WORLD’S TOP ANALYSTS FINANCIAL TIMES SPECIAL REPORT | Friday May 14 2010 www.ft.com/top­analysts­2010 | twitter.com/ftreports Things are looking up: traders at the New York Stock Exchange earlier this week, as stocks surged in response to a €750bn package to tackle the eurozone’s debt problems Getty Taking stock in tough times Leading equity analysts in their third year, recognise the – how accurate their forecasts of Unlike some rankings of ana- similar story, with the Eurofirst achievements of analysts who company earnings announce- lysts, which judge the brokers on 300 index ending up more than 25 across the world can pat were best in their sectors around ments have been, compared with subjective criteria, such as fund per cent on the year, bouncing themselves on the back the world in the calendar year those of their peers. managers’ perceptions of their back from nadirs reached in 2009. The awards for US winners There are also awards in each value, the StarMine figures are March. after a challenging year, were presented at a dinner held region for the top overall stock derived from an objective compu- It was a year, therefore, in writes Martin Dickson last night at the New York Stock pickers and earnings estimators, tation of precisely how well indi- which getting macro-economic Exchange. irrespective of their sectors. viduals have performed relative to assumptions right may have been t is particularly hard to be StarMine, part of Thomson Reu- The awards are rounded out industry benchmarks. almost as important as detailed successful as an equity ana- ters, is a research analytics com- with prizes for the top broking So what trends emerge from the analysis of the merits and weak- lyst in times of grave eco- pany that has pioneered the quan- houses in each region, ranked by 2010 awards? The first is the sheer nesses of individual companies. nomic, political and financial titative measurement of research the number of individual awards difficulty of picking winning and For example, a belief that China Iuncertainty, such as the world performance and employs a meth- each firm has racked up. losing stocks when the environ- was going to ride out the eco- has witnessed over the past year odology respected and widely There are separate awards for ment in which industries are nomic storm relatively well will or two. used by investment banks and the “most productive” broking operating was so volatile, and so have helped propel some metals So the individual stock pickers fund managers. houses. This category, introduced subject to political decisions by and mining analysts up the and earnings estimators – and the The awards cover three regions in 2009, is meant to allow some governments intervening in mar- tables. broking houses – that have – the US, Europe and Asia – and smaller boutiques or regional bro- kets in a manner unprecedented In a year of such extreme vola- emerged on top in the 2010 FT/ are given to individual analysts in king houses, which do not have as in recent times. tility, analysts who had strong StarMine Awards for the world’s two categories: “stock picking” – many analysts as their big coun- In the US, for example, the S&P sell recommendations on some leading analysts have particular how their “buy” and “sell” recom- terparts, to compete more equally. 500 index, which had fallen 39 per stocks, as well as buy recommen- reason to congratulate them- mendations on particular compa- It divides the number of awards cent in 2008, rose 24 per cent in dations on others, are likely to selves. nies have performed relative to that each firm has won by the 2009, ending 65 per cent above its The FT/StarMine Awards, now others; and “earnings estimation” number of analysts it employs. March low. In Europe it was a Continued on Page 3 2 FINANCIAL TIMES FRIDAY MAY 14 2010 FINANCIAL TIMES FRIDAY MAY 14 2010 3 World’s Top Analysts World’s Top Analysts In This Issue Top 10 Stock Pickers – Asia Rank Analyst Broker Industry Primary Coverage Industries Taking Excess In­depth Return (%) stock in 1 Lai, Bertram CIMB Securities 31.6 Machinery & Materials; Telecommunications; Computers & Communications Equipment 2 Pow, David UBS 28.1 Utilities 3 Yuan, Jason UOB Kay Hian 21.8 Consumer Goods & Services; Food, Household tough knowledge & Personal Products 4 Santoso, Ben DBS Vickers 19.9 Food, Household & Personal Products 5 Cleary, Matt Deutsche Bank 18.1 Semiconductors; Electronic Equipment times Securities Volatility and debt pose stiff test 6 Chua, Julian1 Citi Investment 16.6 Banks; Financial Services; Media EUROPE A highly volatile period of huge Research Continued from Page 1 economic and financial uncertainty made helps pick 7 Ramachandran, Anand Citi Investment 16.37 Telecommunications have done well. For exam- analyst stock picks particularly tough, Research 8 Qiu, Helena and Tsang, SBI E2-Capital 16.36 Healthcare ple, Gabe Moreen of Bank of