Afar The impact of local conflict on regional stability Tadesse Berhe and Yonas Adaye Introduction officials, young people, and women. Regarding the Eritrean side of Afar, the focus group discussions Violent conflict is more the norm than the exception included leadership members of the Red Sea Afar in the Horn of Africa. Conflicts are waged at various Democratic Organization (RSADO), Eritrea Afar levels: state, regional, and local. Conflict involves refugees in Ethiopia, and elders of different clans. various actors: governments, nationalist groups, From the Djibouti side, one higher official and religious groups, and community or identity groups another former member of FRUD participated in with significant backing from external forces. It is a in-depth interviews.2 Document analysis and field common for conflicts in the sub-region to promptly observation were used to the primary data obtained acquire a sub-regional dimension, thus transcending from the field. national borders by attracting kinsmen from across the border. The result is Analysis of the conflict is based on often a flow of refugees, who destabilise the DFID conflict analysis model economic and trade relations between Conflicts in (Strategic Conflict Assessment) as stated neighbouring states, and pose a security in the Centre for Policy Research and threat to the sub-region.1 the sub-region Dialogue’s (CPRD) term of reference. acquire sub- The report has four sections. Section The purpose of this study is to identify regional one provides historical background, the the origins, patterns, proximate causes, context of the conflict and its effect and key determinants of local level dimensions that on sub-regional stability. Section two conflicts in the Afar Regional State that transcend national analyses underlying causes, actors, and affect sub-regional stability. It describes the dynamics of the conflict. Section and analyses the context and the major boundaries three deals with responses to the actors in the conflict process in order conflict, and the final section provides to understand the underlying causes of conclusions and recommendations. the internal conflicts, and assesses their linkage with, and impact on, sub-regional stability. Background to conflict in the Afar region More specifically, this study strives to identify and analyse conflicts in the Afar region that have the Physical and demographic overview potential to draw in neighbouring states: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. Based on the findings, the study The Afar are one of the large pastoral groups in the proposes mechanisms of conflict prevention and Horn of Africa. Their settlement distribution covers the management in the IGAD region. borders of the three countries of the Horn: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. There are about two million Afar, Analyses of local level conflicts necessitate field more than two-thirds of whom live in Ethiopia.3 They level research, particularly primary data. To this end, are almost entirely Muslim. Their native language is in-depth interviews and focus group discussions Afaraf, which is of Cushitic origin. Though the Afar were held with more than 50 knowledgeable and are divided by the borders of the three countries, they well-informed participants from zones one, two and maintain close physical contact, strong sentiments of three in the Afar Regional State over a period of kinship, and an inclusive Afar identity. two weeks. They were selected on the basis of their resourcefulness and participants included elders, In Ethiopia, the Afar Region is organised as one clan leaders, political party members, administration of the nine autonomous Regional States. The Afar Researching local conflicts and regional security Page 1 National Regional State (ANRS) is located in the The clan, a group of extended families, is the most great East African Rift Valley in the north-eastern important political and social unit in the Afar culture. part of the country. It borders Eritrea to the north- Traditionally, the clan as a social organisation serves east, Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Somali Regional as a nucleus for administration and co-operation to States to the north-west; south-west; south, and conduct social activities among clan members. Clan south-east respectively, and the Republic of Djibouti kinship is very strong. Issues that affect members of a to the east. Most of the region is dry and rocky, clan are discussed and decided collectively under the unsuitable for cultivation. Out of the total area of the guidance and leadership of clan leaders. In times of region (estimated at 97,250km2) cultivated and arable great difficulties (e.g. times of drought, when a family is land constitutes 5.24%, forest 1.54%, bush and endangered by external attack, etc) individual families shrub 18.62%, grassland 1.56%, marshy land 2.74%, seek and gain support from their clan kinsmen. There water bodies 0.63%, and degraded and rocky land are large and small clans. The large ones are Arebta, 63.7%, (ANRS Capacity Building Bureau, 2003:2). Damoita, Dahimela, Hadarmo (Able), Hadu, Seka, The region’s