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For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications University of Warwick Politics and International Studies Department Living on the Edge: Relocating Kazakhstan on the Margins of Power Davinia Hoggarth A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctoral of Philosophy in Politics and International Studies Submitted September 2015 II I Contents Acknowledgements V Declarations VII Abstract VIII Abbreviations IX Introduction 1 The Birth of ‘Central Asia’ 5 Classical Geopolitics and the Great Game 10 Structure and Scope of the Thesis 20 Chapter 1 – Methodology 28 Theory versus Practise 34 Chapter 2 – Literature Review 41 Geopolitics and Marginality 42 Strategic Culture 58 Central Asia 66 Chapter 3 – Eurasia: Marginal States and Great Powers 81 Entanglement of Security, Grand Strategy and Energy 85 Competing Eurasianisms 94 Energy as Foreign Policy and Strategy in Kazakhstan 108 Chapter 4 – Kazakhstan: Oil and Governance 114 Introduction to Kazakh Energy industry 117 Explaining KMGs Strategy and Performance 123 Relationship between Government and IOCs 136 Relationship between KMG, IOCs and the Government 139 II Relationship between KMG and the Public 141 Prospects for Reform 143 Kazakhstan; An Assessment 147 Chapter 5 – Old Friends? Living on the Margins of Russia 155 Conceptualising Kazakhstan, Russia and Eurasia 159 The Kazakh Post-Soviet Identity 166 Economic Relations between Kazakhstan and Russia 172 Pipeline Politics; Russia, Kazakhstan and post-Soviet Energy Security 177 Kazakh Military Dependence 185 Chapter 6 – Kazakhstan and China: Is Mercantilism ‘Going Out’ in Kazakhstan? 198 China the Global Actor 202 China the ‘Mercantilist’ 206 China Going Global… in Kazakhstan 212 Kazakhstan’s Engagement with China 214 Squeezing Out Russia 221 Contrasts with Western Approaches 224 Chapter 7 – Mirage on the Steppe: Kazakhstan, the EU, Europe and the US 228 Cultural Exchange and Historical Ties 232 The American Government and the Battles for the Silk Road 235 US Involvement and Lessons Learnt 245 European Firms, the EU and European states in Kazakhstan 253 Should Kazakhstan’s Industry be a Bit more European? 258 Separation Success? 263 III Conclusion 272 Future Research 288 Primary Sources and Bibliography i IV V Acknowledgements When I eventually plucked up the courage to leave the hotel on my first day in Almaty it was - 20°c. I dressed myself up like the Michelin man and, navigating the foot of ice on the pavement as gracefully as a giraffe on skates, I set off into the night. I think I wondered around just long enough to become slightly hysterical for lack of food, for my face to go purple and blotchy, and a general panic about my life choices to set in. Luckily for me, Kamilya Omarova saw me and took pity. She was the first person I met in Kazakhstan and she guided me about the city, prevented my imminent starvation, and took me ice skating in the Tien Shen Mountains. This pretty much sums up my entire experience of the PhD and of Kazakhstan. I’ve wildly flailed about on the ice rink of academia, propped up by incredibly kind and generous people. And now I finally get to say thank you. The University of Warwick Politics and International Studies Department has been more than my place of work, it’s been my home for five years and I’m incredibly grateful to all the staff and academics who have made it such a wonderful place to inhabit. Quite honestly, I don’t know if I’m ever going to have this much fun anywhere else. The department has produced some outstanding nutters in its time, and I have had the pleasure of meeting some of its finest. Zakia Shiraz, Andrew Hammond and Simon Willmetts you have been the best friends I could have hoped for on this journey and you have changed me for the better; we’ve hunted for freedom in California, Amsterdam and New Orleans, and I wouldn’t change a goddam minute of it. Stoned, naked Frisbee anyone? Other members of what some other politics departments apparently refer to as the Warwick Mafia have inspired me too. Chris Browning in particular came in at the eleventh hour to bring me back from the edge of a theoretical faux pas. Peter Ferdinand, as my second supervisor, has helped test my ideas about a subject I was horribly unfamiliar with upon starting. Others in the department deserve mention for what they represent; Matthew Watson you lead by example and in doing so inspire us all to live by what we write. Through the PhD community I have met some incredible