Welcome Remarks Maj Gen Jamshed Ayaz Khan (Retd) 1 Keynote Address Lt Gen Kamal Matinuddin (Retd) 4 SEMINAR PAPERS Stabilizing Afghanistan in Its Region Dr. Barnett R. Rubin 18 Afghanistan: Weak State and Regional Security Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais 35 Neutralizing Extremism and Insurgency in Afghanistan and Its Borderlands Dr Rodney W. Jones 54 Afghanistan’s Importance to Future Peace & Stability of South Asia Col Christopher Langton (Retd) 103 NATO’s Involvement in Afghanistan Crisis: Successes and Failures Col Saffet Akkaya (Retd) 118 Tribal Areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan: Interconnectivity and Spillover Effects Brig Mahmood Shah (Retd) 134 Afghanistan: Integration of Counter-insurgency, Counter-narcotic and Development Policies Marvi Memon 156 The Ideological Battle Shahzadi Beg 170 Peace and Stability, Good Governance and Development in Afghanistan Laura Schuurmans 185 Afghanistan’s Quandary: Significance of Regional States Arshi Saleem Hashmi 215 The Way Out for Afghanistan: A Chinese Scholar’s View Zhou Rong 241 Summing-up Ross Masood Husain 256 Concluding Remarks Jamshed Ayaz Khan 261 The Contributors 264 Institute of Regional Studies Seminar Papers May 2008 Afghanistan: Unabated Turmoil Collection of papers presented at an international seminar organized by the Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad on 12 May 2008. ©IRS 2008 First published in 2008 Published by Aziz-ul-Haque Secretary, Institute of Regional Studies (IRS) for the Institute of Regional Studies No.12, Street 84, Embassy Road G-6/4, Islamabad Pakistan ISBN 978-969-8020–19-4 (Hardback) Price: Rs 300 The Institute of Regional Studies is grateful to Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung for its assistance in publishing this book. Printed at PanGraphics (Pvt) Ltd, Islamabad Welcome Remarks Maj Gen Jamshed Ayaz Khan (Retd)∗ I extend very warm welcome to all of you especially the participants, some of whom have had to travel long distances to be with us today — because international travel and visa problems have become a great hassle. I trust that the participants were well received and are comfortably housed. The temperatures in Islamabad are rising and power outage is a frequent occurrence. Last year we had planned a three-day international seminar on Regional Peace and Stability: South Asia, from 31 October; but it had to be postponed for some unavoidable reasons, including the anticipated general elections. Since Afghanistan being part of West Asia has now also become part and parcel of South Asia through its SAARC membership, we intended devoting a day to discussing — The Afghanistan Cauldron — Resurgence of Taliban — Genesis and Character of Tribal Areas and the Issue of Borderland Security and its linkage with Afghanistan. — Impact of the Protracted Stay of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan. — Afghanistan: Cost for Pakistan ∗ President, Institute of Regional Studies 2 Afghanistan: Unabated Turmoil That part of the seminar we are holding today and in autumn this year, we intend holding a two-day international seminar on the rest of South Asia, thus taking up and finishing the unfinished agenda of the original three-day seminar that was postponed last year. Today, in the morning session, we have two foremost experts from the Unites States Dr. Barnett R. Rubin, who would speak on Stabilizing Afghanistan in its region; and Dr. Rodney W. Jones, his topic being The Position and Importance of Afghanistan to the Future Peace and Stability of South Asia – A Cooperative Venture. Col. Christopher Langton, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), London, who was all set to take part in the seminar last year, could not come owing to his commitments elsewhere but has emailed his paper nonetheless. Colonel Saffet Akkaya, from Turkey, would make a presentation on NATO’s Involvement in Afghanistan Crisis: Successes and Failures. In the afternoon session, we are lucky to have a leading expert on the Tribal Areas of Pakistan, Brig. Mahmood Shah, who would throw light on Tribal Areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan: Interconnectivity and Spillover Effects. A young scholar, Ms. Marvi Memon, would speak on Afghanistan: Integration of counter insurgency, counter narcotics and development policies. A well-known figure based in UK, Ms. Shadzadi Beg, would dilate on The Ideological Battle. In the final session of the day a prominent academic, Dr. