Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR2955 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IDA-35030 IDA-46730) ON AN Public Disclosure Authorized IDA CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 31 MILLION (US$42 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND AN ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 7.6 MILLION (US$12 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO Public Disclosure Authorized MONGOLIA FOR AN ENERGY PROJECT March 28, 2014 Public Disclosure Authorized Sustainable Development Department China and Mongolia Country Management Unit East Asia and Pacific Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective September 30, 2013) Currency Unit = US Dollar US$1.00 = 1646.48 Mongolian Tugrig US$ 1.00 = SDR 1.53 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AF Additional Financing Aimag Equivalent to province BCA Benefit-cost analysis CAS Country Assistance Strategy CHP Combined Heat and Power CRETC Central Regional Electricity Transmission Company DCA Development Credit Agreement EA Energy Authority EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EMP Environmental Management Plan ENVP Economic Net Present Value EOCK Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital ERA Energy Regulatory Agency ERC Energy Regulatory Commission ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (of the Bank) FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return FNPV Financial Net Present Value GOM Government of Mongolia Ger area Poor neighborhood with traditional housing GHG Greenhouse Gas ISN Interim Strategy Note ISR Implementation Status and Results Report JSC Joint Stock Company KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MMRE Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy MOFE Ministry of Finance and Economy MOI Ministry of Infrastructure MTR Mid-Term Review NPTC National Power Transmission Company PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementing Unit SAIDI Service Average Interruption Duration Index SAIFI Service Average Interruption Frequency Index SLA Subsidiary Loan Agreement Soum Subdivisions of Aimag, equivalent to counties or districts TA Technical Assistance TTL Task Team Leader UBEDN Ulaanbaatar Electricity Distribution Company UBEDO Ulaanbaatar Electricity Distribution Office USAID United States Agency for International Development WTA Willingness-to-accept WTP Willingness-to-pay Vice President: Mr. Axel van Trotsenburg, EAP Country Director: Mr. Klaus Rohland, EACCF Sector Manager: Mr. Charles Feinstein, EASWE Project Team Leader: Mr. Peter Johansen, EASWE ICR Team Leader: Mr. Peter Johansen, EASWE MONGOLIA Energy Project CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information ....................................................................................................................... i B. Key Dates .................................................................................................................................... i C. Ratings Summary ........................................................................................................................ i D. Sector and Theme Codes ........................................................................................................... ii E. Bank Staff ................................................................................................................................... ii F. Results Framework Analysis ...................................................................................................... ii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs .....................................................................................v H. Restructuring (if any) ................................................................................................................ vi I. Disbursement Profile ................................................................................................................ vii 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design ................................................................1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes ...............................................................7 3. Assessment of Outcomes ...........................................................................................................13 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome .........................................................................22 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ......................................................................23 6. Lessons Learned ........................................................................................................................26 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners ...........................27 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing ...........................................................................................28 Annex 2. Outputs by Component ..................................................................................................29 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ..................................................................................38 Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes .............................45 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ............................................................................................47 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ...................................................................51 Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ......................................52 Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ........................................61 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents ......................................................................................62 Annex 10. Photos of Project Investments and Training Activities ................................................63 IBRD MAP No. 30588 ..................................................................................................................65 A. Basic Information Country: Mongolia Project Name: Energy Sector Project Project ID: P040907 L/C/TF Number(s): IDA-35030,IDA-46730 ICR Date: 03/28/2014 ICR Type: Core ICR MONGOLIAN Lending Instrument: SIL Borrower: GOVERNMENT Original Total XDR 23.40M Disbursed Amount: XDR 30.67M Commitment: Revised Amount: XDR 30.67M Environmental Category: B Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Energy Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 03/16/1998 Effectiveness: 07/30/2002 07/30/2002 12/31/2006 Appraisal: 11/02/1998 Restructuring(s): 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 Approval: 05/03/2001 Mid-term Review: 04/16/2012 04/16/2012 Closing: 12/31/2006 09/30/2013 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Moderately Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Moderate Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Performance: Performance: i C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments (if Indicators Rating Performance any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No Moderately Satisfactory at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any time Quality of Supervision No None (Yes/No): (QSA): DO rating before Satisfactory Closing/Inactive status: D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Central government administration 3 1 Energy efficiency in Heat and Power 49 50 Transmission and Distribution of Electricity 48 49 Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) City-wide Infrastructure and Service Delivery 33 38 Infrastructure services for private sector development 23 28 Other Private Sector Development 22 27 Regulation and competition policy 22 7 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Jemal-ud-din Kassum Country Director: Klaus Rohland Ian C. Porter Sector Manager: Mark R. Lundell Yoshihiko Sumi Project Team Leader: Peter Johansen Arturo S. Rivera ICR Team Leader: Peter Johansen ICR Primary Author: Yun Wu F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the project is to reduce system losses and improve revenue collection in electricity distribution companies in Mongolia. A central emphasis of the project is to improve the reliability and financial sustainability of electricity distribution companies, so that consumers are provided reliable, high-quality distribution services by commercially-operated distribution utilities. ii Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) (a) PDO Indicator(s) Original Target Actual Value Formally Values (from Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value Revised approval Completion or Target Values documents) Target Years Indicator 1 : System loss for UBEDN (%) Value quantitative or 30.64 10.00 18.00 14.60 Qualitative) Date achieved 12/31/2004 12/31/2009 04/16/2010 09/13/2013 Comments The target was revised as it was deemed too ambitious. At completion, the formally (incl. % revised target was overachieved by 26.9%. achievement) Indicator 2 : Receivable collection