHIPS: Royal Statistical Society; Institute of Mathematical Statistics; American Statistical Association; Chinese Statistical Association, Taipei; International Statistical Institute; International Chinese Statistical Association. Books A Course in Time Series Box on Quality and Discovery, Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis with Design, Control, and Analysis Robustness Directions in Time Series Bayesian Inference The Collected Works of G.E.P. Box, Vol. I and II Schedule Dec. 16 (Mon.) Dec. 17 (Tue.) Dec. 18 (Wed.) 8:00 Registration 8:50 Opening Remarks 9:20 Plenary 1 Plenary 3 10:10 Plenary 2 Plenary 4 11:00 Photo Session / Break Break 11:20 Session 1 Session 4 12:30 Lunch