and incredibly interesting people, and some of you have even suffered through being my house or office mates. Lauren Tooker, you have not only helped me when I was falling apart but also when I needed a dance in Wilde’s, and for doing both so well I will always be grateful. It’s not really possible to thank an entire country, but Kazakhstan has shown me great kindness and this thesis is my wordy and dense love letter to the most beautiful of all the Central Asian states. It’s also produced some of the worst food on the Eurasian continent and if I never eat another plov again it won’t be too soon. It has been a pleasure and a privilege to have studied at KIMEP University, Almaty and I especially want to acknowledge the generosity of the Politics Department who have provided me with a sanctuary within which to work. I got to meet some fantastic people from all over the world who made the year something to remember, and the best bit is I’ve got to see so damn many of them again. Thank goodness it’s a small world. Special mention should go to Cobus Block for managing six months in a confined office space with only me for company. Jon Jay, you opened my eyes to the beauty of the Kazakh Mountains, and so much more besides, so thank you for all the adventures. Saranna, Abe, and Julia, you guys were juuuuust wonderful companions through extraordinary times. VI Not everyone I want to thank is still about, but Alexandros Peterson know this, you are the reason I chose this damn subject, you inspired me to go traipsing across the Steppe, but that doesn’t mean I’ve forgotten you owe me a bottle of Bishkek cognac. I miss your company so very much. What a family: ‘eccentric’ just doesn’t do them justice. Mum, I don’t say thank you often enough. If I have achieved anything, it is because you have made it happen. You even proof read the damn thing. Dad, thank you for your unwavering support and interest in my work, even when I’m difficult, which is most of the time. Most people spend time with their grandparents because they have to, but I hang out with mine because I just really, really enjoy their company. Gan and Gum, thank you for always being my port in the storm. Is there anyone I’ve forgotten? The library café staff? The post room maybe? Mmm, who else is there? Ah yes. Prof Richard James Aldrich. Richard, quite frankly it’s been like having Batman, Frank Underwood and Mary Poppins all rolled into one supervisor. You have not only shaped this thesis but I can honestly say that I feel a more confident and creative person because of your wisdom and encouragement over many years. There are very few people, let alone supervisors, that go to the lengths you do to help those you care about. When you call in the debt it’s going to be messy. I’ll get the shovel. I have never felt luckier than I do right now, so one last time, all of you, thank you. Holy smokes, she’s only gone and done it. VII Declaration I hereby declare that the work contained in this thesis is my own, that the thesis contains no published material that did not arise from work on the thesis or material that has been used in another thesis, and that the thesis has not been submitted for examination for a degree at another university. VIII Abstract Living on the Edge: Relocating Kazakhstan on the Margins of Power In contrast to the Great Game narrative, this thesis demonstrates the extent and limitations of Kazakhstan in generating autonomy. It provides a detailed account of the tactical and strategic choices that the state has made, particularly through its energy industry, to improve its position relative to Russia, China and the West. Using the innovative marginality literature, this thesis reimagines the Central Asian state as more powerful regional actor than has previously envisioned. Moreover, it explores how Kazakhstan is able to effect change in Russian and Chinese foreign policy, and exemplifies a marginal state affecting the centres of power. To demonstrate this, the thesis examines the strategic choices of the Kazak state, its governance structure and the changing identity politics. As geopolitics becomes increasingly antagonistic in Europe, it is vitally important that we understand how these large states are ‘playing’ overseas. It is suggested that Kazakhstan is not a “small” or a “weak” state and from its position on the periphery has exercised remarkable leverage: it is a prism thought which we can see the truly multi-polar nature of world politics in the second decade of the twenty-first century.