Defence VOLUME 144 Review SPECIAL ISSUE 2016/1 THE CENTRAL JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN DEFENCE FORCES CONTENTS Preface . 3 SCIENCE THEORY Lt. Gen. Zoltán Orosz: ScientificL ife at the Research Centres of the Hungarian Defence Forces in 2015 . 4 TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM Péter Á. Kiss: First Thoughts about the Terrorist Attacks in Paris and Brussels . 13 Ferenc Kaiser – Péter Tálas: Political Violence and Terrorism . 22 Col. (ret). József Kis-Benedek: Tendencies in the Policy of the Islamic State . 40 Szilveszter Póczik: Foreign Fighters from the Balkans and Hungary in the Middle East . 52 Col. István Resperger – Bálint Somkuti: Hybrid Warfare or the Ever Changing Face of War . 71 Cpt. Zoltán Somodi: Why are Militant Islamist Organizations More Successful in the Middle East than in Central Asia? . 78 MIGRATION György Nógrádi: National Defence With Barbed Wire: the Migration Crisis and its Hungarian Aspects . 90 2 Lt. Col. Tamás Kender: Is Rome Falling? Some Personal Thoughts on Migration and Defence . 105 SECURITY POLICY AND GEOPOLITICS Srdja Trifkovic: Geopolitics Redeemed: Enhancing the Realist Discourse . 117 Georg Schmidt: War and Public Health: Effects of the Syrian Civil War on the Public Health System . 129 Col. Sándor Nagy: Defining Regulators of the European Union’s African Policy and its Dilemmas . 137 Lt. Ákos Treszkai: Security Risks in Africa: Water Conflicts . 146 CONTEMPORARY WARFARE Lt. Col. Endre Szénási: An Unnecessary Conflict: Turkish Downing of Russian Military Aircraft . 158 Lt. Col. József Horváth: „The Battle of Wizards”: The Future of Electronic Warfare . 171 Éva Jakusné Harnos: Changes in Methods of Persuasion in the Light of the Development of the Media . 178 BOOK REVIEWS György Nógrádi: Review of “Az Iszlám Állam – terrorizmus 2.0” (The Islamic State: Terrorism 2 .0) . 189 About the Authors . 190 Editorial Policies . 194 Guidelines for Authors . 196 3 PREFACE This special issue of the Defence Review is continuing a recently established tradition among Hungarian Military Science journals. It is turning into an international forum, where our national military personnel and a growing number of worldwide partners from the US to Germany can share their views. Our purpose is to provide our readers with the most recent information on and analysis of the latest events, because military science must not ignore the events and phenomena that influence our perception of security and everyday life . First, we take a look on the trends and current possibilities and problems of contemporary Hungarian military science, by showing the scientific life in the HDF Research Centres, presenting their research topics and their performance in 2015. We must emphasise that – in addition to their scientific work – our Research Centres’ military personnel have also participated in the defence tasks of the HDF like “Határozott Fellépés” (Determined Stand) and “Közös Akarat” (Common Will) operations. Since the last issue was published in 2015, world-shaking events have occurred. One of the most important problems the international community is currently facing is the increasingly global reach of terrorism . For an understanding of the complexity of the threats, the analysis of the recent terror attacks by Peter Á. Kiss is an essential source. Other authors address the Islamic State’s terrorist organisation and Muslim radicalization. Migration and its effects inspired our authors to share their opinions in connection with security policy. In Hungary, soldiers have supported the border guards and police forces to control the migration crisis at the state borders since September 2015, Tamás Kender and György Nógrádi provide answers on how to respond to this challenge. Other global security risks are also in the sights of our authors. Georg Schmidt and Ákos Treszkai discuss such essential aspects of security risks as the effects of war on public health or water supplies in Africa. In this special issue, we are also taking a close look at the tension between the Turkish and Russian militaries and other aspects of (post-)modern warfighting, such as electronic warfare. I am proudly presenting this issue as a product of our researchers’ national and inter- national contributions and I hope that not only military specialists but also civilian experts will find these papers more than useful. Lieutenant General Zoltán Orosz, Deputy Chief of Defence, Hungarian Defence Forces 4 Science theory Lt. Gen. Zoltán Orosz: SCIENTIFIC LIFE AT THE RESEARCH CENTRES OF THE HUNGARIAN DEFENCE FORCES IN 2015 ABSTRACT: Scientific research has always been very important for the Hungarian Defence Forces. In recent years a network of military research institutions has been developed in order to serve as an institutional