altitude ranges from a maximum of Maeyto, and Baleessewa. Members of most of the 1500m above sea level to a minimum of 166m below aforementioned clans are found in all three countries sea level. Temperature varies from 25ºC during the of the Horn. For instance, the Hadarmo clan is mostly wet season to 48ºC during the dry season. Rainfall found in Eritrea, in zones 2 and 4 of the Afar Regional is erratic and scarce, and annual precipitation ranges State, and in Djibouti. Members of Dahimela and from 200mm to 600mm. The region is frequently Hadu clans are mostly found in zone 2 of the Afar exposed to persistent droughts and is classified as one Region, Djibouti, and Eritrea. Members of the Seka of the drought-affected regions in Ethiopia. clan are found mostly in zones 1 and 2 of the Afar Region, and in Eritrea.5 According to the 1996 National Population and Housing Census, the projected population of the Overview of conflict in Afar region was estimated to be 1.4 million by the end of 2006. Some 9% of the inhabitants reside in Conflict in the Afar Regional State has various towns. Assuming that this figure includes non-Afar manifestations: nationalism, inter communal conflict migrants who predominantly settle in towns, the (e.g. Afar-Issa conflict), competition for power among actual percentage of the Afar population residing in political parties, and on some occasions, inter-clan towns may be lower. The Afars’ livelihood is mostly conflict over resources. Of these, Afar nationalism is based on tending livestock. In addition, some also an essential element in conflict in Afar, thus linking have small trading concerns, practice cultivation the three Afar sections that reside in the three (mainly around middle Awash), work as day labourers countries of the Horn: Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti. or as government employees (a small section) to Afar nationalist sentiment grew and developed in generate extra income independent of or in addition response to the lack of fair treatment and neglect to stock tending. Resource depletion due to recurrent by governments that incorporated the Afar within droughts and other external pressure is a serious their administration. Since the Afar currently reside problem that has greatly diminished the size and in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea, it is worthwhile composition of family livestock, which in turn has considering each country separately. resulted in deterioration of living standards. Afar in Ethiopia Afar traditional leadership has historically been divided into various sultanates. There are five sultanates: Following the incorporation of the Afar into the Ethiopian state at the end of the 19th century, • the Tajurah sultanate (the Berhanto Derder sultan) successive Ethiopian regimes’ policy toward the Afar centred in Djibouti; focused largely on extending and strengthening the • Rahayto sultanate (the Danki Derder sultan) along control of the centre, and extracting local resources the border of Ethiopia and Djibouti; chiefly for the benefit of the state (Getachew, 2001: • Aussa sultanate (the fiefdom of sultan Ali Mrah) 46; 2002:787; UN Emergency Unit Ethiopia, 1996:2). centred at Assaita; During the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie I, the Afar • Grifo sultanate centred at Bilu along the border of region in Ethiopia was administratively partitioned Ethiopia and Eritrea; and into five different provinces (Harar, Shoa, Wallo, • Gobaad sultanate in zone three (Gewane) of the Tigray, and Eritrea). The Afar constituted a smaller Afar Region.4 minority within the provinces and were deprived of any political participation. The centre appointed Although the influence and integrity of the sultanates local shums to levy and collect taxes from the locals, is declining due to interaction with external political but provided hardly any public services such as and economic systems, they have generally been health and education. State-centred development recognised as centres and providers of political and projects were enhanced in the area, particularly spiritual leadership. in the Awash Valley, by converting vast grazing Researching local conflicts and regional security Page 2 areas into commercial farming at the expense of Afar in Ethiopia were granted Regional State status the local population (Harbeson, 1978:480). In the – one of the nine autonomous regions. early 1970s, a group of prominent Afars (elders, clan leaders, religious leaders, etc), motivated by Afar Indeed, the Ethiopian move was well appreciated by public resentment over the policies of the central all Afar as a positive step forward. Nonetheless, Afar government, unsuccessfully petitioned the emperor nationalists in Ethiopia are clearly indignant that the to bring the Afar territory (divided under the five widespread Afar aspiration for an Afar state within provinces) under one administrative region. This was Ethiopia has not been fully met, mainly because of defiantly ignored by the emperor (Shehim, 1985:345). the incorporation of the Afar Red Sea Coast within The emperor’s refusal to the Afar plea deepened the newly independent Eritrea.