Cumbria Housing Strategy 2010/15 Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2011 Workington & Maryport Housing Market Area April 2011 Cumbria Sub-regional Housing Group Based on Ordnance Survey map material with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationary Office. Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Cumbria County Council. Licence No LA076546. 2006. Table of Contents Introduction to the Strategic Housing Market Assessment .......................1 1. Current Market Profile ...............................................................................2 Composition of Workington and Maryport Housing Market Area ..............2 Headline Findings.....................................................................................2 Key Issues ................................................................................................2 2. The Current Housing Market.....................................................................5 Stage 1: The demographic and economic context..................................5 1.1 Demography and household types ................................................5 1.2 Economic Context..........................................................................7 1.3 Employment levels and structure .................................................22 1.4 Incomes and earnings..................................................................35 Stage 2: The housing stock.....................................................................37 2.1 The dwelling profile ......................................................................37 2.2 Stock condition.............................................................................39 2.3 Shared housing & communal establishments ..............................39 Stage 3: The active market ......................................................................40 3.1- 3.2 The cost of buying or renting property and affordability ........40 3.3 Overcrowding and under-occupation ...........................................48 3.4 Vacancies, available supply and turnover by tenure ....................48 3.5 Vacant Dwellings and Second Homes .........................................49 3.6 Affordable Housing supply ...........................................................50 Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together................................................51 4.1 Market characteristics ..................................................................51 4.2 Trends and drivers .......................................................................51 4.3 Issues of future policy / strategy...................................................52 3. The Future Housing Market.....................................................................54 Stage 1: Projecting changes in future numbers of households...............54 Stage 2: Future Economic Performance in West Cumbria .....................59 Stage 3: Future affordability....................................................................71 Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together.................................................74 4. Housing Need (affordable housing) .......................................................76 Stage 1: Current Housing Need..............................................................76 Stage 2: Future housing need based on Annualised Dwelling Requirements .........................................................................................78 Stage 3: Housing requirements of households in need ..........................83 Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together.................................................84 5. Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups........................85 Supported Housing.................................................................................85 Older People...........................................................................................87 Gypsies and Travellers ...........................................................................88 Homelessness in Workington & Maryport HMA......................................89 6. Report Conclusions – bringing the evidence together.........................91 7. Monitoring and updating the assessment .............................................94 Bibliography............................................................................................95 Appendix One: SHMA Methodology .......................................................96 Appendix 2 Key Economic Scenario Assumptions ...............................105 Appendix 3: Draft Local Housing Market Indicators ..............................108 Appendix 4: Definition and types of affordable housing.......................110 Tables Table 1: Age Range.........................................................................................5 Table 2: Household Type.................................................................................5 Table 3: Ethnic Group......................................................................................6 Table 4: Headline GVA 2007 and Change over Time....................................19 Table 5: GVA per Head of Population, 2007 and Change over Time.............20 Table 6: Economic Activity 2001....................................................................23 Table 7: Economic Activity 2007....................................................................23 Table 8: JSA Claimants .................................................................................24 Table 9: JSA Claimants over 3 years.............................................................24 Table 10: Claimant to Vacancy Ratio.............................................................25 Table 11: Employment by Occupation Jan-Dec 2009....................................26 Table 12: Sellafield workers resident in Allerdale...........................................27 Table 13: Industry of Employment .................................................................29 Table 14: Industry of Employment .................................................................30 Table 15: Live unfilled vacancies by occupation ............................................31 Table 16: Live unfilled vacancies by industry.................................................31 Table 17: National Insurance Registrations ...................................................33 Table 18: Migrant Employment by Industry per District..................................34 Table 19: Median and Lower Quartile Incomes..............................................35 Table 20: Tenure............................................................................................37 Table 21: Property Type ................................................................................38 Table 22: House Size.....................................................................................38 Table 23: Private sector Decent Homes 2008 ...............................................39 Table 24: Social Rented Decent Homes 2010 ...............................................39 Table 25: House price / Household income 2010 ..........................................40 Table 26: House Price Increases 2005-2010.................................................41 Table 27: Accessibility of Social Rented Stock ..............................................46 Table 28: RSL and Open Market Rents.........................................................47 Table 29: Occupancy Rates...........................................................................48 Table 30: Access to Social Rented Housing ..................................................49 Table 31: Number of properties empty for more than six months ..................50 Table 32: Number of Second Homes.............................................................50 Table 33: Permissions and Completions (Market led and affordable housing) .......................................................................................................................50 Table 34: Zero net migration scenario ...........................................................55 Table 35: 5 Year migration scenario ..............................................................55 Table 36: 10 Year migration scenario ............................................................56 Table 37: 10 year dwelling led .......................................................................56 Table 38: Dwelling led based on RSS............................................................57 Table 39: District Age range changes 2008 – 2031 .......................................58 Table 40: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario Employment Growth, 2006-2016 ........................................................................................62 Table 41: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario GVA Growth, 2006-2016......................................................................................................63 Table 42: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario Employment Growth, 2006-2016 ........................................................................................66 Table 43: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario GVA Growth, 2006-2016......................................................................................................66 Table 44: Scenario 1: Labour Force Led, No Change....................................69 Table 45: Scenario 2: Labour Force Led, Experian Baseline.........................69 Table