INTERPRETING MYANMAR A DECADE OF ANALYSIS INTERPRETING MYANMAR A DECADE OF ANALYSIS ANDREW SELTH Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au ISBN (print): 9781760464042 ISBN (online): 9781760464059 WorldCat (print): 1224563457 WorldCat (online): 1224563308 DOI: 10.22459/IM.2020 This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Cover photograph: Yangon, Myanmar by mathes on Bigstock. This edition © 2020 ANU Press CONTENTS Acronyms and abbreviations . xi Glossary . xv Acknowledgements . xvii About the author . xix Protocols and politics . xxi Introduction . 1 THE INTERPRETER POSTS, 2008–2019 2008 1 . Burma: The limits of international action (12:48 AEDT, 7 April 2008) . 13 2 . A storm of protest over Burma (14:47 AEDT, 9 May 2008) . 17 3 . Burma’s continuing fear of invasion (11:09 AEDT, 28 May 2008) . 21 4 . Burma’s armed forces: How loyal? (11:08 AEDT, 6 June 2008) . 25 5 . The Rambo approach to Burma (10:37 AEDT, 20 June 2008) . 29 6 . Burma and the Bush White House (10:11 AEDT, 26 August 2008) . 33 7 . Burma’s opposition movement: A house divided (07:43 AEDT, 25 November 2008) . 37 2009 8 . Is there a Burma–North Korea–Iran nuclear conspiracy? (07:26 AEDT, 25 February 2009) . 43 9 . US–Burma: Where to from here? (14:09 AEDT, 28 April 2009) . .. 47 10 . US–Burma relations: Told you so (15:37 AEDT, 18 May 2009) . 51 11 . Conspiracies and cockups in Burma (11:13 AEDT, 26 May 2009) . 53 12 . Burma: ‘Nationalism is not rationalism’ (10:23 AEDT, 10 June 2009) . 57 13 . Burma–North Korea: Rumour and reality (12:33 AEDT, 29 June 2009) . 61 14 . Burma’s unanswered nuclear question (11:40 AEDT, 3 August 2009) . 65 15 . Burma’s nuclear status: Not the last word, but … (09:24 AEDT, 29 September 2009) . 69 16 . Burma’s ‘superstitious’ leaders (10:25 AEDT, 22 October 2009) . 73 17 . Burma: Obama’s ‘pragmatic engagement’ (11:17 AEDT, 18 November 2009) . 79 2010 18 . Burma: If not nukes, what about missiles? (10:53 AEDT, 11 January 2010) . 87 19 . Burma’s new election laws (14:41 AEDT, 19 March 2010) . 91 20 . Burma: Of arms and the man (17:16 AEDT, 6 April 2010) . 95 21 . Burma, North Korea and US policy (14:59 AEDT, 18 May 2010) . 99 22 . Does Burma have a WMD program? (11:02 AEDT, 7 June 2010) . 103 23 . Burma, North Korea and WMD: A postscript (11:01 AEDT, 10 June 2010) . 107 24 . Burma and the politics of names (13:51 AEDT, 12 July 2010) . 109 25 . Burma: The beast in its entirety (12:08 AEDT, 27 July 2010) . 113 26 . Burma: After the elections, what? (10:07 AEDT, 31 August 2010) . 115 27 . Burma’s elections: Thirteen reasons (10:57 AEDT, 2 November 2010) . 119 28 . Burma-watching on film (13:37 AEDT, 30 November 2010) . 123 2011 29 . Burma: Thanks for the memoirs (15:45 AEDT, 11 January 2011) . 129 30 . Burma and North Korea: Reality checks (15:00 AEDT, 27 April 2011) . 133 31 . Burma and WMD: Lost in translation (11:57 AEDT, 19 May 2011) . 137 32 . Burma and Libya: The politics of inconsistency (11:06 AEDT, 17 June 2011) . 141 33 . Burma and ASEAN’s seat of yearning (11:26 AEDT, 14 September 2011) . 145 34 . Burma–China: Another dam puzzle (Part 1) (12:46 AEDT, 1 November 2011) . 149 35 . Burma–China: Another dam puzzle (Part 2) (16:51 AEDT, 1 November 2011) . 151 36 . Aung San Suu Kyi’s choice (10:30 AEDT, 23 November 2011) . 155 37 . Clinton in Burma: The WMD dimension (16:52 AEDT, 6 December 2011) . 159 2012 38 . Assessing Burma’s reform program (15:04 AEDT, 24 January 2012) . 165 39 . Burma’s reforms: Foreigners can’t take much credit (16:00 AEDT, 30 January 2012) . 169 40 . Burma and WMD: Nothing to report? (08:23 AEDT, 29 March 2012) . 173 41 . Kurt Campbell on US–Burma relations (12:08 AEDT, 27 April 2012) . 177 42 . The Rangoon bombing: A historical footnote (10:11 AEDT, 16 May 2012) . 181 43 . Burma and WMD: In the news again (15:48 AEDT, 1 August 2012) . 185 44 . Burma, the Rohingyas and Australia (10:23 AEDT, 8 October 2012) . 189 45 . Burma: The Man has met The Lady (09:57 AEDT, 23 November 2012) . 193 46 . Burma’s police: The long road to reform (13:45 AEDT, 13 December 2012) . 197 47 . Burma: Eyes on the prize (10:14 AEDT, 18 December 2012) . 201 2013 48 . Defence relations with Burma: Our future past (12:08 AEDT, 4 March 2013) . 