VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITETY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Jino Bulia NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FACTOR BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN. THE VITAL NECESSITY OF POSSESSION NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR RIVALRIES Master Thesis Diplomacy and International Relations, State Code 621L20004 Political Science Study Field Supervisor __prof. dr Arunas Molis_______________________ (Researcg Desgree, Name, Surname) Defended prof. dr. Šarūnas Liekis_____________________ Kaunas, 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS......................................................................................................2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS..............................................................................................3 ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................................4 SANTRAUKA......................................................................................................................5 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................6 1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK...................................................................................10 1.1 Neo Realism Approach In International Relations........................................................10 1.2 Nuclear Approach From The Prism of Neo-Realism.....................................................15 2. MAIN FACTORS WHICH LED TO ACQUISTION OF NUCLEAR WEAPON........20 2.1 Historical Roots Of Conflict..........................................................................................20 2.2 India's Strives And Reasons Regarding Nuclear Weapon.............................................20 2.3 Pakistan's Strives And Reasons Regarding Nuclear Weapon........................................23 3. ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS...........25 3.1 India's Nuclear Capability and Delivery Systems......................................................... 25 3.2 Pakistan's Nuclear Capability and Delivery Systems.....................................................27 4. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE APPROACH.....................................................................30 4.1 India's Nuclear Doctrine.................................................................................................33 4.2 Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine....................................................................................... ....34 5. STABILITY INSTABILITY PARADOX THROUGH NUCLEAR DETERRENCE..36 5.1 Kargil War 1999........................................................................................................37 5.2 Terrorist Act On Indian Parliament on December 2001......................................... .39 5.3 The 2008 Mumbai Terrorist Act................................................................................42 5.4 Conclusion.................................................................................................................45 6. POSSIBLE GROUNDS AND SCENARIO FOR FURTHER ESCALATION.............47 6.1 Possible Causes Able To Lead Nuclear Deterrence.......................................................47 6.2 Possible Scenario Of Using Nuclear Weapon................................................................50 CONLUSION......................................................................................................................52 REFERENCES....................................................................................................................57 2 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CBW - Chemical and Biological Weapon CIA - Central Intelligence Agency DND - Draft Nuclear Doctrine EU - European Union ISI - Section Intelligence Service JeM - Jaish-e-Mohammed LeT - Lashkar -e- Taiba LoC - Line of Control MAD - Mutual Assured Destruction NSAB - National Security Advisory Board ICBM - InterContinental Ballistic Missile 3 ABSTRACT Nowadays nuclear deterrence became one of the main and actual question for debates among politicians, experts of security fields, world's decision makers or even for ordinary people in the universe. As well everyone knows and remembers that devastating and horrific power of the nuclear weapon and inexpressible tragedy over Japan in 1945, which in reality depicted the genuine face of a newly invented weapon for that time. After that everyone came to the idea that using nuclear weapon demands more wisdom and the most attentive attitude towards it. From the first days of independence of India and Pakistan, the peace between the two countries in South East Asia become desirable. The territorial and religion misunderstanding led the countries to endless struggle, clash and mutual confrontation, which finally appeared in the three wars including one bloody conflict between the countries. The development of high technological environment moved the rivalries to the next level which was maintained by the implementation of a nuclear weapon, which forced the states to conduct more strain relations, which overall is still hindering to peaceful management of existing conflict. Therefore, this research paper will take different approaches to the Indian - Pakistan nuclear deterrence policy and will investigate the main factors, whether the nuclear deterrence is able to maintain peacekeeping or on the contrary complicate the further development of their relations. 4 SANTRAUKA Šiais laikais branduolinis atgrasymas tapo vienu iš pagrindinių debatų klausimų tarp politikų, saugumo ekspertų, sprendimų priėmėjų ir net eilinių žmonių pasaulyje. Visi žino ir prisimena niokojančią ir baisią branduolinio ginklo galią ir didelę tragediją Japonije 1945 m., kuri parodė tikrąjį naujai išrasto ginklo veidą. Po to visi suprato, kad branduolinio ginklo panaudojimas reikalauja daugiau išminties ir itin dėmesingo požiūrio į jį. Nuo pat pirmų Indijos ir Pakistano nepriklausomybės dienų taika tarp šių šalių Pietų Azijoje tapo siektina. Teritoriniai ir religiniai nesusipratimai tarp šalių nuvedė prie nesibaigiančios kovos, tarpusavio konfrontacijos, kuri galiausiai virto į tris karus, tarp jų vieną – kruviną. Aukštųjų technologijų aplinkos vystymasis perkėlė priešininkes į naują lygmenį, kuris buvo palaikomas branduoliniais ginklais ir kuris lėmė tai, kad įtampa tarp šalių dar labiau išaugo it tai vis dar trukdo taikiam konflikto sureguliavimui. Todėl šame tiriamajame darbe yra skirtingos prieigos prie Indijos – Paksitano branduolinio atgrasymo politikos ir jis tiria pagrindinius faktorius, ar branduolinis atgrasymas yra pajėgus išlaikyti taiką, ar priešingai – dar labiau komplikuoja tarpusavio santykių vystymąsi. 5 INTRODUCTION The relevancy of the topic: From the day of its creation, a nuclear weapon was a subject of wide-scale consideration, which raised a lot of questions, namely whether it could be the strongest weapon in the world and would it play the significant role in the maintaining of peace seeking and peacekeeping. The response on the first question was clearly given by the devastating power of nuclear weapon in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945 that killed about 130,000 thousand lives. But regarding the second question, whether did it play the role of peacekeeping, has quite ambiguity approach, which can be seen from the example of India and Pakistan, who have had a life-threatening struggle since Independence, but what make this conflict more dangerous is the fact, that both of them belongs to nuclear states which make the situation tenser. During the entire history of India - Pakistan relations there was three main wars and one bloody conflict between them. Particularly noteworthy the fourth, Kargil conflict, which caused so severe escalation of the situation that the countries were near to nuclear war, which could harm not only solely for certain states and South East Asia region, but it could involve even the entire world in it. The acute relations between India and Pakistan have begun from 1947 when both of them were under the Great Britain domain when it was called British India. After The Indian Independence Act in 1947 by Parliament of Great Britain both the countries acquired the independence and divide into two new independent states, namely India and Pakistan. But during the dividing of territory, the countries face difficulties regarding the division of Kashmir region which is populated both with Muslims and with Indian Hindu and both the countries claim the pretense on this region. In order to rejoin the region, there were three main wars between the countries for Kashmir region in 1947, 1965 and as already mentioned Kargil crisis in 1999, besides there was another war in 1971 which finally caused Pakistan's division in two sides and the independence of the new state Bangladesh. Almost all the wars between the countries were finished in the favor of India, which was deriving with the several factors and among them the conventional imbalance between the countries which finally forced Pakistan to the acquisition of the nuclear weapons, but before Pakistan come to nuclear weapon, India had already been stepped into nuclear which was deriving not only by Pakistan but also by another giant of the Asia Region against whom India had territorial dispute which ended with India's defeating, which was kind of signal for India to maintain its nuclear weapon. At the end of XX century specifically in 6 1998 both India and Pakistan publicly announced themselves as the nuclear states which overall led the countries in endless fear of nuclear