Revolutionary Risks: Cyber Technology and Threats in the 2011 Libyan Revolution John Scott-Railton Revolutionary Risks: Cyber Technology and Threats in the 2011 Libyan Revolution John Scott-Railton Center on Irregular Warfare & Armed Groups (CIWAG) US Naval War College, Newport, RI © CIWAG 2013 [email protected] SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS CIWAG Case Study Series 2013 The Challenges and Opportunities Presented by Village Stability Operations in Afghanistan – Chris Cassimus El Salvador in the 1980s: Finding a Political Solution in a Kinetic Environment – Don Hamilton Operational Strategies to Counter IED Threat in Central Iraq – Michael Iacobucci Analysis of a Decision: How and Why the US Coast Guard Has Been Tasked with the Establishment of a New Liberian Coast Guard – Christopher LaMonica The Jemmah Islamiyah – Edward M. Lopacienski Influence Warfare: How the Joint Special Operations Task Force – Philippines Maximized Effects to Create Long-Term Stability – Edward M. Lopacienski and Thomas M. Scanzillo Countering Armed Criminal Gangs: From Tribal Militas to the Inner City – Tom Sarouf and Mike Cotone Revolutionary Risks: Cyber Technology and Threats in the 2011 Libyan Revolution – John Scott- Railton 1 SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS Message from the Editors In 2008, the Naval War College established the Center on Irregular Warfare & Armed Groups (CIWAG). CIWAG’s primary mission is twofold: first, to bring cutting-edge research on Irregular Warfare into the Joint Professional Military Educational (JPME) curricula; and second, to bring operators, practitioners, and scholars together to share their knowledge and experiences about a vast array of violent and non-violent irregular challenges. This case study is part of an ongoing effort at CIWAG that includes symposia, lectures by world-renowned academics, case studies, research papers, articles, and books. Our aim is to make these case studies part of an evolving and adaptive curriculum that fulfills the needs of students preparing to meet the challenges of the post-9/11 world. John Scott-Railton is the author of this case. A doctoral student in Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles, and a Research Fellow at the Citizen Lab, University of Toronto, John’s primary research focuses on human security implications of climate change and climate change adaptation. His secondary area of focus is applied work aimed at helping to keep the flow of information free, particularly in conflict zones, and understanding threats to secure communications. John’s ability to connect people and information communication technology is an example of how we learn to outmaneuver those who attempt to control the flow of information. This has direct application to emerging concepts of cyber control and cyber denial (disputed cyber control) in contemporary conflict. John’s initial foray into conflict in North Africa came via Egypt, as Mubarak’s regime shut down the Internet to keep the world from seeing events in Tahrir Square and other areas. Initially, John and several friends outside Egypt called into the country to find out what was happening. John then instructed an increasing circle of friends and contacts inside Egypt to call his cell phone; the calls were recorded and the content was then either tweeted or posted on other forms of social media. Realizing that faster and more accessible connectivity was needed, John formed @jan25voices, a network of associates whose information eventually reached millions of people. John and @jan25voices provided grassroot support that gave a voice to the people on the street. They were able to skillfully use connectivity and content to outmaneuver government forces to ensure 2 SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS the flow of information out of the country, past the Internet shutdown. The audio, video images, and other content coming from inside Egypt had an emotive effect on those who saw it. European and global audiences supported the opposition with money, connectivity, content, and ingenuity. Revolutionary Risks: Cyber Technology and Threats in the 2011 Libyan Revolution is the story of how John and his colleagues adapted existing information communication technology to help the Libyan opposition counter the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya government’s control of communications. The case study is built from experience and contacts, stemming from @feb17voices, an evolution of @jan25voices, and supplemented with after-the-fact conversations and open-source research. This group of tech-savvy innovators have provided a wealth of knowledge on how information content and code (software) are used in contemporary conflicts. Their successful dispute of the government control of communications led to freedom of action in the cyber and land domains. This freedom of action led to traditional military support from the U.S. and NATO that ultimately allowed the opposition to achieve the physical objectives of defeating the Gaddafi regime and the eventual election of a new government. John Scott-Railton has innovated in both the theory and practice of work aimed at helping to keep the flow of information free, particularly in conflict zones. While this case tells how cyber technology was used in support of the ouster of the world’s longest reigning dictator, it is deliberately not written with a military lexicon. This decision was made because if and when military actors and leaders engage in this type of conflict, the civilian actors will not use our terms—we will need to use and understand theirs. It is important to note that due to the complexity of human nature and interaction in Egypt, across North Africa, and the Levant, this chapter of their history has yet to be completed. John agreed to write this case because he had observed similarities between Syria and Libya, and specifically felt that there was a strong risk that the Syrian regime would add malware and hacking to their electronic operations. This fear came to pass long before this case study was published. It is John’s hope that Revolutionary Risks: Cyber Technology and Threats in the 2011 Libyan Revolution will be a useful historical study. It is also important to note three critical caveats to this case study. First, the opinions found in this case study are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense, the Naval War College, or CIWAG. Second, while every effort has been made to correct any factual errors in this work, the author is ultimately responsible for the content of this case study. Third, 3 SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS the study questions presented in all CIWAG case studies are written to provoke discussion on a wide variety of topics including strategic, operational, and tactical matters as well as ethical and moral questions confronted by operators in the battlefield. The point is to make these case studies part of an evolving and adaptive curriculum that fulfills the needs of students preparing to meet the challenges of the post-9/11 world and to show them the dilemmas that real people faced in high-pressure situations. Finally, in addition to a range of teaching questions that are intended to serve as the foundation for classroom discussion, students conducting research on the use of information communication technology, social media, and cyber control in contemporary conflict will probably find the bibliography at the end of the case helpful. Compiled by the case study author, the bibliography is a selection of the best resources and articles on a range of related topics. We hope you find it useful and look forward to hearing your feedback on the cases and suggestions for how you can contribute to the Center on Irregular Warfare & Armed Group’s mission here at the Naval War College. 4 SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS Author Biography John Scott-Railton has conducted applied work to support the free and open flow of information during Internet shutdowns in Egypt and Libya and researches threats to secure connectivity in similar contexts, including Syria. His doctoral work focuses on the human security implications of climate change and failures of climate change adaptation. He is a doctoral student in the Department of Urban Planning, School of Public Affairs, UCLA and a Research Fellow at the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto. 5 SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS Suggested citation: Scott-Railton, John. 2013. Revolutionary Risks: Cyber Technology and Threats in the 2011 Libyan Revolution. CIWAG case study series 2013, ed. Richard Crowell, Marc Genest, and Andrea Dew. Newport, RI: US Naval War College, Center on Irregular Warfare and Armed Groups. 6 SCOTT-RAILTON REVOLUTIONARY RISKS Table of Contents CIWAG Case Study Series 2013 ................................................................................................................................1 Message from the Editors ........................................................................................................................................2 Author Biography .....................................................................................................................................................5 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Common Terms ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 Common Abbreviations