framework for science activities directly supporting the interests of the HDF. This research and innovation network has met the expectations but some of its elements require further revision and development. This paper analyses the activity and circumstances of the research centres. KEYWORDS: Hungarian Defence Forces, research institution, scientific research There has always been a need in the Hungarian Defence Forces for directly applicable results of scientific analysis of experiences of recent wars and military operations that can be used in military training and education. Voluntary and proactive research has always supported the complicated process of conversion of the HDF. Scientific work is important for today’s military leaders, as it supports the debates, reveals problems and supports decision makers . On the other hand, lack of information and lack of knowledge of advanced protocols could lead to serious mistakes. The recently founded Research Centres have always confronted the senior leadership of the armed forces with the aspects of science, offering an unbiased opin- ion on those questions that cannot be answered by the strict hierarchical organization itself. Although researchers in the field of military science have met some obstacles recently,1 for the dedicated and enthusiastic soldiers and civilian experts the Research Centres continue to offer opportunities for serious professional work. The centralized organization of mili- tary research synthetizes the efforts, organizes cooperation between institutions separated by organizational structure and location, provides a professional forum, connects various fields, and through cooperation with other scientific areas it contributes to the reputation of military theory in the eyes of society . The spectrum of the research activity of the Centres covers all the areas of military sci- ence. We can be proud of the diversity of research topics, because that shows us that military science is an integrating discipline 2. This is why we have to endeavour to strengthen the connection with all those institutes and associations that have the same profile. The HDF cares about publishing its new scientific results not only in print, but on live forums, too . Our Research Centres organize dozens of events every year: professional fo- rums, conferences, workshops and seminars. We are trying to find ways to draw the attention of college and university students to our research, because they are the next generation of 1 Szenes, Z.: Akadémiai viták a hadtudomány struktúrájáról. (Academic Debates about the Structure of Military Science.) Hadtudomány, XXIII./3–4. 2013, 63. 2 Szabó, M.: A Hadtudományi Bizottság múltja – a hadtudomány jelene. (The Past of the Military Science Committee and the Future of Military Science.) Magyar Tudomány, 2007/12., 1543. Science theory 5 professional intellectuals, experts and decision-makers.3 This is why the education of new generations is so important for the HDF: we have to participate in their training by revealing future challenges, new and practically applicable knowledge that can be used in our national and allied commitments . Military science, though it utilizes the results of basic and applied researches, is basically a practical science: in essence, all military activity is based on experi- ence gained in the field . Military science appears as research result and practical experience as well, that gets incorporated as principles and rules into the system of military knowledge and practice. As Clausewitz says: „[…] for in the same way as many plants only bear fruit when they do not shoot too high, so in the practical arts the theoretical leaves and flowers must not be made to sprout too far, but kept near to experience, which is their proper soil”.4 This is why it is so important for our military scientists to seek modern practical examples and experience, and build applicable theories upon them . At this moment, the Hungarian Defence Forces have six certified Research Centres (the Institute and Museum of Military History, the HDF Joint Force Command Science Centre, the HDF Geoinformation Service, the Science Board of the Military National Security Service, the HDF Medical Centre, and the HDF General Staff Scientific Research Centre) . They work in 14 fields of the military sciences that cover almost all of the areas defined by Zoltán Szenes.5 MOD INSTITUTE AND MUSEUM OF MILITARY HISTORY The Institute is one of the oldest and most prestigious Research Centres of Hungary . The spectrum of its research embraces wide areas of history, especially military history. Their research priorities during the last year were the projects in connection with the centenary of the WW I: theatre of war researches in the regions of Gorlice, Przemysl and Isonzo. Additionally,