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, would make a presentation on Afghanistan: Weak State and Regional Security. Ms. Laura Schuurmans, a young scholar from Indonesia, would speak on Peace and Stability, Good Governance & Development in Afghanistan. A budding scholar of the IRS, Ms. Arshi Saleem Hashmi will make a presentation on Afghanistan’s Quandary: Significance of Regional States and a Chinese scholar, Prof. Zhou Rong, will read his paper, The way out for Afghanistan: A Chinese scholar’s view. Welcome Remarks 3 Each session of the day would be followed by an open discussion in which priority would be afforded to the participants. And in the concluding session, Ross Masud Husain, the seminar rapporteur, would sum up the day’s proceedings. I would like to highlight for all of you that Dr. Rasul Bakhsh Rais raises some very pertinent questions about Afghanistan like “Why has the character of the state been such a contentious issue and why shall it remain troublesome for the present and future coalitions? Why has it been so difficult to evolve a consensus among the Afghans about the kind of a state they would like Afghanistan to be? Why have foreign powers been so much interested in determining the future of this historically isolated country? What type of a state and nation Afghanistan is likely to be in the coming decades?” And his description of Afghanistan is very apt when he says Afghanistan is on the ethnic frontiers of regional states. Afghanistan’s current situation is ringing alarm bells in the western world. The Guardian weekly commented on May 2008 “There are clear warning signs that Afghan Mission (NATO) is at a turning point”. And it added, “Afghanistan could well follow Iraq’s path”. And I must add that for Afghanistan, these words of William Faulkner stick: Past is never, it is not even past. Keynote Address The Afghanistan Cauldron — Resurgence of the Taliban Lt Gen Kamal Matinuddin (Retd) Introduction The situation in Afghanistan, appropriately called the Afghanistan Cauldron by the Institute of Regional Studies, is a matter of grave concern not only to the international community but more so to Pakistan. Pakistan is Afghanistan’s immediate neighbour. It has historical, religious, ethnic and linguistic ties with the Afghans. It has always been affected by the developments in that war- ravaged country. Whether it was in the shape of the Saur Revolution or in the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan and the US-supported Afghan Jihad or in supporting the Taliban regime against the Northern Alliance, today Pakistan is caught up in the crossfire between the remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda and the US-led forces in Afghanistan. One cannot deny the fact that neither the US and its allies nor Pakistan alone can extinguish the fires that are raging there. It is only with the cooperative effort of all those nations who have a stake in the country’s future that Resurgence of the Taliban 5 headway can be made to bring the temperatures down to manageable limits. While the objective of all is the same, namely to eliminate terrorism and religious extremism in the region, there are differences on ways of achieving it, particularly in the Tribal Areas of Pakistan. The major issues Pakistan is facing in FATA are: • Pakistan’s commitment to the War on Terror • Causes for the Resurgence of the Taliban • Reconstruction of Afghanistan • The Peace Agreements War on Terror: Pakistan’s commitment Two days after the fateful day of 9/11, US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage placed before Pakistan’s director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, Lt. Gen Mahmood Ahmed, who was on an official visit to the State Department those days, a piece of paper on which was written what Washington expected Pakistan to do in the US-led war against the Taliban regime. These were as follows: 1. Pakistan must stop al-Qaeda operators at the borders, intercept arms being supplied to them through Pakistan and end all logistic support to Osama bin Laden. 2. Give blanket overflight and landing rights to USAF planes. 3. Provide access to Pakistan naval and air bases. 4. Provide immediate intelligence information. 5. Condemn September 11 attacks. Curb all domestic expression of support for terrorism against the United States, its friends and allies. 6. Cut off all shipment of fuel to the Taliban and stop Pakistani volunteers from going into Afghanistan to join the Taliban. 6 Afghanistan: Unabated Turmoil 7. Should the evidence strongly implicate Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan and should Taliban continue to harbour him and his network, Pakistan will break diplomatic relations with the Taliban regime and end support for the Taliban and assist us (USA) in ways to destroy Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network. This is not negotiable, said Armitage. The same day at 11:30 pm (PST) US secretary of state Colin Powell rang up President Pervez Musharraf and conveyed the same demands. Musharraf is reported to have responded by saying Pakistan would support the United States in each of these seven actions. His immediate acceptance of the demands was criticized in many circles: • Giving of bases to foreign forces was resented. • Dislike for the Americans grew. • This acceptance created greater sympathy for the Taliban specially in religio-political organizations. • The U-turn made by Musharraf did not go down well amongst the tribes in the Tribal Areas. • The possibility of employing the Pakistan Army in the Tribal Areas for military operation was not at all welcome.