writes Robert Budden Pages 4­5 Kennedy Securities America Merrill Lynch, the 9 Lin, Ben2 Nomura 15.6 Insurance year’s top US stock picker, 10 Li, Victoria Credit Suisse 14.9 Machinery & Materials had buy recommendations Taking a ‘bearish winners on several high performing contrarian view’ energy companies, but also sell calls on a significant PROFILE Roberta Ciaccia Top 10 Earnings Estimators – Asia number. of Exane BNP Paribas Asia ASIA KEY POINTS Rank Analyst Broker Primary Coverage Industries In Europe, Roberta Ciac- aims to ‘think out of cia, of Exane BNP Paribas, Analysts went the ● 1,070 stock pickers and 1 Yun, Seok Credit Suisse Insurance second in the regional the box to examine 2 Esson, Christopher Credit Suisse Banks; Insurance things that may not be extra mile to spot 1,099 estimators qualified in stock-picking rankings, had at least one awards category 3 Hong, Sung Su NH Investment & Securities Consumer Goods & Services bearish calls on lottery obvious at first sight’. big trends, writes by covering a sufficient 4 Perera, Chehan KAF Seagroatt & Campbell Banks operators in Greece and Pages 4­5 Robin Kwong number of stocks. 5 Lau, Pierre Citi Investment Research Utilities; Machinery & Materials Italy, correctly predicting ● Stock pickers on average 6 Park, Ally Citi Investment Research Consumer Goods & Services; Food, Household & that cash-strapped govern- underperformed their Personal Products ments would see them as ast year was one of industry benchmarks by 7 Yoon, Sarah Woori Consumer Goods & Services; Food, Household & fat revenue-raising targets. sharp changes for 0.19 per cent. Personal Products; Machinery & Materials; Media Top-down attitudes by Asian stock mar- ● Stock pickers added the 8 Kong, Robert Citi Investment Research Banks; Transportation broking house manage- kets. While overall most value in the 9 Sim, Wei Macquarie Research Equities Transportation ments may also have played Lthey enjoyed their best year Construction and a role in the results. For 10 Lee, Jae-won Tong Yang Securities Machinery & Materials; Utilities since 2003 on the back of Engineering industry with an example, Bank of America 1Now at Nomura. 2Now at Morgan Stanley the global economic recov- Industry Excess Return of Source: StarMine, a Thomson Reuters company Merrill Lynch, which has ery, the first few months of 5.2 per cent. an unusually high ratio of the year were marked by a ● 83 brokers had at least “underperform” calls on sharp fall in stock prices, as one analyst who qualified for stocks, did very well in the Steering through peaks and troughs anxiety over the extent of a stock­picking award. Asia’s top stock picker Bertram Lai of CIMB Securities stock-picking category in US In volatile markets, spotting potential the US financial crisis ● The Asia awards covered 2010, coming first in the fallers as well as risers – and taking leaps of gripped investors. the following countries: Bertram Lai, the top stock picker for Asia in in value and outperformed industry peers by overall tables in all three For the region’s best ana- China, Hong Kong, South this year’s FT/StarMine Awards, made what 1,174 per cent. regions, albeit tied in faith, too – are the keys to success for lysts, picking the winners Korea, Malaysia, Singapore he called a “pretty bloody­minded” decision Mr Lai was the only analyst covering Europe and Asia. analysts, writes Masa Serdarevic Pages 6­7 and losers during this roll- and Taiwan back in 2005. Skyworth as it rebounded to become one of William Herkelrath, sell- er-coaster ride required in- Mr Lai, head of Hong Kong and China China’s top TV brands. Now, there are 10 side specialist at Thomson depth knowledge of the research for CIMB Securities, had been analysts covering the company, according to Reuters, notes that “glo- Analyst of the year management strategy of the covering a little known Chinese TV maker Bloomberg. bally, 23 per cent of BofA Richard Repetto companies they covered HK$0.59 to HK$7.98 and out- with five, and Credit Suisse China Gas and Xinao Gas – or ‘risk aversion’,” says Mr It’s a topsy­turvy world: called Skyworth Digital Holdings. Skyworth Mr Lai says the level of access and Merrill Lynch’s universe is and figuring out how myr- performed its industry came second with three as both more than doubled Lin, who now heads Mor- a roller­coaster at the was doing well – until Hong Kong’s anti­ understanding he had from covering the currently set to ‘underper- Getting the big picture right, iad factors – from changing peers by a remarkable 1,174 gongs. After last year’s Asia their share prices – helped gan Stanley’s Asia insur- Universal Studios theme corruption agency prosecuted Huang stock for five years was crucial to being able form’, which is striking in experience of previous macroeconomic conditions per cent while he kept a awards were dominated by propel him to the number ance research team.