207 49 . Burma’s fractious polity: The price of democracy? (11:32 AEDT, 14 March 2013) . 211 50 . Burma’s Muslims: A primer (09:17 AEDT, 27 March 2013) . 215 51 . Aung San Suu Kyi: A pilgrim’s progress (15:34 AEDT, 7 May 2013) . 221 52 . Will Aung San Suu Kyi be President of Burma? (11:20 AEDT, 16 May 2013) . 227 53 . Burma: Conspiracies and other theories (15:28 AEDT, 5 June 2013) . 231 54 . Burma and North Korea: Again? Still (12:58 AEDT, 10 July 2013) . 237 55 . West reaches out to Burma’s security sector (10:13 AEDT, 26 July 2013) . 243 56 . Risk and reward with Burma’s security sector (13:26 AEDT, 26 July 2013) . 247 57 . Burma: What chance another coup? (13:47 AEDT, 9 September 2013) . 251 58 . Burma: Two WMD developments (16:41 AEDT, 8 October 2013) . 257 59 . Aung San Suu Kyi’s risky strategy (15:07 AEDT, 30 October 2013) . 261 60 . Bombings in Burma: The long view (12:33 AEDT, 11 November 2013) . 265 61 . Australia and the Burma/Myanmar name debate (10:08 AEDT, 27 November 2013) . 271 62 . When Aung San Suu Kyi comes to call (10:24 AEDT, 3 December 2013) . 275 2014 63 . Burma puts its stamp on the world: Philately and foreign policy (09:02 AEDT, 7 January 2014) . 281 64 . Myanmar becomes Burma, again (08:32 AEDT, 14 January 2014) . 287 65 . Is Burma really buying submarines? (11:50 AEDT, 29 January 2014) . 291 66 . Burma: A critical look at those chemical weapons claims (14:36 AEDT, 25 February 2014) . 297 67 . Should Burma participate in UN peacekeeping? (10:19 AEDT, 13 May 2014) . 303 68 . Will Aung San Suu Kyi be president? Odds are lengthening (09:05 AEDT, 30 June 2014) . 309 69 . Burma and the Biological Weapons Convention (08:40 AEDT, 15 October 2014) . 315 70 . Aung San Suu Kyi and Kipling’s Burma (10:00 AEDT, 31 October 2014) . 319 71 . Aung San Suu Kyi’s aura is fading (15:10 AEDT, 18 November 2014) . 325 72 . Myanmar Police Force needs more foreign help to reform (15:07 AEDT, 3 December 2014) . 331 73 . Surveying public opinion in Burma (08:01 AEDT, 18 December 2014) . 337 2015 74 . Second thoughts on the civil unrest in Burma (16:28 AEDT, 14 April 2015) . 343 75 . Burma: The return of the ‘vigilantes’ (08:01 AEDT, 22 April 2015) . 349 76 . Burma: Police reforms expand women’s roles (08:49 AEDT, 1 May 2015) . 355 77 . Burma: Beware of unrealistic expectations (10:03 AEDT, 18 June 2015) . 361 78 . Is Naypyidaw setting the agenda in US–China–Burma relations? (10:15 AEDT, 18 September 2015) . 367 79 . Burma’s Tatmadaw: A force to be reckoned with (11:32 AEDT, 22 October 2015) . 373 80 . All change: Election result may see another round of the Burma/ Myanmar name game (08:35 AEDT, 18 November 2015) . 379 2016 81 . The potential for army–police rivalry in Myanmar (10:40 AEDT, 2 February 2016) . 385 82 . Democracy in Myanmar: Who can claim victory? (08:45 AEDT, 29 March 2016) . 389 83 . Old Burma hands write on the ‘odd man out in Asia’ (12:40 AEDT, 6 June 2016) . 395 84 . More name games in Burma/Myanmar (13:34 AEDT, 10 August 2016) . 399 85 . Aung San Suu Kyi’s fall from grace (08:48 AEDT, 8 December 2016) . 405 2017 86 . Myanmar and Aung San: The resurrection of an icon (09:12 AEDT, 31 March 2017) . 413 87 . Suu Kyi’s Myanmar, one year on (09:10 AEDT, 27 April 2017) . 419 88 . Incident at Three Pagodas Pass (13:09 AEDT, 31 May 2017) . 425 89 . A big step back for Myanmar (07:17 AEDT, 13 September 2017) . 431 90 . The Rohingya crisis and Myanmar’s military responses (14:00 AEDT, 24 November 2017) . 437 2018 91 . The Rohingya question: Determining whom to hold to account (09:30 AEDT, 20 April 2018) . 445 92 . The Rohingyas: A new terrorist threat? (06:00 AEDT, 6 September 2018) . 449 2019 93 . Myanmar’s intelligence apparatus under Aung San Suu Kyi (10:00 AEDT, 12 April 2019) . 457 94 . Myanmar: Pariah status no bar to defence modernisation (15:00 AEDT, 7 May 2019) . 461 95 . With new coastguard, Myanmar looks to improve maritime security (06:00 AEDT, 9 September 2019) . 467 96 . Myanmar: Postage stamps and political signals (06:00 AEDT, 30 September 2019) . 471 97 . Aung San Suu Kyi: Why defend the indefensible? (14:00 AEDT, 12 December 2019) . 475 Epilogue . 479 Sam Roggeveen, Director, International Security Program, Lowy Institute, and founding editor of The Interpreter Index .