AFSA SCORES CONGRESS ) REMEMBERING USIA ) MORE TRIBUTES TO HUME $3.50 / OCTOBER 2004 OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L S THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING The U.S. Elections as Seen by Foreign Journalists CONTENTS October 2004 I Volume 81, No. 10 F OCUSONTHE 2 0 0 4 E LECTIONS BEJING’S PERSPECTIVE: FIRST, DO NO HARM / 37 Whether Bush or Kerry wins in November, Beijing 17 / EUROPE WILL BE DISAPPOINTED — expects little change in Sino-American relations. NO MATTER THE OUTCOME By Yunzhao Pan If Europeans had a vote in the U.S. presidential election, George W. Bush would lose by a landslide THE U.S. ELECTION — A VIEW FROM LONDON / 40 against any candidate. For Britain, the outcome in November carries profound By Matthias Rueb implications — both political and strategic. By Philip Stephens 20 / THE ARAB STREET IS WATCHING Like Americans, Arabs are divided over the choice KEEPING SCORE IN THE CONGRESSIONAL GAME / 43 between Bush and Kerry. They know the winner will AFSA profiles how your senators and representatives play a major role in reshaping the region’s future. supported American engagement in world affairs. By Salameh Nematt By Ken Nakamura 23 / IN SOUTH AFRICA, KEEN INTEREST The strong South African interest in the campaign is F EATURES largely driven by rising anti-Bush and anti-U.S. sentiment. CHALLENGING SAMUEL HUNTINGTON / 64 By Deon Lamprecht Samuel Huntington’s newest book expresses concern 26 / IN RUSSIA: THE KREMLIN VS. THE PEOPLE about the current wave of Hispanic immigration to the The Kremlin’s pick in the U.S. presidential U.S. His worries are sincere but exaggerated. election would be quite the opposite of the By John Dickson Russian people’s choice. APPRECIATION, PART II: By Dmitry Sidorov HUME ALEXANDER HORAN, 1934–2004 / 67 30 / TWO DEMOCRACIES, SHARED CHALLENGES By Susan Maitra Indonesians want a change in U.S. foreign policy because they believe this change will reverberate in domestic Indonesian politics. C OLUMNS D EPARTMENTS By Dini Djalal PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 LETTERS / 7 34 / WHAT MATTERS FOR ARGENTINA Your Union Needs You CYBERNOTES / 10 By John Limbert Despite official preferences, Argentina is BOOKS / 74 prepared to work with either candidate on the SPEAKING OUT / 13 IN MEMORY / 75 country’s priority economic issues. A Failure of Imagination INDEX TO ADVERTISERS / 82 By Beatrice A. Camp By Mara Laudonia AFSA NEWS / REFLECTIONS / 84 CENTER INSERT By Thomas R. Hutson THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS OREIGN ERVICE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published FJ O U R N A L S monthly with a combined July/August issue by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit Editor Editorial Board organization. Material appearing herein represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent STEVEN ALAN HONLEY the views of the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by Senior Editor HOLLIS SUMMERS, SUSAN B. MAITRA CHAIRMAN e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSA Members - $13 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, Associate Editor add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mail- SHAWN DORMAN ing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Service Journal, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. Ad & Circulation Manager MARK W. BOCCHETTI 20037-2990. Indexed by Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited ED MILTENBERGER STEPHEN W. BUCK manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein Business Manager PATI CHAPLIN MIKKELA V. THOMPSON does not imply the endorsement of the services or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. E- TATIANA C. GFOELLER Art Director MAIL: [email protected]. WEB: www.afsa.org. TELEPHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service CARYN SUKO SMITH CAROL A. GIACOMO Association, 2004. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., Editorial Intern WILLIAM W. JORDAN Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Printed on 50 percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. KRISTOFER LOFGREN LAURIE KASSMAN Advertising Interns BILL WANLUND VIVIAN ZHANG TED WILKINSON Cover illustration by Michael Witte OCTOBER 2004/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 3 4 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2004 PRESIDENT’S VIEWS Your Union Needs You BY JOHN LIMBERT “The treasure of Contact Us” box on p. 2 of AFSA bers. When AFSA presidents speak, love is found on no News). In addition, anyone interested they speak not on behalf of the chart,” as the old in serving on the AFSA Governing Department of State, but the men and song tells us. Board, but not ready to commit to a women of the Foreign Service. Do you care senior AFSA leadership job, may run In other words, the job offers the about the future of for one of AFSA’s 14 constituency rep- opportunity to make a difference in the the Foreign Ser- resentative positions, or the secretary lives of your colleagues and their fami- vice? Do you care or treasurer slots. lies. AFSA’s staff and officers work about the well-being of your colleagues The AFSA presidency is a full-time hard. They do so with a sense of com- and their families? Can you write position with responsibilities similar to munity, enthusiasm and conviction well? Do you enjoy the give-and-take those of an assistant secretary. that AFSA is a force for good. of sharp debate? Do you enjoy solving Although there is no explicit grade Who Can Run? Who can be individual problems? Are you a good requirement, the advocacy, negotia- AFSA president? Any member of the listener? Then I have a great job for tion, and public outreach skills are career Foreign Service who is a dues- you that even your best friend, your those demanded of a Senior Foreign paying AFSA member and who has not CDO, won’t talk about. If you are a Service employee. The AFSA presi- served in certain positions with respon- Foreign Service member transferring dent deals directly with senior officials sibility for formulating personnel poli- in 2005, AFSA has some plum jobs at State, USAID, FCS, FAS and IBB; cies within two years of taking AFSA that you will not find on any vacancy briefs members of Congress and their office. For further information on list. These jobs are those of AFSA staffers; gives on-the-record interviews these limitations, contact AFSA president and the constituency vice to national media; speaks before a General Counsel Sharon Papp at presidents. range of groups (student, professional, [email protected]. AFSA has a great professional staff business); and has frequent represen- How is the position filled? The and enjoys the support of its 13,000 tational duties. AFSA Election Committee has put out members worldwide; much of its suc- The job has a significant leadership a formal call for nominations in this cess, however, depends on members component, as well. The AFSA presi- issue of the Journal. Candidates may stepping forward to serve on its dent directs a 26-member professional run individually or in slates with candi- Governing Board. Those positions will staff, monitors annual operating expen- dates for other AFSA Governing turn over again in July 2005. Elections ditures of $3 million, oversees trust Board positions. After worldwide bal- to fill them will start with nominations funds (e.g., scholarships) exceeding $5 loting this winter, the winner will be this autumn. million, and interacts with members announced next spring. After two This column discusses the AFSA worldwide. years as an AFSA officer, I do not plan president position. For information on The AFSA president, with the to run for re-election. AFSA’s vice president jobs at State, advice of the Governing Board, sets How can you find out more? USAID, FCS and FAS, or for retirees, tone and policy for the association. Contact me at [email protected] or contact the incumbents or AFSA’s Like a chief of mission, he or she needs (202) 338-4045, ext. 502, or AFSA’s executive director (their names and e- clear goals and priorities, whether on executive director, Susan Reardon, at mail addresses are in the “How to workplace, legislative, or professional [email protected] or (202) 338-4045, matters, such as upholding the pride of ext. 505. We pledge not to reveal iden- John Limbert is the president of the our profession. The president’s first tities of potential candidates to other American Foreign Service Association. job is fighting for AFSA’s 13,000 mem- candidates or to anyone else. 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